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eridani

(51,907 posts)
Tue May 17, 2016, 05:45 AM May 2016

This scientist just changed how we think about climate change with one GIF

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/05/11/this-scientist-just-changed-how-we-think-about-climate-change-with-one-gif/

The image has resonated for a number of reasons — one of them being, as Hawkins says, that it “doesn’t require any complex interpretation.” It uses data that was always there, of course — data from the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Center which document the globe’s average temperature anomaly monthly and annually going back to the year 1850. (Two U.S. agencies, NASA and NOAA, do the same but only go back to 1880).

Hawkins took these monthly temperature data and plotted them in the form of a spiral, so that for each year, there are twelve points, one for each month, around the center of a circle – with warmer temperatures farther outward and colder temperatures nearer inward. At the same time, he took the pre-industrial baseline temperature to be the average temperature from 1850 to 1900, and put out markers for where a 1.5 degree Celsius rise above that temperature would be, and where at 2 degree Celsius rise would be, in the form of larger, red concentric circles.

And then, of course, he made the whole thing animated and tweetable.

47 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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This scientist just changed how we think about climate change with one GIF (Original Post) eridani May 2016 OP
Brilliant! Bob Loblaw May 2016 #1
That is terrifying. SusanCalvin May 2016 #2
Looks like we are about to step things up a bit this year. Yeah us. n/t A Simple Game May 2016 #3
Wow yardwork May 2016 #4
You wish the headline to be true Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #5
I think they may be too busy dying to ask questions. It's gonna be a much different jtuck004 May 2016 #11
I meant -- ask them these days. Now. Hence the question is in future tense, to be asked now. nt Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #14
I know, but it makes little difference. They are too busy with their texting and cell phones and jtuck004 May 2016 #18
It saddens me to see you only are critical of Republicons. The corporations have to make rhett o rick May 2016 #25
No. Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #35
You can see it accelerating alfredo May 2016 #6
It's a trick (lying with graphs), though I think there is acceleration in the last 15 years. Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #13
OK alfredo May 2016 #15
It's still linear. Just depicted in a circle... Beartracks May 2016 #29
No. Linear lines, not linear rate of change. It turns a linear rate into a squared 'geometric' rate. Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #34
Do you think that once you actually see them? muriel_volestrangler May 2016 #39
Nice example. Thx for posting. Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #40
OK, so you're saying the 'equal radius' one is right, but you don't think we should use it? muriel_volestrangler May 2016 #41
The point is real data has IRregular increments. Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #42
You've agreed that there aren't 'perceptual overlays' for the linear radial plot muriel_volestrangler May 2016 #43
No, I have NOT agreed. Please read more carefully. I write carefully. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #44
" When the increments are regular, it is easy to assess as regular" muriel_volestrangler May 2016 #45
I wrote carefully. I carefully limited the ease of assessment to regular increments. ONLY. Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #46
You started this sub-thread by stating they are 'lying with graphs' muriel_volestrangler May 2016 #47
Kicked and recommended! nt Enthusiast May 2016 #7
K&R.. disillusioned73 May 2016 #8
But God himself could come down and tell the tea baggers that, and it wouldn't do any good. forest444 May 2016 #9
Yes and these people don't mind getting to heaven a bit sooner. peace13 May 2016 #10
Are you saying that God can't stop it? Hell humans have only been on earth a very short time. rhett o rick May 2016 #26
Well her people experiment will be doomed. peace13 May 2016 #30
The world will be OK as soon JEB May 2016 #12
STOP BlancheSplanchnik May 2016 #16
+1 chknltl May 2016 #19
But...but...Sen. Inhofe tossed a snowball in the Senate! KansDem May 2016 #17
To the deniers, this will mean nothing MynameisBlarney May 2016 #20
The deniers who also don't understand math and graphs SCantiGOP May 2016 #21
They ain't exactly known MynameisBlarney May 2016 #38
There is a candidate who thinks this #1issue... chknltl May 2016 #22
God put the fossil fuels in the ground sulphurdunn May 2016 #23
This message was self-deleted by its author cyberpj May 2016 #24
Very nice. BillZBubb May 2016 #27
I am convinced that there is nothing we can do to stop this. We are rhett o rick May 2016 #28
Even Nestle Corporation, Thespian2 May 2016 #31
Where is it going? 7962 May 2016 #32
Please note Thespian2 May 2016 #33
Wow jpmonk91 May 2016 #36
Chilling (well... I mean.... you know...) Recursion May 2016 #37

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)
5. You wish the headline to be true
Tue May 17, 2016, 07:50 AM
May 2016

The global warming is true. However, ....

You wish the headline to be true, but I'm not optimistic that many minds will be changed by the GIF. Most minds are relatively hardened in their positions.

If you want to change fossilized Republican minds to change, get their children and grandchildren asking "When the world is burning what will I have to tell my children about what you did or didn't do to save it?"

 

jtuck004

(15,882 posts)
11. I think they may be too busy dying to ask questions. It's gonna be a much different
Tue May 17, 2016, 08:53 AM
May 2016

world since the 99% left it to the people who would destroy it.

 

jtuck004

(15,882 posts)
18. I know, but it makes little difference. They are too busy with their texting and cell phones and
Tue May 17, 2016, 01:36 PM
May 2016

netflix to give a flying rat's ass about what appears to interest you in this.

If they really cared, and perhaps, sat and read books long enough to understand something that takes a little study, they might be standing in the roads preventing us from burning anything else - since we have already passed a couple of important milestones, earlier than many thought.

But they don't. Whether enough will b-4 everyone is screaming is still up in the air.

They are late to a game in which the losers die. Not a great start.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
25. It saddens me to see you only are critical of Republicons. The corporations have to make
Tue May 17, 2016, 08:16 PM
May 2016

profits and they must do that by exploiting the earth and there is no way to stop this trend let alone reverse it. And it's not only Republicons but many Corporatist Democrats also.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)
35. No.
Wed May 18, 2016, 12:25 AM
May 2016

Republicans are at the root of the problem but, as you rightly say, not the only ones. Change the Republicans and the "corporatist Democrats" will have already changed by then.

But even more importantly, for winning the political debate, it is a big mistake to equate exploitation of the earth with unsustainable exploitation. It is a failure of imagination to not see sustainable exploitation.

All corporations and all people, by long chains of actions and effects, exploit the earth more or less directly. Good corporations and good people exploit it as sustainably as possible; more and more sustainably as knowledge and technology grow.

Rapacious corporations are evil. Sustainable corporations are good (this includes issues like living wages).

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)
13. It's a trick (lying with graphs), though I think there is acceleration in the last 15 years.
Tue May 17, 2016, 11:44 AM
May 2016

What's happening is that the temperature is measured on a linear scale, but the line linking points circumscribes an area. Area increases as the square of the linear temperature axis.

Beartracks

(12,809 posts)
29. It's still linear. Just depicted in a circle...
Tue May 17, 2016, 08:42 PM
May 2016

... so that the graph isn't 100 feet long.

The temperature increase is still depicted by how close the line gets to the 1.5 red line (or, God forbid, the 2.0 line), not in how much area is circumscribed within it.

I think the effect of wrapping this graph into a circle shape will, however, make the line appear to move "faster" as it edges toward the red lines, because the arc between months will get longer -- just as the tip of a clock's second hand moves faster/farther than the part near the center.

======================

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)
34. No. Linear lines, not linear rate of change. It turns a linear rate into a squared 'geometric' rate.
Wed May 18, 2016, 12:10 AM
May 2016

For example, take an x-y axis graph consisting of a single line (linear rate of change), say 45 degrees for ease of demonstration.

Let the y axis ("temperature&quot become the radial axis at a 10:1 ratio (a linear ratio). It doesn't matter what ratio you choose, the effect is the same, but 10:1 is convenient for demonstration. Let the first 'y' start at 100, so the radial axis starts at 10.

Let the x axis ("years&quot become 10 steps around the circle = +10 in x. Again, the number of steps does not change the effect, but 10 is convenient for demonstration.

So, in the first 10 years, the x-y graph goes x from 0 to 10 and the y from 100 to 110. On the radial graph, the first wind around (x from 0 to 10) goes radially from 10 to 11. That fits outside a circle of radius 10 and inside a circle of radius 11. That is an area (pi-r-squared) of (3.14 x 11 x 11) - (3.14 x 10 x 10) = 380 - 314 = 66.

In the last 100 years, the x-y graph goes from 90 to 100 and the y from 190 to 200 (maintaining the linear rate of change). On the radial graph, the last wind goes radially from 19 to 20. That fits outside a circle of radius 19 and inside a circle of radius 20. That is an area of (3.14 x 20 x 20) - (3.14 x 19 x 19) = 1257 - 1134 = 123.

123 is not 66.

On the x-y graph, a linear rate of change has been converted to a varying rate of change, a rate of change that varies depending on how far you are from the center. That biases the radial graph to making later change seem much bigger than earlier change. Perceptually.

Similarly, as you point out, the step lines on the radial graph get longer as you get farther out, even though on the x-y graph each step is identical to every other step in our demonstration. The first step 0 to 1 in x is a line one tenth of circumference (2-pi-r) of about length (6.28 x 10) / 10 = 6.28. The last step 99 to 100 in x is a line one tenth of a larger circumference on the radial graph of about length (6.28 x 99) / 10 = 62.2. This is much longer and compounds the perceptual bias.

So the radial graph is a good example of how to lie with statistics and graphs.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,306 posts)
39. Do you think that once you actually see them?
Wed May 18, 2016, 06:16 PM
May 2016

This is increments of equal radius:


This is increments of equal area:


Me, I'd say the graph with equal radius increments is the one that looks 'steady'.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)
40. Nice example. Thx for posting.
Wed May 18, 2016, 06:27 PM
May 2016

When the increments are regular, it is easy to assess as regular. But in real data they almost never are. Then the perceptual uncertainty becomes an overlay.

A basic x-y graph is easy to assess and there is no question about perceptual effects.

When debating climate change with skeptics and deniers don't give them any cracks they can drive wedges into. Give them clear well-labelled direct x-y graphs and then they won't be able to quibble about graphic presentation.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,306 posts)
41. OK, so you're saying the 'equal radius' one is right, but you don't think we should use it?
Wed May 18, 2016, 06:29 PM
May 2016

If regular increments can be assessed as regular, then that's what we want, isn't it? Not a 'lie' as you said earlier.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)
42. The point is real data has IRregular increments.
Wed May 18, 2016, 06:39 PM
May 2016

But if you don't want to lie, present a familiar direct easy to parse well-labelled x-y graph.

If you want to lie or dramatize or exaggerate, then present the viewer with an unfamiliar graphing technique which has perceptual overlays that have to be untangled.

Read two books: "How to Lie with Statistics" and "How to Lie with Graphs". Then read a book by Edward Tufte: "The Visual Display of Quantitative Information", second edition or "Envisioning Information". I have the latter and it is excellent. It illustrates complex presentation techniques for complex data. Climate temperature change is not complex.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,306 posts)
43. You've agreed that there aren't 'perceptual overlays' for the linear radial plot
Wed May 18, 2016, 06:43 PM
May 2016

But you're lumping it in with graphs that " lie or dramatize or exaggerate".

Yes, real data has irregular increments. But if regular increments look regular, then the irregular ones will appear in the correct proportions.

If you want to trash someone else's idea, say "lie" a lot when talking about it, and don't worry if your argument is consistent.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,306 posts)
45. " When the increments are regular, it is easy to assess as regular"
Wed May 18, 2016, 07:11 PM
May 2016

Right, so the scale is linear, and easy to assess as such. That is therefore the only scale that will allow decent assessment of variations. By definition because any other scale would distort a regular increment.

No, you'd like to think you write carefully.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)
46. I wrote carefully. I carefully limited the ease of assessment to regular increments. ONLY.
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:08 PM
May 2016

Give it a rest.

You are arguing only for the sake of arguing.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,306 posts)
47. You started this sub-thread by stating they are 'lying with graphs'
Thu May 19, 2016, 04:00 AM
May 2016

I am arguing to show that you were mistaken about the linear scale being misleading, and to show you are wrong to accuse them of 'lying'. I don't want anyone to spread the misstatements you have made. You claim, illogically, that while a linear scale shows a regular increase fine, an irregular increase is somehow distorted. You advocated a different scale that you admit shows a regular increase badly, but think that any irregular increase will magically be shown clearly by it - no matter what the variation from regularity is, as far as I can tell.

If your multiple accusations of lying are 'careful writing', then you appear to be maliciously attacking the presentation of evidence of global warming. That would make it extremely important to continue to demonstrate how wrong you are.

forest444

(5,902 posts)
9. But God himself could come down and tell the tea baggers that, and it wouldn't do any good.
Tue May 17, 2016, 08:43 AM
May 2016

Such is the power of brainwashing.

They should be sent to live in Miami - after it sinks into the Atlantic.

 

peace13

(11,076 posts)
10. Yes and these people don't mind getting to heaven a bit sooner.
Tue May 17, 2016, 08:50 AM
May 2016

Wait until they find out how angry God is for what we did to her Planet! : )

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
26. Are you saying that God can't stop it? Hell humans have only been on earth a very short time.
Tue May 17, 2016, 08:20 PM
May 2016

There will be many generations of species after we are gone. It's a little audacious to think that God cares what happens to us more than the millions of species that we've helped meet extinction.

 

peace13

(11,076 posts)
30. Well her people experiment will be doomed.
Tue May 17, 2016, 09:41 PM
May 2016

And no, I think the planet would be A+ fine without the dirty humans. I am a little audacious in my thinking about the people concept. You know the good books are full of what humans should and shouldn't do so I have had that fake importance drilled into me from childhood. I pretty much don't worry about a god watching me anymore. I've moved on! Have an awesome evening!

BlancheSplanchnik

(20,219 posts)
16. STOP
Tue May 17, 2016, 12:49 PM
May 2016

PUMPING OUT BABIES, PEOPLE.

The days of "be fruitful and multiply", "have as many as you want, it's your individual right" are OVER. OVER. OVER.

chknltl

(10,558 posts)
19. +1
Tue May 17, 2016, 01:39 PM
May 2016

For reasons i still don't understand I never had any kids. I am not unhappy about that...all things considered.

SCantiGOP

(13,869 posts)
21. The deniers who also don't understand math and graphs
Tue May 17, 2016, 01:58 PM
May 2016

which is probably most of them, so your point is probably mostly true.

chknltl

(10,558 posts)
22. There is a candidate who thinks this #1issue...
Tue May 17, 2016, 02:09 PM
May 2016

...sadly corporatism has a bottom line-a bottom line which is in direct conflict with the needs of life on our planet. How easy it is for us at DU to blame the Republicans when it is equally easy to see our own representatives siding with the corporatists....hypocrisy!

I hear from fellow DUers that they vote for equality, equal suffering is the promise they refuse to see for the children of our planet!

One candidate-exactly one candidate stood before the one country that could make a difference. ....and said that global climate change is the biggest threat to our country. Like him or not, he is correct.

I hope when your kids are old enough to understand....well maybe the time for hypocrisy will be over by then.

 

sulphurdunn

(6,891 posts)
23. God put the fossil fuels in the ground
Tue May 17, 2016, 05:03 PM
May 2016

for us to use up. Jesus will fix the climate when he returns.

Response to eridani (Original post)

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
28. I am convinced that there is nothing we can do to stop this. We are
Tue May 17, 2016, 08:25 PM
May 2016

addicted to more and more energy taken from our planet that isn't recoverable. The Capitalists want more and more and are willing to go to war (Bush/Cheney/Clinton) to get more and more. Some people dream of a post-capitalism economy. Post-Capitalism will find us extinct.

Thespian2

(2,741 posts)
31. Even Nestle Corporation,
Tue May 17, 2016, 10:31 PM
May 2016

the biggest water thief on the planet, warned that fresh water to grow fruits and vegetables would soon be in short supply...I take soon to mean about a decade...

Thespian2

(2,741 posts)
33. Please note
Tue May 17, 2016, 10:51 PM
May 2016

I said "fresh" water...meaning not polluted...

If one prefers food grown in polluted water, then make sure the package came from China...

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