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Lheurch

(65 posts)
Mon Jun 24, 2019, 04:29 PM Jun 2019

The Simulation Hypothesis

Philosopher Nick Bostrom postulated the most popular version of this argument, but it has been around far longer. In 2003 he said one of these three things was almost certainly true:

1. The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero;
2. The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero;
3. The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.

From a sheer logical/mathematical perspective, we are likely living in a simulation, but recently I compiled a list of other reasons we likely are. There are two main ones that are somewhat related.

1. Quantum entanglement/nonlocality

Einstein called it "spooky action at a distance" and refused to believe it was true. However, Niels Bohr and others said it was an provable part of reality at the quantum level. Several experiments have been done and so far they all confirm it is true. I remember reading about an experiment done in I believe China where they entangled photons and measured the time it took for the second one to react to what they did to the first one. After eliminating the measuring time, the conclusion was that it was at least 144,000 times faster than the speed of light. General relativity states that no information and no "thing" with mass greater than 0 can ever travel faster than the speed of light. However, quantum mechanics states that this "communication" between entangled items happens instantaneously. That means if we shot one half of an entangled pair into space say eight light minutes away (around the distance of the sun from Earth) and had a crew in a ship looking at it, they would observe the change instantly even though they could not tell us about it for eight minutes. The same could be said even if these two particles were galaxies apart.

Now, think of an environment where this is also true. In a video game, all points of space represented in the game are equidistant from the processor running the game.

2. The more compelling case - the double slit experiments

I am guessing most of you have heard of the double slit experiments. Basically you shoot two photons or electrons (though they have now done this with whole atoms and even buckyballs) at a piece of paper with two slits cut out. On the far side you have a screen that absorbs them. When this was first done, the photons formed an interference pattern, implying they had gone through both slits and behaved as waves, not particles. Later, experiments were done that placed detectors before the slits to see if they were indeed going through both. Surprisingly, once measured they behaved as particles, only going through one of the slits and formed clump patterns on the screen. Amazingly, this showed that the photons did not actually exist as a particle until they were measured. Until then they existed as a "wave of possible locations." John Wheeler designed a further experiment where the detectors were placed AFTER the slits which meant the photons had to decide if they were waves or particles before they were measured. Shockingly, the experiment yielded the same results. If they were eventually measured, they behaved as particles even though that would mean they had to know what would eventually happen before it happened. Some people believe this implies retro causality, that is, they communicated back into the past as to how to behave. Let me be clear, almost every physicist I have heard talk about that does not believe they are communicating with themselves in the past, but the results SEEM to imply this to me.

A further experiment was done in 1999 that is known as Delayed Choice Quantum Eraser. It is a bit complicated, so if you want to see the complete setup just Google it. Basically a photon is fired at the slits the same as before but is then split into an entangled pair using a prism, meaning that whatever happens to one will happen to the other as I explained above. Photon one is directed at a detector immediately while the second one passes through a maze of half-silvered mirrors which mean each photon has a 50% chance of going to one route or the other. Google for the whole explanation but basically at the end of the maze are four detectors, two of which we know for sure which slit the photon passed through and two where we do not know because of the path. In every case, when the photons were matched up to their entangled pairs at detector one, the pattern matched as either a wave or particle depending on if we had the data knowing which slit it went through. That meant that the photon at detector one made its "decision" to behave as a wave or particle BEFORE its entangled pair had gone through the maze and knew whether or not it was going to be detected. That implies backwards time travel to me, but physicists say it does not and I am not a physicist.

Now, the idea that reality is not real until it is measured or observed is the same idea in a video game. The background and items are not rendered on the screen until they are needed. This would also make sense if you were building a universe simulation to save on processing power.

So, ultimately if we are living in a simulation it would answer these questions:

1. Explains how quantum entanglement can happen instantaneously at unlimited distances
2. Explains why particles do not exist until they are needed to exist
3. Explains the Fermi Paradox. Why do we have no evidence of alien life even though the universe is full of the same elements that are common on Earth and we are made up of the most common elements? This would make sense if the simulators wanted to save on processing power.
4. Explains Donald Trump. Seriously, the simulators would be interested in watching turning points in history, not boring stuff. All of our memories before the events leading up to the last election could be simulated too. It is also possible and I would argue likely that any simulation is not going to be running in real time. If they are simulating all of history, it is possible the past 13.7 billion years of history ran in just a few seconds on a computer. The simulators could slow it down, rewind it, reboot it, all without us being aware.

What do you think? I think we most likely are.

23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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RockRaven

(18,951 posts)
1. I'm not a philosopher, but maybe the notion of human v posthuman civilization is not coherent enough
Mon Jun 24, 2019, 04:55 PM
Jun 2019

to give statements which contain it any useful meaning.

 

Lheurch

(65 posts)
9. I agree
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 12:27 PM
Jun 2019

I would not have used posthuman if I had made the argument, I was just quoting. I think it is highly likely our own civilization will reach the point of simulating reality.

Karadeniz

(24,732 posts)
2. This is very mystical. Buddhists, I think, say that this reality is not reality. Some early
Mon Jun 24, 2019, 05:07 PM
Jun 2019

Christian thinkers maintained that Jesus merely seemed to be. In my system, there are different levels of reality, but existing in the present.

There was one experiment with "prayer." I'm not sure I can remember the details. We know thoughts produce physical results, in the case of positive thoughts showing a beneficial effect on a group so treated versus a group not exposed to positivity. Someone wanted to see if positivity could work backwards. Files of past patients were gathered and divided. Half were sent positive thoughts, the other half ignored. When the outcomes of the patients were reviewed, the positivity group's results were better than the other group's, even though all the cases were closed.

Hardly a study which could withstand scientific standards, it does make one wonder if the past is settled.

 

Lheurch

(65 posts)
8. There have been several scientific prayer studies
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 12:24 PM
Jun 2019

All have shown that is makes no difference with one caveat. The person must be unaware that someone is praying for them, because it has shown to resemble the placebo effect. But it does show there is no man in the sky intervening.

caraher

(6,356 posts)
4. "...we are likely living in a simulation" Why?
Mon Jun 24, 2019, 11:29 PM
Jun 2019

I really don't understand assertions like, "From a sheer logical/mathematical perspective, we are likely living in a simulation..." Could you explain how this is so? I don't see how mathematics or logic can speak to what is "real" vs. "simulated" in any way that connects with how I would make a distinction between living in a simulation and not living in a simulation.

I am a physicist who has worked with so-called entangled photons. It's certainly true that one could explain some of the ways in which experiment confounds intuition by appeal to "living in a simulation." Others might make similar cases for some kind of divine hand intervening, or for a universal consciousness being at work. You can cling to a certain kind of realism and accept retrocausality or nonlocality. You can decide quantum mechanics is just a great way to predict experimental results and shy away from saying what is "really" happening. You can appeal to yet-undiscovered physics to explain entanglement (perhaps there are connections through other dimensions that somehow restore locality?).

I think it's always important to make connections with experiment and you mention a lot of great ones. But the one general trend I see when it comes to how to interpret the big picture is that favored interpretations tend to tell more about the philosophical proclivities of the interpreter than which ones are more likely than others. I'm pretty much in a generally skeptical position with respect to any of them. The main thing that is definitely established by experiment is that the kind of local realism Einstein laid on in the "EPR" paper is untenable. Most physicists I chat with just say it proves quantum theory is not local, which I tend to agree with. Earlier I wrote "so-called entangled photons" mainly because my own inclination is to question the appropriateness of using a language of separateness. I like to think in terms of a nonlocalized entity with definite properties rather than two distinct particles that magically communicate. But I also recognize that as just a reflection of my own proclivities, and that I may now be blind to some aspect of the situation that would cause me to abandon that view.

 

Lheurch

(65 posts)
6. The mathematical argument is this:
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 12:05 PM
Jun 2019

If it is true that creating a simulation of reality that is indistinguishable from reality is possible, and I agree that is unproven, but given our progress from Pong to where we are today it seems likely to be possible, then "base reality" will be able to create a large amount of simulations. Inside each simulation could be billions or trillions of simulated consciousnesses. That would mean that simulated minds would outnumber "natural" minds on a order of billions or trillions to one. So by sheer mathematical probability, you would likely be living in a simulation.

 

Lheurch

(65 posts)
7. I agree
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 12:14 PM
Jun 2019

That is why I mentioned the two main experiments that have been done that convince me that it is likely we are simulated. Of course, neither proves it one way or the other, but for me if one day we actually can create a simulated reality that is indistinguishable from our reality, that would at least show from a probability perspective that we are likely simulated ourselves.

The hard problem in this is consciousness. What is consciousness? No one knows. That, above any of the technological issues is the main problem. It may not be possible to simulate consciousness, but if all we are is a series of biological processes, then I think it is likely we will be able to one day understand it and simulate it.

One more thing...I do not think us being simulated takes away at all from the realness of our experiences. A lot of people when they hear the argument will say things like "Oh, so nothing matters?" but I disagree. The one thing we know is true is we are conscious. Whether our brains are physical or virtual is ultimately irrelevant as to how we behave and live our lives, with the possible exception of, if we are simulated we might want to be as entertaining as possible to avoid being shut off

qazplm135

(7,654 posts)
18. I don't think either of those experiments
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 04:11 PM
Jun 2019

provide "extraordinary evidence."

The double slit experiment can be used to argue for all sorts of things. It can argue for anything from God (the ultimate "observer" ) to a whole host of other ideas, including, yes, simulation. But that very fact means it's not extraordinary evidence for a simulation.

Quantum entanglement same thing. Yes, it could be evidence of a simulation, or a half dozen other things.

Yes, if we could perform a simulation that created all of the physical rules of our universe, in "real time" then that would maybe be proof of concept. But we can't yet, and even if we could, that doesn't necessarily follow that we are a simulation.

Nothing actually does matter but that we make it so.

1,000 years from now, almost no one will know anything about us. MAYBE they will know about Obama. Probably not. They MIGHT remember some seminal incident that changed things fundamentally. More likely, time will have morphed the truth into something fairly less recognizable to us.

10,000 years from now, nothing we will have done will be remembered.

1 million years from now humanity might not even exist at all, or will have splintered into several different species or a whole new species altogether.

Etc, etc.

We are born for no reason, live for no reason (other than what we make it), and then die, forever extinguished.
Heck, being virtual vice physical actually gives our lives MORE meaning and purpose.

hunter

(40,477 posts)
10. It's just another flavor of Creationism.
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 01:24 PM
Jun 2019

God made a man out of clay and breathed life into him.

God made a computer...

The people who wrote Genesis thought it terms of clay.

We think in terms of computers.

The Simulation Hypothesis is no closer to describing Reality than any other Creation Myth.

The "weirdness" we perceive in quantum physics, and even in time itself, is an artifact of our mental processes. Human understanding of many things is very severely constrained by our evolutionary history.

 

Lheurch

(65 posts)
11. Nonsense
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 01:38 PM
Jun 2019

Creationism is based on faith, which is the purposeful suspension of critical thinking. Science is based on experimentation and reality.

Do you believe it is possible using technology to simulate reality? If not, why not? What experiment or trend in technology over the last 50+ years can you point to in order to suggest it is not possible? If you do believe so, what flaw do you find in the argument that simulated consciousnesses will undoubtedly outnumber "natural" ones?

qazplm135

(7,654 posts)
19. We haven't reached the experimentation phase yet
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 04:13 PM
Jun 2019

for simulation theory so right now, it's the same level as creationism.

Are there ways to test it? Maybe. But right now, we don't have them.

All we have is a thought experiment.

hunter

(40,477 posts)
21. I'm a huge supporter of artificial intelligence research and occasional participant.
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 05:50 PM
Jun 2019

But that's not my point.

The hubris of the "Simulation Hypothesis" is quite astonishing.

Like a Terracotta Army.



I think there are only a few dozen humans on earth who have any kind of intuitive understanding of quantum mechanics. They all know each other. I'm not a member of that club.

Sophisticated understanding of the math and physics involved is somewhat more common and that's where the experimental science takes place, and it's where any evidence for a Simulation Hypothesis might be found.

Maybe at CERN. The world wide web was invented there, after all.

Of course if I was some vain Creator of this Universe myself (and who knows I may be some brain damaged minor god caught up in my own simulation), I would make it impossible for my simulation to go there.

My favorite Creation Myths are simple.

Yep, we were pushed out of some kind of Cosmic Vagina. We came out of Mother Universe over there, under that rock..

Birth is a messy business.

The answer to the Fermi Paradox is simple. The speed of light is absolute. No warp drives, no time travel. Successful intelligent species retreat to actual physical universes, not simulations, of their own creation. Unsuccessful species who believe themselves intelligent just die.

 

Lheurch

(65 posts)
13. That definitely could be true
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 02:05 PM
Jun 2019

As Churchill said, "the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."

Ptah

(34,047 posts)
14. Translation: your first premise is hogwash.
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 02:11 PM
Jun 2019

1. The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero;

Ptah

(34,047 posts)
16. Do you have any data to back your first premise?
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 02:24 PM
Jun 2019

1. The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero;




How many human-level civilizations have you observed?
 

Lheurch

(65 posts)
17. One
Tue Jun 25, 2019, 02:27 PM
Jun 2019

The Fermi Paradox could imply the first premise is true. I have already stated I do not believe the first premise is true though so not sure why you would argue with me on it.

Jim__

(15,134 posts)
22. A couple of thoughts.
Wed Jun 26, 2019, 07:03 AM
Jun 2019

Evolution honed our intelligence, senses, and skills to increase the probability that we would survive to the age where we can reproduce and then have a good chance of successfully reproducing. Given that, it would not be surprising if certain aspects of the universe were beyond our comprehension. Our inability to fully comprehend quantum phenomena could well fit into that category and so need no further explanation. I would also question why a post-human civilization, interested enough in studying their ancestors to build a simulated universe to enable that study, then confuse the issue by building a simulation that causes the simulated civilization to encounter significant problems that do not map onto actual problems that their ancestors encountered - i.e. if quantum phenomena don't map onto phenomena in the actual physical world, their simulation is not very accurate. Their simulated reality would be quite distinguishable from physical reality.

Premise 2 states: 2. The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero. This assumes that any post-human civilization interested in running ancestor-simulations both could and would run those simulations using humanoid entities that have full human consciousness. As you acknowledged above, they may not be able to create fully conscious creatures in their simulations; and if they do have that capacity, they may consider it extremely unethical to create such conscious beings and then subject them to an existence that is almost totally delusional. They may well opt to create simulations that contain humanoid entities that behave as if they are conscious without actually being conscious. In that case, it is possible that post-human civilizations are running quite sophisticated ancestor simulations, but these simulations would not be populated by beings like us. Note that at our present level of understanding of consciousness, we could not distinguish such a simulation from the real thing - we only assume other people are conscious, we can't actually know that.

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