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Fri May 29, 2020, 10:01 AM

Association of Stay-at-Home Orders With COVID-19 Hospitalizations in 4 States

The paper from the Journal of the American Medical Association that I'll reference here is this one: Association of Stay-at-Home Orders With COVID-19 Hospitalizations in 4 States (Sen S, Karaca-Mandic P, Georgiou A. Association of Stay-at-Home Orders With COVID-19 Hospitalizations in 4 States. JAMA. Published online May 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.917)

Like all Covid papers in the primary scientific literature, the paper is open sourced; anyone can read it.

The unsurprising result of this formal study is that stay at home orders reduce the need for hospitalization of Covid patients and presumably save lives.

A brief excerpt:

In all 4 states, cumulative hospitalizations up to and including the median effective date of a stay-at-home order closely fit and favored an exponential function over a linear fit (R2 = 0.973 vs 0.695 in Colorado; 0.965 vs 0.865 in Minnesota; 0.98 vs 0.803 in Ohio; 0.994 vs 0.775 in Virginia) (Table). However, after the median effective date, observed hospitalization growth rates deviated from projected exponential growth rates with slower growth in all 4 states. Observed hospitalizations consistently fell outside of the 95% prediction bands of the projected exponential growth curve (Figure).

For example, Minnesota’s residents were mandated to stay at home starting March 28. On April 13, 5 days after the median effective date, the cumulative projected hospitalizations were 988 and the actual hospitalizations were 361. In Virginia, projected hospitalizations 5 days after the median effective date were 2335 and actual hospitalizations were 1048.

The scientists who wrote this paper are based in Minnesota.

It is horrible that at a time like this, our racist government, lead by an ignorant, racist, and spectacularly unintelligent fool, has chosen to make our once peaceful country into a powder keg of violence. (Only one branch of our government, the House of Representatives, racists do not rule, but racists lead our Senate, our courts, and many other places.)

The covid-19 crisis remains, however, real, as do other crises generated and exacerbated by inattention and stupidity.

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