"A Bunch of People Will Die" Going to Mars, Elon Musk Says
26 Apr 2021, 5:06 UTC · by Elena Gorgan
There’s been a lot of talk about how SpaceX will be sending the first manned mission to Mars by 2025, or 2026 at the latest, and how this would pave the way to colonizing the planet. Humanity needs to become a multi-planetary species, CEO Elon Musk believes, but it will come at a cost.
That cost will be the loss of human life, above everything else. Not that this should surprise anyone, but these missions will be high on danger, because of the length of the journey, the harsh and unknown environment, the radiation, and the impact extended isolation will have on the psyche. Death is an ever-present possibility.
Or, as Musk himself says in a recent chat with Peter Diamandis, founder of the X Prize Foundation, “a bunch of people will probably die in the beginning.” The chat took place on April 22, which was Earth Day, and focused mostly on what man needs to do in order to cut down on carbon emissions before it’s too late. Musk took part in it because of his vested interest in the topic, and he discussed the Mars missions only in reference to how rockets have very high carbon footprints.
The space-related bit starts at around the 8.38-minute mark in the video below.
Never the one to beat around the bush, Musk admits right from the start that sending a manned mission to the Red Planet is inherently dangerous. “Going to Mars reads like that advert for Shackleton going to the Antarctic,” he says. “You know it is dangerous. It’s uncomfortable, and it’s a long journey. You might not come back alive, but it is a glorious adventure and it will be an amazing experience... Yeah, honestly, a bunch of people will probably die in the beginning.”
More:
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/a-bunch-of-people-will-die-going-to-mars-elon-musk-says-160013.html
= new reply since forum marked as read
Traveling to the New World wasn't exactly risk free either. People still went. 
Here, hold my beer.
The last courageous expansion of human territory was accomplished by the Pacific Islanders. Putting humans on Mars is not analogous, it's not even comparable to early explorations of Antarctica since we now have the means to explore places remotely with machines that have better sensory equipment than our own natural senses.
I don't think ordinary humans will ever have a significant presence in space beyond low earth orbit. We're just too fragile.
Sure, we can build habitats on the south pole, but that's easy in comparison to Mars. On the south pole there is water, air, human friendly atmospheric pressure. and shielding from the harsher radiations of outer space.
Lower earth orbit is partially shielded from the worst radiation, most of the time, but we're still playing the odds.
Mars has none of that.
If high technology human civilization manages to survive the environmental and social catastrophes it brought upon itself (which isn't a sure bet at this time) then outer space will belong to our intellectual offspring -- beings able to walk around on the surface of Mars naked.
I put my own energy into avoiding the environmental and social catastrophes, and encouraging the development of remote sensing technologies and artificial intelligence.
If hard-core genetic engineering of humans can ever be done in an ethical manner (which doesn't seem likely anytime soon) maybe we can build radiation resistant humans who don't need space suits.
Until then Elon Musk's dreams of Martian colonies are the modern equivalent of Jules Verne fantasy. We did not use giant canons to land the first men on the moon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_the_Earth_to_the_Moon
