Scientists stunned by rare Arctic lightning storms north of Alaska

[Judi Lynn]

July 16, 2021
4:47 PM CDT
Last Updated 6 hours ago

Yereth Rosen

4 minute read

ANCHORAGE, Alaska, July 16 (Reuters) - Meteorologists were stunned this week when three successive thunderstorms swept across the icy Arctic from Siberia to north of Alaska, unleashing lightning bolts in an unusual phenomenon that scientists say will become less rare with global warming.

“Forecasters hadn’t seen anything like that before,” said Ed Plumb, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Fairbanks, speaking about the storms that started on Saturday.

Typically, the air over the Arctic Ocean, especially when the water is covered with ice, lacks the convective heat needed to generate lightning storms.

But as climate change warms the Arctic faster than the rest of the world, that's changing, scientists say.

Episodes of summer lightning within the Arctic Circle have tripled since 2010, a trend directly tied to climate change and increasing loss of sea ice in the far north, scientists reported in a March study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. As sea ice vanishes, more water is able to evaporate, adding moisture to the warming atmosphere.

More:
https://www.reuters.com/world/scientists-stunned-by-rare-arctic-lightning-storms-north-alaska-2021-07-16/?rpc=401&

[BootinUp]

1. Spooky

[-misanthroptimist]

2. In the immortal words of Bender:

"Welp, we're boned."

I'm watching these weird weather events with great interest. The time between these events will give a very broad idea on how much time we have left before this type of civilization becomes extremely difficult to sustain. If the past few weeks is any indication (and I truly hope it's not) then we may be in more trouble than I thought. And it's not like I was real optimistic.

[Javaman]

3. LOL I thought you were going to say...

"stupid meatbags" LOL

I see stories like this and I agree, the weather is getting more and more bizarre.

what truly scares me is some sort of event that is so unpredicted in scale that it will be the point of no return.

(we are kind of at that point now, but something that will completely shock the entire world. aka knock us all back on our collective asses)

[-misanthroptimist]

4. The insurmountable problem will occur

When several major crop-producing regions suffer severe weather in the same growing year. Then food will become scarce. Rich nations will see skyrocketing prices; poor nations will starve. That is when civilization will begin to unravel.

My guess is that that process will begin between 2035 and 2040. By 2050 there is a plausible chance that humanity will live in one of those post-apocalyptic nightmares that are so popular with moviegoers.

[Javaman]

5. very good observation.

I see young adults, teens and little kids and I just shake my head and get so sad at the prospect of their futures.

I look at the heat and wild fires in the west. California grows a huge portion of the produce in this nation. And with this current drought out there that has no foreseeable end...

[SCantiGOP]

6. Read about Mr Malthus

and see if that impacts your reasoning.
I'm not saying we have totally screwed up the environment, but I don't see mass suicide as a course of action when technology and political will can change the equation.

I won't be around by 2050, so there's no way I will know that I was wrong.

[-misanthroptimist]

7. You don't have to wait to know you're wrong about 2050.

You are. And it can be demonstrated in this very thread.

A.1. Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming
above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. (high confidence) (Figure SPM.1) {1.2}

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/

It should be remembered that the IPCC is based on consensus, not majority or super-majority, so it tends to understatement.

It takes a while, roughly 25-30 years, between the time of CO2 emission and the full effects of the warming it causes. So even if we stopped emitting CO2 this very day, the warming would continue until the mid-2040s or early 2050s for the effects of what we've already put out there. (It is only now that we are feeling the full effects of the CO2 we emitted in the 1990s. Of course, subsequent emissions are added to that, too). The rate of warming ( ~0.2C/decade) coupled with the 1C of warming already measured and adding in the lag time, it is simple arithmetic to see that we will top 1.5C around 2050. (It probably will be sooner than that due to feedbacks and the fact that the numbers so far used are best case).

The level of technology needed to be discovered, worked into a usable design, and deployed widely and quickly enough to have a useful effect in time to avert the worst effects is staggering. It is almost certainly impossible, barring some discovery so fundamental that it has a sizeable effect on our understanding of physics generally. That seems highly unlikely. Technology got us here, but it won't get us out at this stage -at least not in time to save hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people.

Mass suicide is the course the oil companies chose for us. They've known for decades that this was coming. They argued. They obfuscated. They lied. And they did all that so they could make a bit more profit for a bit longer. They are mankind's greatest monsters.