Follow the Science: Lab Leak Is Most Likely

[pbmus]

Follow the Science: Lab Leak Is Most Likely
Not a single intermediary mutation can be found despite the search for such a scapegoat.
Regarding Richard Muller and Steven Quay’s op-ed “Science Closes In on Covid’s Origins” (Oct. 6): In SARS-1 the coronavirus underwent a few muta

https://apple.news/AUD4myefvR9elEUvWrkehyg

[WHITT]

1. WSJ Still Peddling The RightWing Propaganda

[Tomconroy]

2. Covid originated in the same city where the Wuhan Institute of Virology is

located. If it's a coincidence, that's some coincidence.

[Irish_Dem]

9. Another coincidence, the lab had been studying the coronavirus for years.

Most police detectives don't believe in coincidence.

[WHITT]

11. Nope

So far, documented in Italy and Spain well before any evidence of cases anywhere in China.

[Tomconroy]

13. Link?

Or not.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain#:~:text=The%20virus%20was%20first%20confirmed,transmission%20began%20by%20mid%2DFebruary.

Place not your faith in Italian scientists:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dispute-over-italian-coronavirus-study-shows-challenges-probing-origins-2021-07-23/

[WHITT]

14. Wrong Cite

AND, from your second cite:

The scientists have now submitted the fresh findings called "Timeline of SARS-CoV-2 spread in Italy: results from an independent serological retesting" to the website bioRxiv, a free online archive of unpublished clinical studies, ahead of peer review. They say these confirm their original conclusion.

[Tomconroy]

17. You need to read the whole article. Your claim does have

the certain charm of looney originality though.

[WHITT]

20. YOU Need To Read The Whole Article

There is no "dispute". There's bupkis contrary evidence, only lack of acknowledgment. They can not acknowledge their findings all they want, it's meaningless without contrary evidence.

[Tomconroy]

22. You won't believe this one either:

https://www.wired.com/story/flawed-covid-19-origin-theory-italy/

[WHITT]

25. More Pooh-Poohing

but no EVIDENCE to the contrary.

There's also Spain (not your cite), which I'll look for this afternoon.

[Tomconroy]

27. Beat you to it.

When you tell us it came out of Fort Derrick you will have hit the Chinese trifecta.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/health/coronavirus-spain.html

[WHITT]

33. Can't Access It

But from the headline, "skeptical" is not EVIDENCE.

[Tomconroy]

36. Clearly you are going to believe what you believe

And I hadn't known before about these theories, so there is that.
But the obvious problem for a claim that Covid originated somewhere other than Wuhan is what didn't happen. No widespread infection, no large amounts of hospitalizations and deaths. In Wuhan they knew they had a problem that wasn't the flu in December 2019 and that the disease was rapidly spreading. Didn't happen in Italy or Spain or North Carolina for that matter. The evidence of reality tells us it was Wuhan.

[WHITT]

40. WRONG

The cases in Italy were prior to a more aggressive mutation. They were asymptomatic, or thought they merely had a cold or a mild flu.

[Tomconroy]

44. Ahh! Secret Covid! Why didn't I think of that!

[WHITT]

45. Eh

How is it a "secret" if it tests as SARS-CoV-2?

[Dr. Shepper]

3. This is a LTE

Not a scientific article. And it cites absolutely no sources.

[SergeStorms]

8. Precisely.

The letter is full of conjecture and proves nothing.

But of course Murdoch's WSJ will do whatever it takes to muddy the waters in support of reich-wing disinformation.

[Ford_Prefect]

4. The biggest problem in determining the source is that Chinese officials have erased the record and

disappeared some of the witnesses. Whether that proves the source is an open question. It is a bad move professionally in Chinese government Admin. to be found to blame for a scandal, or to appear to be.

One theory goes that if it looked like the lab could be blamed or at least investigated that would be very bad for those in charge or those who patronized it. Another theory goes that it was seen as a point of cooperation with western influences by those who believe such only leads to corruption of Chinese ideals.

In either case Chinese scientists who had knowledge of the lab have gone missing especially those with western scientific contacts. Their research notes and personal data have been scrubbed. It is unclear that there were direct connections to the outbreak. On the other hand why would they have been erased if there weren't, unless something else untoward was going on that could have been exposed by a close look at the lab by outsiders who knew what to look for.

It is far to easy for us to speculate on this. However the staff disappearances combined with poor cooperation by Chinese political and health officials makes a conclusion that is not suspicious at least very hard to avoid. Those western scientists familiar with the lab have been defensive of its quality and general performance, although some have questioned the evidence presented by government officials as being incomplete. Most with knowledge of the disappeared staff members and their data say that situation indicates a coverup of some magnitude.

[Tomconroy]

7. In criminal law we call these actions 'conciousness of guilt'.

[Irish_Dem]

10. Tampering with evidence and witnesses points to guilt.

[WHITT]

12. Except There's Nothing To 'Cover Up'

Just because some folks have followed the propaganda down the rabbit hole, and conflated indignation with being falsely accused as non-cooperation, doesn't mean there's any there there. Would the U.S. allow Chinese officials unfettered access to our high-level labs under false pretenses? Of course not.

[Tomconroy]

18. Here's somebody who thinks they're hiding stuff:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/27/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-investigation-into-the-origins-of-covid-%E2%81%A019/

[Ford_Prefect]

19. It is clear that something has been hidden. That is not proof of what happened.

What is not there is a complete record of events of the kind you would expect to see. That is according to immunologists and other scientists familiar with the Wuhan site and with the science practiced there. There is also the question of significant personnel who haven't been seen since shortly after the point when the first cases were noted in Wuhan. These same individuals had their online presence erased and their research records at the Wuhan lab scrubbed. Western scientists with whom they had ongoing professional and personal exchanges have raised this issue.

This isn't a propaganda rabbit hole. It's a blank space where something should be and clearly has been erased. Why that blank exists is reason to question the integrity of those officials who insist that this is all they have to show us.

I don't presume to know what happened in Wuhan regarding COVID's source or release. What I DO say is we haven't got reason to believe the story as it stands now. That is not racist. I have plenty of reason to question the veracity of government officials with a record of presenting only the facts which suit them.

Whether it happened to ensure the future of an anti-western administrator or to cover evidence of activities at the lab which would be embarrassing or worse to the Chinese Government, or whether some genuine if terrible error occurred the world has no way of knowing at present.

[WHITT]

21. Ah

First, "racist"? Who the hell mentioned racist?

Second, if I was accused of a crime committed in New York, and the airlines, hotel, restaurants, and others have documented I was in London, yet I am continuously falsely accused, why would I 'cooperate' with anyone in that regard?

[Ford_Prefect]

23. Your metaphor is disingenuous. The government of China has a long and documented record of avoiding

ugly truths. I do not for one moment ask you to accept the racist ravings of TLG's government in blaming Beijing for presumed bioweapons research.

The questions I raised are not answered by your metaphor, although they are asked around the globe by immunologists and others with serious concerns and a scientific need to identify and calibrate COVID-19's evolution and sourcing.

China has an obligation to be forthcoming and complete as a citizen of the world. As do the United States and others who presently doubt the evidence so far presented.

[WHITT]

24. All Of Which

ignores the EVIDENCE to the contrary.

[Ford_Prefect]

26. Evidence? You can present it? or refer to it? Please enlighten us.

Howling in print is not evidence.

[WHITT]

35. Where Ya Been?

These have been posted in a number of previous threads:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing/researchers-find-coronavirus-was-circulating-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-idUSKBN27W1J2

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science/coronavirus-traces-found-in-march-2019-sewage-sample-spanish-study-shows-idUSKBN23X2HQ

[Ford_Prefect]

38. There is significant doubt attached to the Spanish results suggesting a need for further examination

as reported in the Reuters piece.

The Italian findings look more convincing as to how far and diverse the virus could have spread prior to the Wuhan events.

Neither article presents a means by which the pandemic was ignited nor an explanation of the apparent pattern of spread.

I asked what the Chinese decided to hide and why? They hid it from their own people and the rest of the world, not to mention the conniving rats in the TLG administration.

[WHITT]

41. Sure

Neither article presents a means by which the pandemic was ignited nor an explanation of the apparent pattern of spread.

Neither does the Wuhan propaganda.

I asked what the Chinese decided to hide and why? They hid it from their own people and the rest of the world, not to mention the conniving rats in the TLG administration.

No doubt the local government authorities tried to cover things up, hoping they could contain things, but that was merely out of fear of being punished by the national government.

[Roy Rolling]

5. Is it 3 dimensional chess?

A Wuhan leak is the last thing I want to be the origin, because I’m polarized by Trump minions and wannabes. Polarized to hate seeing them correct on anything because that political camp is a bunch of fucking idiots.

So if I were a Trump handler, what better way to ensure this American discord than to call off the watchdogs at the Wuhan facility? Trump ended close inspection and supervision of that place, why? And then a pandemic started exactly there.

Why did he order the American medical scientists stationed in Wuhan for Covid-watching to shut down the operation? Who thought that was a good plan besides Vlad P.?

[Irish_Dem]

15. Trump also reversed the pause that Obama had ordered on this kind of research.

I wonder why Trump did this.
You think this has Putin's fingerprints on it?

Read the recent New Yorker article about Wuhan and Covid.

[Tomconroy]

6. The New Yorker has a good article about this out this week.

The people on two continents who were involved in this 'gain of function' research are seriously dangerous.

[Irish_Dem]

16. I am reading this article now. Jebus God.

I would like to discuss it when I am finished.

So far, seems like a number of governments will want any inquiry shut down, including the US.

[Irish_Dem]

28. Way too many coincidences. All paths lead back to the Wuhan Lab.

And yes, the Gain of Function research is dangerous and outrageous.

I was trained as a PhD researcher. Research is like detective work; we follow the data. Data tells you the truth, data tells you the story.

Wuhan Lab had the Covid virus and was doing gain of function research, which is engineering the virus to make it more transmissible to humans. This research was in part funded by the US. This research is very high risk, but ostensibly conducted with a goal towards developing effective treatments for virus infection.

Wuhan Lab was known to use sloppy lab practices.

And after the outbreak all evidence was scrubbed and hidden by the Chinese government. A cover up suggests culpability.

No data to support the natural origin theory, that the virus jumped from bats to humans.

So far the data points to the Wuhan Lab. Either the engineered virus infected an employee of the lab, or the lab techs were secretly selling infected animals to the Wuhan live animal market.

The Wuhan Lab and Wet market were essentially crimes scenes, and the Chinese government carefully eradicated all evidence and silenced witnesses. So we may never be able to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt exactly what happened.

But based upon the facts we do have, the data is pointing to the Wuhan Lab. I don't believe it was deliberate, data pointing to an accident.

[Tomconroy]

31. Yes. Just too many coincidences.

[NNadir]

29. Possibly the worst source of science news are journalists.

In the case of scientific news they mostly spread or sustain misinformation. This ranks in another area of journalistic "expertise" with "but her emails."

[Tomconroy]

30. What did the New Yorker article get wrong?

[NNadir]

32. One can answer this question oneself by being aware...

...that almost all the major scientific publishers have made all articles connected with Covid open sourced..

While many articles are highly technical, many are not, in particular the news sections of both Nature and Science cover this topic extensively.

Since I more or less live in the primary scientific literature and am often able to compare media articles in newspapers and what is actually reported by scientists and or journalists who have scientific training and direct access to scientists I'm generally appalled and know whence I speak.

It does not fall into my responsibility to fact check all the crap journalists write however. Google Scholar is free to use, and anyone interested in critical thinking, at least where Covid is concerned, can use it an exploit the publishers willingness to open access.

[Ford_Prefect]

34. Nice fluffy non-answer you've posted. No refence or suggestion of facts or opinion or a class

of information mere mortals could track.

You haven't suggested a line of information or reasoning which supports a point of view alternate to the idea that the Wuhan Lab might have some connection or that another source could exist. I don't read primary immunology research but I do follow political behavior. Whatever happened to initiate the pandemic hasn't been discussed here so far. The idea that the Chinese Government hasn't told the rest of us what it knows has been mentioned. The arguable possibility that COVID began or transferred to humans in Wuhan seems to have some support, although that is not proof.

What I'd like to hear you commit to is another source or process by which COVID got from the wild into our everyday lives with some real world reference points to support your contention.

[NNadir]

37. I stand by what I wrote. If it's too "fluffy" for you, you have the option...

...to do some work. If however you wish to repeat your biases based on a fascination with what you call "political behavior," or unwilling to open a scientific paper I am spectacularly uninterested in engaging in a conversation about Wuhan conspiracy theories.

Right now Google Scholar lists over 19,000 papers on the subject of Covid origins in 2021 alone, a number being sociological papers on peoples fascination with embracing ignorance. It is certainly a paradigm of our times.

Anyway, I have a serious life to live and I don't have time to engage laziness.

[Tomconroy]

39. The problem with many scientific papers is that

they are often so jargon filled and badly written as to be unintelligible to the lay reader.
But I appreciate your sharing your bias against journalism.
PS: Apparently you were too lazy to read the article.

[NNadir]

42. Well if one does the hard work to understand what some people call...

..."jargon," one may expect to be criticized by people uninterested in true understanding.

I have made it a point in my life to read papers I don't initially understand to broaden the scope of my knowledge and insight.

What one can read is a function of what brings to the text.

I will say that people who value writing style over substance are, in my opinion, are a big part of the why we see so many tragedies.

I don't read much media tripe, it's true. When I was a kid I bought into to much of it, and thus rely on original sources. If someone thinks that's "laziness" that's not my problem, it's theirs.

[Tomconroy]

43. You've told us all about 'You' in your contributions to the thread,

but nothing else of significance. I guess that was your point.
You referenced the news sections of Nature and Science. I guess you don't realize that is what we call 'journalism'.