@HillaryClinton now at 82% projected to win #iacaucus

[riversedge]

Nik Roybal ?@nikroybal 17m17 minutes ago

Nik Roybal Retweeted FiveThirtyEight

.@HillaryClinton now at 82% projected to win #iacaucus



FiveThirtyEight Verified account
?@FiveThirtyEight

Our updated Iowa forecast, as of 6:20pm ET: http://53eig.ht/1SNgY0F




According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 82% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

[HerbChestnut]

1. If I had money to spare

I'd take that bet.

[Scootaloo]

2. Fascinating. You know you posted the republican primary stuff, right?

[PowerToThePeople]

3. That's good stuff right there

riversedge (14,037 posts)

@HillaryClinton now at 82% projected to win #iacaucus

Nik Roybal ?@nikroybal 17m17 minutes ago

Nik Roybal Retweeted FiveThirtyEight

.@HillaryClinton now at 82% projected to win #iacaucus



FiveThirtyEight Verified account
?@FiveThirtyEight

Our updated Iowa forecast, as of 6:20pm ET: http://53eig.ht/1SNgY0F




According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 82% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

[Scootaloo]

4. I could have sworn Santorum dropped out. I learned something today!

[MissDeeds]

5. Oops

[JonLeibowitz]

6. Ironically their candidate would fit right in!! LOL! n/t

[riversedge]

9. Thanks for the heads up. I took it out.

[Scootaloo]

13. Sure thing

Though I'm... not exactly sure how you could mix that up. Ah well.

[beam me up scottie]

11. LOL.

[stonecutter357]

7. K&R!

[DisgustipatedinCA]

8. It went from 73% to 82% on the day she's taking body blows for being a liar? Impressive.

Is she on the line marked "TRUMP" or on the line marked "CRUZ"?

[underthematrix]

26. I refer to the "liar" thing as bird shit

lotta birds. gonna be a lotta shit

[cali]

10. The RC rolling poll for 1/2-1/10 has her ahead by .02

Please explain how she has an 82% chance of winning.

[JRLeft]

12. She's leads by a large margin in most states.

[cali]

14. I am unclear why that matters re Iowa

[JRLeft]

16. That's the only thing that makes sense. Those are the odds doesn't mean the odds will

increase or decrease. I don't believe Nate has an agenda. Those are the odds until proven otherwise. I think Bernie has a good chance though.

[ram2008]

20. Nate has a flawed model

So all of its results will also be flawed.

He's basing the probabilities on other things like endorsements, intra party support, fundraising etc.

[JRLeft]

21. It makes sense with that kind of backing.

[Scootaloo]

15. Nate Silver count endorsements in addition to polls.

Also, he acknowledges he "might be totally wrong" at the top of the methodology page.

[riversedge]

19. think Eric Holter. Endorsements matter

[cali]

24. They don't seem to be helping her in Iowa or New Hampshire

Or perhaps the do and without them she'd be doing worse.

[FreakinDJ]

17. Like her poll numbers that number will be going down

[litlbilly]

18. Ill take a 100/1 bet against that. I would clean up huge

[Lancero]

22. A bit misleading your title.

By one calculation it is 82 to 18, but for another it's 66 to 34.

The numbers are even odder for NH - One, 57 to 43 Hillarys favor. The 2nd, 73 to 27 Bernies favor.

Basically, creative math to make it look like she's already got it in the bag.

[Bjornsdotter]

27. Yep

When the 'forecast' is added in, the numbers go wacky.

[2pooped2pop]

23. what's more important is that Sanders has made a 5 point jump

In just the last three days with predictwise and the other political odds sites. That's a pretty big jump and I bet he keeps going up while she slides down.

Game change has begun.

[Warren Stupidity]

25. That would explain the full out panic.

[ucrdem]

28. It will be even clearer after Sunday's debate.

I don't know exactly where Bernie and Martin's bumps are coming from but I imagine the media focus on Iowa is helping. And I don't think anyone inclined to vote for Hillary in the GE is going to give a fig what some ratfink on Bloomberg thinks about Chelsea.