Hillary Clinton’s National Lead Is Slipping Faster In 2016 Than It Did In 2008 - WaPo

[WillyT]

Hillary Clinton’s national lead is slipping faster in 2016 than it did in 2008
Philip Bump - WaPo
January 14 at 1:48 PM

<snip>

In 2008, Hillary Clinton saddled up for the Kentucky Derby on a thoroughbred that was a sure thing. Her campaign was the finest colt in Kentucky, at odds that barely made it worth betting on her. The race began, and she was up by a quarter mile. Then, as another jockey started to gain, she slipped out of her saddle. She was barely hanging on, bumping along against the dirt, bruised and struggling and still hanging in there a half-a-length back. And then she lost and grudgingly wished the victor luck in winning the Triple Crown.

So you have to figure that, when 2016 rolled around and everyone was saying, "No, this horse is a sure thing," she was a bit wary. But she got on. She ran strong. She did well. And now, in the final turn, there might be something wrong with the saddle.

If we compare where Clinton is now in the Real Clear Politics polling average, the 2016 picture and the 2008 picture aren't really all that similar. Nationally, she was doing much better in 2008 than she is right now, perhaps in part because the anti-Clinton vote in 2008 was still split between two people -- Barack Obama and John Edwards -- instead of just one. But that recent trend line, a function of two new national polls that were close after a bit of a lull, is not very good news.



In Iowa, Clinton is running a bit better than she did in 2008 -- though, again, she's dipped significantly recently. It wasn't until...

<snip>

More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/14/hillary-clintons-national-lead-is-slipping-faster-in-2016-than-it-did-in-2008/

[SheilaT]

1. Thanks for posting this.

Ever since last summer, even before Bernie declared, when the Hillary people were announcing with great smugness that she really, really, REALLY was inevitable this time, at least some of us were highly skeptical. And every time we mentioned 2008 we were brushed off, as if she had never actually been touted as inevitable back then, and besides, they'd played nice (PUMAs, anyone?) and now was HER TURN! So get used to it!

I have been heartily annoyed at the Hillary supporters here who have been incredibly rude and condescending, although they seem to have gone somewhat silent in the past couple of days, which is nice.

Makes me almost want to create a new persona here just to hop into the Hillary forum and say what I really feel.

[draa]

6. I'm glad someone else noticed the silence.

I thought it was just me but it seems some of the wind may have left their sails. I'd imagine after Iowa they'll rebound.

That said, new polling can't be helping their enthusiasm. Some may also realize that 2008's loss is becoming a real possibility. And you're correct, over the last 4-6 months the smugness from that group as been terrible. We haven't acted with kindness ourselves but to be told that we don't belong, and we're outsiders in our own party, is enough for me to gloat for awhile just because.

[lewebley3]

64. Hillary is now going back up in the polls faster than before up 21 lowa

[Javaman]

90. are you going to provide evidence?'

or like in another post, are you going to demand for me to show you your own proof?

[lewebley3]

95. Gravis poll: Real Clear politics

[Javaman]

100. link?

or do I have to search for your "evidence"? LOL

[JonLeibowitz]

101. Why cite a shitty gravis poll when the sterling Ann Selzer poll is a day old?

[roguevalley]

10. I love a lot of the Hillary people and that doesn't change. I know what it is to go down with

your candidate's ship. I am however loving this because it feels genuine and real, like RFK and JFK.

[WillyT]

12. + 1,000,000,000 What You Said !!!

[roguevalley]

14. BACK AT YA, WILLYT!

[lewebley3]

18. Sanders will go under examining : People will find out he is hot air

[2pooped2pop]

42. hot air rises

Even if that is a poor description of him.

[lewebley3]

45. Hot air doesn't haves substance: but if you like Sanders is wind back talker

[SammyWinstonJack]

48. Honestly, what does that even mean...

[lewebley3]

60. Sanders is an empty suit

[INdemo]

79. Tell us in your opinion who would you choose to draft Hillary's

Scream speech after loosing Iowa? Would you favor Chelsea,DWS or Bill.

Or would suggest someone from Goldman Sachs,or Citi Corp or Wells Fargo after all they really put the emphasis on her with Millions contributed in PAC money.

What was you saying about an empty suit?


http://www.whiteoutpress.com/articles/2014/q1/hillary-clinton-aligns-with-wall-street-for-2016/

[lewebley3]

104. Patick Leay : The other Senator who knows Sanders is not supporting Him

[Rockyj]

102. If I would have said that about Hillary...

in one of her THREADS my post would have been flagged, hidden and/or kick out of the discussion! I have absolutely no respect for her, nor do I trust her. Hillary thinks she's entitled to be President, well...she can think that all she wants but it doesn't mean she will ever be.

[John Poet]

75. 'Wind Back Talker'

A now obscure film about native Americans....


or not

[2pooped2pop]

49. He has more substance in his little finger

Than all the presidential contenders combined.

[lewebley3]

59. No he has not accomplishements either the private sector or the public

He is just a nice old man, with now Senate Dem supporting him,
he could never get the votes breakup the banks.

[intersectionality]

65. But we can all agree his term won't be....

Making the banks stronger. Good luck to your pro-bank anti-society candidate who I will have to hold my nose to support if she comes away with a win in the primaries.

[madokie]

73. I think we've found the

I'm owed beer and travel money guy. LOL

I'm sure some here know what I'm getting at.
Makes about as much sense, wouldn't you say?

[hedda_foil]

85. lewe, your heart is in the right place but you're really, really bad at this.

You've been working so hard to support your candidate, and that's commendable, but your posts just aren't doing it. Try going over to correct the record and pick up the official talking points of the hour. Even that would be preferable.

[roguevalley]

70. I hope, lewebley3, that we learn about you too. You throw bombs nicely

but there is nothing in them. Have a great day.

[pangaia]

26. Did you have to mention RFK and JFK?

[roguevalley]

69. Yeah. My family knew them and they are large lights in my memory. I

can remember every moment. What is the objection if any?

[pangaia]

71. They were a big influence on me as well.

I went to JFK's funeral.

I'm just glad you didn't mention MLK also.
I was in Memphis when he was assassinated.

Please don't take offense..

[roguevalley]

72. I won't. I think I get your point. No foul. My life is pockmarked with disappointment over

elections with heroes becoming legends without my consent. Bernie is my brightest star so far.

[pangaia]

74. We are togther.

[roguevalley]

82. agreed. its like Optimus Prime says, Until all are one. There. I just outed my hobby :D

[Fast Walker 52]

94. indeed.... those aren't such good references for promising leaders

[Duval]

96. Count me IN!

[lewebley3]

15. No Hillary now going back up in the polls: She went down because of GOP attacks

[floriduck]

21. I admire your reckless abandon.

It really takes balls to come out when you're being shelled by media sources from all sides.

It's nice t too late to Feel the Bern.

[lewebley3]

32. Bern would turn red in front of Trump and faint: Sanders is a weak looking

he is not a leader, and has not accomplished anything:

Trump just has to call Sanders a commie and the race will be
over, the American people will not vote for a socialist, and
commie Sander just another McGovern.

[floriduck]

34. LOL. Thanks for the laugh. nm

[lewebley3]

36. Sanders ran from protesters: Hillary was polite and clam she showed leadership

[Babel_17]

39. Who had the armed guards, lol? nt

[lewebley3]

40. That is right: Hillary is smart enough to look after supporters safety

Hillary was prepared: Sanders was a mess

[Babel_17]

44. So Clinton was rootin' tootin' ready, while Sanders is too gun shy? Ok then

I guess a few think armed guards are needed to protect crowds from a handful of BLM protesters. Sanders doesn't, imo, and I think the vast majority of Clinton supporters, and Sanders supporters, don't think that either.

Let's agree to disagree. The last word is yours ...

[lewebley3]

47. Obama is right Hillary is a gun supporter: She for reasonable gun control:

Given the GOP votes in the state for open carry in the last
8 years: Hillary is calling for gun owners as wells nongun
owners to standup against the NRA

[2pooped2pop]

46. then you have not actually paid attention

to Bernie. He is the only one that actually tells the truth and it takes a hell of a lot of nerve to be able to speak truth to the money.

He will take care of trump with more dignity than tRump deserves and a lot kinder than most of us could.

[lewebley3]

57. Sanders does nt' tell the truth: He cannot breakup banks: he has never

been able to get votes for any of his bills even by De m's

Trump will point to all things he's done: and Sanders will have nothing
to say for himself except he sat in the Senate doing nothing.

He will say Sanders is commie like McGovern, and that Sanders
honeymooned in Russia: Sanders loves Russia and European more
than the American way of life.

Sanders will lose 49 state:

[SammyWinstonJack]

51. Socialist, commie.....which is it...?

[lewebley3]

56. Only Sanders knows

[DisgustipatedinCA]

23. Thank God the GOP won't be attacking her anymore.

[lewebley3]

24. Hillary is leading in Iowa by 21 points again: Gravis poll

[merrily]

28. LOL!

[lewebley3]

29. I don't thnk the race has changed: the Media is playing games for money

[merrily]

31. LOL!

[DisgustipatedinCA]

50. No, it's true. Hillary's ahead of Bernie 94% to 73%...a 21-point difference with all 167% counted.

[merrily]

54. Gravis has no gravitas.

[Plucketeer]

37. Pass some of that stuff this way, eh?

[lewebley3]

38. Read Real Clear poltics:

[CoffeeCat]

61. Is this the poll

where 65 percent of those polled were over the age of 50; and no one under the age of 26 was polled; and 60 percent of those polled were women? LOL!

Seriously, that was the methodology of two polls that were out last month that showed Clinton with a wide lead in Iowa.

Seriously.

[CoffeeCat]

58. LOL! She didn't go down in Iowa because of "GOP attacks."

She went down in Iowa for two reasons: 1.) Her inevitability meme has been obliterated by Bernie, who is demonstrating that she is not inevitable; 2.) Iowans are moving out of the Hillary column and no longer support her.

Clinton is down 7 points in Iowa in one month.

There haven't been ANY Republican attacks that have had ANY effect on Iowans. Her slide is completely due to Iowans realizing that she's not the only game in town.

The media attention in Iowa for Bernie has really ramped up. This is, in part, why her inevitability has crumbled. Bernie's media coverage is only going to increase during the last 2 weeks of the caucus season, before Iowans pick their candidate.

That's what happens when you run on inevitability and you count on a total blackout of your opponent to carry you through the race.

A seven point drop in one month is huge. It's highly unlikely that it will stop. The campaign is in a free fall.

[John Poet]

76. You must be reading polls from three months ago.

I don't see any like that out there now.

If you do, then give us LINKS !!!

"Put up, or shut up" so to speak.

[totodeinhere]

86. You make a good point. GOP attacks are hurting Hillary. And it will get even worse during the

general.

You just made a good case for Bernie. The GOP cannot touch a man of such honesty and integrity. But Hillary is a big target for them. This is one reason why we need to nominate Bernie.

[Dustlawyer]

91. Maybe some of the most strident HRC supporters that have gone silent were being paid

and the campaign decided they were antagonizing everyone and being counter-productive? We had one confess to being a paid shill for HRC, why not others?

[LondonReign2]

92. Sorry, i have away for a while -- who confessed?

n/t

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. I thought she would peak at the end of December

[winter is coming]

3. "the final turn?" We haven't even gotten to the backstretch.

OTOH, it explains all the crazy attacks as of late. Clearly, she's had some internal polls telling her the campaign was falling straight off a cliff.

[CharlotteVale]

4. K&R

[rhett o rick]

5. Watch out Clintons and the American Aristocracy, the People's Movement is gaining

momentum. People are standing up to the corruption of Citizens United bought politicians.

[Warren DeMontague]

7. That sure explains some of the frantic, angsty posting we see here in GD-P

[retrowire]

8. BERN BABY BERN

[img][/img]

[Ed Suspicious]

11. If that doesn't make you smile you're dead inside.

[SmittynMo]

9. Oh so bad.

[MrChuck]

13. I want to say this.

I was "Ready For Hillary" just like a lot of people were. My main concern was that we didn't slip backward from the place we got to in electing and re-electing President Obama. I was also very psyched that we would be following the first ever African-American POTUS with the first Woman POTUS. It was a high time ideologically.

When I first got wind of Senator Sanders candidacy I dismissed him as an old radical, a throwback to the hippies that had given up long ago and as someone who was desperately seeking an end-of-career shot at relevance. Boy, was I wrong about him.

I couldn't stop looking into Sanders, initially as research to debunk him and support Sec'y Clinton. The more I looked the more I remembered about two very important realities. 1. Clinton is an opportunist who will say anything to get elected. 2.This nation was founded by people with the kind of fire in their bellies that Senator Sanders possesses.

I'm proud to support Bernie Sanders and to discuss his policy with skeptics. I am very happy to see his campaign taking the lead and gaining attention. It's not over til it's over but anyone who thought this was going to be an early knockout was dead wrong.

Bern baby, Bern!

[in_cog_ni_to]

19. Great post and welcome to DU!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[ljm2002]

20. Nice!

And Welcome to DU!

[SammyWinstonJack]

53. +1000000

[senz]

66. Very well said, MrChuck.

Good to have your intelligent voice on DU!

[thereismore]

16. One word: pretty brutal. OK two. nt

[Go Vols]

17. Heard this on MSNBC a while ago.

[Still In Wisconsin]

22. America is sure "ready for Hillary"

Ready for her to just go away already, that is.

[SammyWinstonJack]

55. ready for that.

[hifiguy]

25. I wonder what the excuse will be this time?

Dropping like a stone in every poll.

[Purveyor]

27. I said that as soon as she "had to" go in front of the cameras

this would be the result.

[senz]

67. So now we understand why DWS tried to hide the Democratic debates.

[winter is coming]

30. Hillary is losing her shit. Can't wait to see what comes next.

[CoffeeCat]

63. LOL!! (nt)

[progressoid]

33. Ouch.

[Enthusiast]

41. Consumers of health care services in the USA know there is a fundametal problem.

Half measures won't be enough this time.

Hillary made a huge mistake by mischaracterizing Medicare for All.

[Z_California]

43. Yeah but...

..."Bernie is NOT Barack Obama"

[Jarqui]

62. from the looks of that chart ...

... he's better!!

(not serious - I'm very fond of both of them)

I'm just a little giddy with the Berns from the apparent implosion

[Maedhros]

52. This popped into my head...

[WillyT]

68. Yep...

[WillyT]

77. Late Night Kick...

[peace13]

78. If she has to lose do it early.

The last time she lost she went MIA for three weeks holding the party hostage. I wish her well and post this as an observation of what happened.

[HubertHeaver]

98. She needs an exit strategy.

At what point will she realize this is another blown opportunity and gracefully bow out?

[peace13]

103. I agree.

I will try to focus energy on a graceful exit in my heart but the thinking part of my brain tells me that ego and privilege will stand in the way. I am thankful that we had President Obama for two terms after *. It gave me a chance to regroup and restore.

[Uncle Joe]

80. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, WillyT.

[WillyT]

83. HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You Uncle Joe !!!

[Uncle Joe]

84. Keep up the good fight, WillyT.

[morningfog]

81. Beautiful.

[delrem]

87. She hasn't "plateaued" yet! n/t

[jfern]

88. RCP average is 11 points closer today than on the day of the Iowa caucuses in 2008

[Betty Karlson]

89. Wow! Talk about tanking... n/t

[humbled_opinion]

93. I want our eventual nominee to win....

That said, after the latest repub debate it appears that the Trump will be their choice. Hillary has so much baggage and trump is not afraid to toss it all in the street. I have to say at this point the only thing that could help Hillary would be for a complete exoneration by the FBI on her emails, and the foundation. The sooner the better, but I personally think she won't be able to weather an indictment and it will be just a complete embarrassment for our party.

[Duval]

97. K&R.

[Dont call me Shirley]

99. K & R