Will O’Malley Backers Deliver Iowa to Bernie Sanders?

[book_worm]

The former Maryland governor’s support in Iowa is the only reason he’s appearing in Sunday’s Democratic debate. After days of uncertainty as to whether or not he’d qualify, NBC News announced Thursday that he’d make the stage. But while that’s good for O’Malley, who’s struggled to gain the public’s attention since his campaign launched in late May, it doesn’t mean he’s a competitive candidate. What he could be, though, is influential. When O’Malley’s backers show up to caucus on February 1, they could tip the race: not to O’Malley, but to their second choice.

It all comes down to the math. When voters arrive at each of the roughly 1,700 caucus meetings, they sort themselves into groups backing different candidates. Candidates need the support of 15 percent of those assembled. At any precinct where they fail to clear that hurdle, they’ll be given the option to back one of O’Malley’s rivals. (They can also simply go home, or try to convince Clinton and Sanders supporters to join their camp, instead.)

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/omalley-iowa-caucus-sanders/424224/

[elleng]

1. Both surveys indicate that voters are feeling flexible.

(Forty percent of those surveyed in Thursday’s poll said they could be “persuaded” to join another camp; Tuesday’s poll had that figure at 20 percent.) But still: It’s a near-impossibility that O’Malley would ever make enough gains to be viable come caucus time.

That leaves O’Malley’s supporters with a potentially game-changing choice, if the race remains this tight. If, after the first ballot, they break decisively toward either Sanders or Clinton, they could deliver the crucial first state.

It’s not entirely clear who their second choice would actually be, though. Recent analysis from liberal Public Policy Polling suggests it’d be Sanders. “In Iowa we find his supporters would prefer Sanders over Clinton 43/20,” their findings read. It’s an intriguing finding, even if the sample size is small. But for a candidate who’s complained of power imbalances in the Democratic primary, O’Malley could find himself in a very powerful position indeed.'

[Hiraeth]

2. thanks for that informative post, elleng

[elleng]

4. You're welcome, Hiraeth.

Took it from the body of the article, as I think such info is valuable.

[Hiraeth]

8. indeed and saved me the trouble

[stone space]

3. Unlikely to go home, but if the O'Malley's corner of the room is close to 15%...

...but not quite there the first time around, it would be reasonable for his supporters to make the argument that sending a delegate for O'Malley from the precinct could impact whether or not his voice in the debate on certain issues such as immigration and guns gets squelched or not in future primary and caucus contests later this season.

They might very well find folks in other corners of the room who would like to send their own candidate a message.

But if O'Malley's corner isn't close to 15%, they'll likely disperse among the corners that meet the 15% threshold. O'Malley himself could have a big impact on how that redistribution occurs, should he want to.

[GoneFishin]

5. Interesting.

[rurallib]

6. I am just not seeing many O'Malley supporters out here folks.

Maybe we'll be surprised on caucus night.

[stillwaiting]

7. O'Malley is campaigning as a strong LEFTIE. He's MUCH closer to Bernie than Hillary.

If his supporters choose Hillary after supporting O'Malley's campaign I would be gobsmacked.

[elleng]

9. I agree,

but I've been wrong before!

[Jim Lane]

10. For that reason we might see strategic defections from Clinton to O'Malley.

Scenario: O'Malley is stuck at 10%. His supporters are about to give up and go to one of the two leaders. The Clinton precinct captain knows that O'Malley is a leftie, and also knows some of the O'Malley people personally and knows they'll prefer Sanders over Clinton.

If I were a Clinton strategist, I'd have a contingency plan. The precinct captain looks at the Clinton crowd and says, "You, you, you, and you -- go over to O'Malley to bring him to 15%." Better for Clinton to lose 5% than for Sanders to gain 10%, would be the reasoning.

[restorefreedom]

12. sadly, i could see them doing that

but ultimately, slimy clintonian tactics will not work, not this time

[Betty Karlson]

11. Excellent posting - thanks for that. eom

[restorefreedom]

13. this is one of the things i dislike about caucuses

you can't just walk in and pull the lever for your candidate. first there are the presentations, arguments, etc and then if the threshold is not met, having to vote second choice or go home.

they will not know the satisfsction of pulling the lever for YOUR guy (or gal) no matter what their standing in the polls. that seems unfair to voters and the candidates. if they are on the ballot, people should get to vote for them.