All this discussion of Hillary Clinton's lead evaporating/melting/disappearing etc.

[cosmicone]

is just a morale life-support for people who deep down inside know that the handwriting is on the wall and Bernie will lose.

let's be stoic and dispassionate here.

1. Iowa and New Hampshire are small states with only a handful of delegates.
2. Iowa is a caucus state so polls have less relevance.
3. The leads are very narrow and that is expected as the race tightens and distills to a two-way race.
4. Even if Sanders wins BOTH IA and NH, those will be very narrow victories and delegate advantage will be +/-5 delegates since delegates are assigned based upon proportion of votes.
5. Unless Sanders wins by a 10%+ margin, his victory will not have any major impact as a "movement" -- major movements win decisively -- not by squeaking by. Thus the eking out of a tiny victory will make media focus on Sanders' negatives and finally vet him. None of that can be very good for the Sanders campaign.

So ... one can use all the bouncies one wants but ..... the handwriting is still on the wall of a Hillary Clinton win.

[randome]

1. The handwriting IS on the wall. Numbers always win out, and the numbers are with Clinton.

One doesn't need to be a supporter or to even like her much to acknowledge reality.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]"If you're bored then you're boring." -Harvey Danger[/center][/font][hr]

[Dretownblues]

2. She is still the favorite

But if Bernie wins both IA and NH this becomes a completely different race. SC is starting to tighten as well, so while she remains the favorite it is far from a sure thing for her.

[DesertRat]

3. Very true

The numbers don't lie
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/

[mikehiggins]

4. Bernie has enough money and enough support to keep this going to the last minute.

The media's decision to not take this campaign seriously EVEN IF we lose Iowa and New Hampshire etc., et al, is meaningless. This campaign got this far with entire weeks going by during with the Inevitable One was presented as the nominee, and that other guy didn't even exist.

Can you even recall WHERE this campaign was when it started?

And as to the "vetting" of Sanders and how much of a threat would it be? Its irrelevant. Sanders is a touchstone, not a god or superhero. He just goes around saying things are crazy right now and here are the reasons for that.

And people are listening. Even without a bunch of pompous talking heads telling them what to think.

How disingenuous to claim the handwriting is on the wall for HRC. It was ALWAYS supposed to be that way, from the first day of her campaign when it was clear EVERYBODY loved HRC and everyone connected to Wall Street was prepared to put her in the White House.

That was then, this is now.

[winter is coming]

6. I'm entertained by the "just wait until he's vetted" arguments.

Does anyone seriously believe the Clinton campaign hasn't been digging for anything it can find to use against Bernie? Or am I supposed to believe there's something too slimy for them to stoop to?

[JonLeibowitz]

35. I was told yesterday there is something too vile to post on DU that they have in waiting.

I called bullshit, which of course I am sure it was. HRH is in desperation mode, it would have come out by now.

[AgingAmerican]

27. Vetting? lol

[winter is coming]

5. "Sanders won't break 20 percent..."

"Sanders won't break 25 percent..."

"Sanders won't break 30 percent...:

"If Sanders can't win Iowa/NH by 10 percent..."

The bar keeps getting lifted higher... and so far Sanders keeps meeting it. Maybe you should lower your expectations for Sanders and see if that helps.

[madville]

7. I think the FBI investigation is the true wildcard

If indictments come down and Hillary has to step aside after the convention the party will pretty much have to nominate Bernie or Biden.

[cosmicone]

9. Not happening

FBI is not investigating Hillary. They said so.

[Lil Missy]

26. Fox Snooze is the only one investigating Hillary.

She's not being investigated by the FBI. That is made up bullshit.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. "5. Unless Sanders wins by a 10%+ margin, his victory will not have any major impact as a "movement"

-- major movements win decisively -- not by squeaking by.

REALLY? Obama sits in the WHITE HOUSE, not HRH.
HRH lost Iowa in 2008. She didn't even come in second and she came in THIRD!

Iowa:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html

Hillary barely won NH in 2008.

NH:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NH.html

Bernie is going to win both Iowa and NH in landslide wins.

Now winning both Iowa and NH means nothing when in all previous elections it has been said to propel the candidate to victory. But if Bernie wins both Iowa and NH, it means nothing.

Talk about moving goalposts!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[cosmicone]

11. For the umpteenth time

Bernie is not Barack Obama ... the ONLY similarity between them is that they are/were both running against HRC.

There won't be landslide wins for Bernie. IF he wins (and the odds are against that), he will win by 2-3% at most. Hardly a "revolution"

[BlueMTexpat]

14. There are some that just do not

"get" that in any respect whatsoever.

[in_cog_ni_to]

20. LOL! My, my my - do you have a rude awakening coming!

I can't wait.


PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Lil Missy]

28. "Never try to teach a pig to sing. it doesn't work and it annoys the pig."

[Rosa Luxemburg]

10. She's already peaked

[Stuckinthebush]

12. Reality is a hard pill to swallow

Look at the data. Clinton rolls every state in March. By April it is all over.

Sanders will stay in to push his very important message and play for a VP nod, but I'm certain his team knows it is a snowballs chance in hell beating Clinton. She has the superdelagates and the state numbers for this to be nowhere close.

But, as is the nature of sports and politics, we see our team as winners. DU sound and fury signifies little.

I bet most DUers are like me and can't wait for the summer so we can stop seeing the divisive crap on GD-P.

[cosmicone]

13. yes, but like I said in the OP

the polls tightening does provide emergency life support for a fading morale.

[Stuckinthebush]

15. Of course

But it is false hope that reigns supreme among Sanders faithful. I can't blame them. I've been there in the past. Hope beats despair!

[uponit7771]

16. The polls aren't tightening that much outside of IA and NH, I'm still waiting on SC... if SBS

... shows up there we'll have a true race ... if not then its proof his appeal was narrow

[MineralMan]

17. There's a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on

in this primary season. It's probably best if ignored. IA and NH are small potatoes in the primary election period. Delegate counts are the only things that matter, really.

[cali]

18. Sure they're small potatoes, but anyone who doesn't grasp

how damaging it would be for her to lose Iowa and NH, truly doesn't understand politics

[MineralMan]

19. Let's wait and see what happens, shall we?

That's my plan.

[Stuckinthebush]

24. It actually won't be that damaging

NH was always thought to be a Sanders win and Iowa will be close if not a Clinton win.

The March races are in strong Clinton territory that won't be too swayed by an Iowa loss. Super Tuesday is going to be a Clinton rout which will suck a lot of air from the Sanders campaign.

Sanders will be done by the end of March.

I'm not in either camp so really don't care either way. But, the reality is that Clinton will win the nomination.

[cali]

33. I think you underestimate the negative MSM tidal wave that would be unleashed

And he won't be done by the end of March. I guarantee you. He's my Senator. I know how the guy rolls.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

22. That's right...pick up your goalposts and take them downfield. Doesn't matter.

Remember when you were a Sanders supporter?

[Sheepshank]

30. Seems to me that some smart people know when they need a course change

Because the original course truly isn't sympatico with their political desires.

You try to paint this as a negative and that isn't quite right. I feel sorry for those that are so vested, digging in their heels merely because they can't admit a mistake.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

32. Sure, I'm in the mood to admit a mistake. Tell me what the hell you're talking about, and I might.

MM was attempting to lessen the importance of the early states IA and NH. I told him he was moving the goalposts. And now you're here with this statement that's incoherent to me. What course change do I need to make? Which mistake do I need to admit? What the hell does that have to do with anything I've said?

[SheilaT]

21. It's true that Iowa and New Hampshire are small states,

and the number of delegates involved is quite small.

BUT. They are the first in the nation, and they get a disproportionate amount of coverage. Keep in mind that in 1968 Eugen McCarthy came in second in NH, and it was enough to make President Johnson decide not to run for re-election.

Since January 20, 2009, Hillary Clinton has been the presumed nominee for 2016 (the Inevitable One), assumed to coast to the nomination, and hardly anyone challenged that notion. Oddly enough, by the middle of 2015 at least some people weren't the least bit happy about her anointment, and when Bernie Sanders stepped up, all the conventional thinkers just laughed.

Well, now it's mid-January, 2016, and Bernie is looking to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. And now, as someone else noted above, all that happens is the bar gets moved. And moved again.

Looking forward, his numbers are rising in SC, also, and nationwide? Even though we don't have a national primary, it's clear he would beat any Republican far more handily than would Hillary. In fact, I seem to recall that some polls show her losing to the Donald in a general election.

It's also not quite understood by a lot of people here that we do not have winner take all primaries and caucuses. We apportion the delegates according to what percentage of the vote each candidate gets. It's definitely going to be a while before our nominee is definitively known.

The handwriting IS on the wall: Hillary Clinton is not assured the nomination. And if she is nominated, her election in November is far, far from assured.

[Stuckinthebush]

25. SC will not go Sanders

The Dems in SC are middle of the road Dems and African American dems. Both groups favor Clinton and will continue to do so. There is always hope in the Sanders campaign but it is not realistic hope.

Southern states are Clinton states. While it is true that we are taking proportional delegates, Clinton will have many mire wins and, therefore, many mire delegates. This plus the large number of superdelagates makes it nearly impossible to beat her. Yes, her win is virtually inevitable.

[SheilaT]

34. It probably will not go completely Sanders.

But the odds are he will pick up delegates. Remember, we are not a winner-take-all party in terms of our caucuses and primaries.

Fewer than half of the super delegates have declared for anyone, and some of them are beginning to endorse Sanders. Super delegates are not bound by an endorsement. They can, and do change their minds.

Hillary is a very, very long way from locking in the nomination.

And keep in mind, she was inevitable in 2008. Remind me again why she is not in the waning months of her second term?

Someone recently posted a link showing that she is dropping even faster in Iowa than she was at this point in 2008. And her unfavorables are through the roof. Inevitable? Hardly.

[Motown_Johnny]

23. Sanders needs a 10% margin? You are clearly kidding yourself.

IF Hillary loses the first two states the race is on.

[Stuckinthebush]

31. Clinton has built a firewall in Super Tuesday states

Even if Sanders wins Iowa this will have minimal effect on SC. That state is all Clinton. Last polling show around +40. Even if Sanders picks up 15 points (statistically difficult), he will still lose there.

However, her slam dunk will be Texas, Va, and Colorado. All of these states are delegate rich and heavily favored for Clinton. She had an early ground game and will maintain her lead in the three plus all Super Tuesday states.

Iowa and NH get a lot of noise but will be meaningless in the long run.

The math ain't with Sanders.

[AgingAmerican]

29. The clinton campaign is in full panic mode

Fun times!

[Gothmog]

36. Even if Sanders win in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee

Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, it is unlikely that he will be the nominee http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Iowa and New Hampshire do not represent the demographics of the Democratic Party and so will not help sanders

I would not put too much faith in the results of Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah or Vermont

[Gothmog]

37. What Happens If Bernie Wins Iowa and New Hampshire?

Here is another good analysis that agrees with Nate Silver http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/11/bernie_sanders_could_win_iowa_and_new_hampshire.html

What would not change, though, is that Clinton would remain the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that won’t soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldn’t change that.

She’d also have a chance to get back on her feet—and fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but it’ll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.

None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesn’t. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, it’s Sanders. Hillary can—and likely would—survive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.

Sanders is doing well in states with 90+% white voting populations and these states are not sufficient for Sanders to win the nomination. There are four states where Sanders is polling well in: Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. Texas has almost twice the number of delegates of these four states combined

[Ron Green]

38. You're right that she's still the presumptive nominee,

albeit in a contest now, but the important thing is that we may not want a nominee or a president with the severe character deficits Ms. Clinton has exhibited recently. In my view the right thing to do is still to support Bernie Sanders, not only for his correct reading of the nature of many of our problems, but for his non-vindictive character.

[cosmicone]

39. "Severe character deficits"

after her valuable data is stolen outright and the people who stole it lied about it?

After the opponent who had promised to not run a negative campaign went negative with an attack ad?

Ms. Clinton has overcome far more obstacles and attacks by her detractors. In 11 hours of testimony, she defeated a whole contingent of evil republicans.

I don't know if Bernie could handle it if the whole Burlington college loan business is subjected to an 11 hour interrogation.

[Ron Green]

40. I can't buy what you're selling.

Sanders has some faults but any lack of character is not one of them.

The Clinton machine, on the other hand, is well known for its efficiency and relentless ambition. Hillary doesn't have Bill's natural smoothness, so she's fallen already into false info with attacks on her opponent, one who really has not posed a serious threat to her numbers.

What this country needs is the style AND substance of Bernie Sanders, not the ambition and concern of Clinton.

[Betty Karlson]

41. There is writing on the wall all right: you just read it upside-down. eom

[coyote]

42. Meh.