Early Presidential Electoral Vote Prediction

[gopiscrap]

Just for shits and giggles I sat down and looked at a map today and this iswhat I came up with
please disagree with and add your own predictions:

HI 4, WA 12, OR 7, CA 55, NM 5, CO 9, NV 6 98 for Obama
MN 10, IA 6, WI 10, MI 16, IL 20 61 for Obama total 159
ME 4, NH 4, VT 3, MA 11, CT 7, RI 4, NY 29 62 for Obama total 221
PA 19, NJ 13, DC 3, MD 10, DE 3, VA 13 61 for Obama total 282


AK 3, ID 4, MT 4, WY 3, UT 6 20 for the GOP
ND 3, SD 3, NE 5, KS 6, OK 7 TX 36 60 Total for the GOP 80
MO 11, AR 6, LA 9, KY 9, TN 11 46 Total for the GOP 126
MS 7, AL 9, GA 15, SC 9, NC 15 WV 5 60 Total for the GOP 186

Toss Ups:

Arizona 11
Florida 27
Ohio 19

Total 57

My guess is that Obama will win with 282-339 electoral votes

[unblock]

1. i assume "MY" is meant to be maryland, usually "MD"?

not an unreasonable prediction, though early times....

in any event, i think obama will comfortably win, though not necessarily by a huge electoral margin.

no single-state diebold nail-biter, but no landslide either.

[Muskypundit]

2. I call florida and ohio for Obama

I just don't buy that all of a sudden there is that many more Hispanics voting in Arizona now to change it.

[demosincebirth]

5. Ohio for sure. You know what they say about Ohio.

[Muskypundit]

7. Not off the top of my head no

Do tell

[demosincebirth]

9. It's the Bellweather state in presidential elections

[gopiscrap]

3. Sorry I meant MD

I think Arizona is winnable because of al the totally pissed off Hispanics, but also many others even some moderates who are appalled at the craziness down there.

I would say Ohio is more likely a win than Fl because I don't trust Rick Scott and FL has that huge history of fucking around with elections.

[AlinPA]

4. IMO, PA is a toss-up at best. This stupid state just elected a teabagger senator and governor

in the last election. The GOP totally controls the state.

[Redstate Bluegirl]

6. NV, NC & Indiana

Red again. I agree with everything else.

[racaulk]

8. A couple of things you're missing...

Last edited Thu Feb 9, 2012, 12:24 AM - Edit history (1)

282+186+57=525. You're missing 13 electoral votes as follows:

--Indiana is missing in your analysis entirely -- 11 electoral votes
--Texas will have 38 electoral votes in this election, not 36

I largely agree with your analysis. I think Obama will hold everything he won in 2008 except for North Carolina, Indiana, NE-2, and possibly Nevada.

[gopiscrap]

12. Damn: I thought I forgot a state

I do think IN will go R plus I thought TX had 36 I stand corrected...thanks...the result is that I do feel Obama will be re-elected

[center rising]

10. Obama can get as much as 310, but more like between 280-295

[musicblind]

11. PPP has NC going for Obama or tied in all 16 polls but one since november and

with the sentiment in this state, from what I've seen... I think Obama is going to take NC.

Plus, having the convention here is going to help a lot.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

PPP has been very accurate, especially in predicting North Carolina, as they are headquartered in Raleigh, NC.