Sanders Takes 5-Point Lead In latest Iowa Poll - Salon

[WillyT]

Sanders takes 5-point lead in latest Iowa poll; big gender gap remains among Hillary and Bernie backers
Male voters flocking to Bernie, while he struggles for support from women in the state
Antoaneta Roussi - Salon
Wednesday, Jan 27, 2016 09:25 AM PST

<snip>

The Iowa caucus days away, Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to surge, taking a 5-point lead in the state over Hillary Clinton according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday morning.

The poll, which was conducted before this week’s Democratic forum and has a margin of error of +/-4 points, shows Sanders leading 49 to 45, with former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley registering just 4 percent.

Sanders’ support in Iowa has predominantly come from very liberal, young voters, and men.

Currently, the gender gap stands at male voters backing Sanders 63 to 32 percent, while female voters support Clinton 54 to 40 percent in Iowa.

So what would it mean if Sanders could capture the female vote?

Since 2000, it’s been noted that women consistently outnumber men among Iowa’s registered voters by a fair margin of 110,000 according to the University of Iowa’s Institutional Repository. Furthermore, female Democrats also tend to have a higher percentage turnout than their male counterparts in presidential elections.

In 2008, Obama managed to win 37.6% of the Iowa caucus, with Clinton receiving 29.5%. He also captured 57% of 17-29 year old voters, a striking similarity with Sanders who has a 19-point lead over the former Secratary of State, with women ages 18 to 34, according to a USA Today/Rock the Vote poll. Sanders also scores 50% compared to Clinton’s 31% among millennial women nationwide.

“Is this deja vu all over again? Who would have thunk it when the campaign began? Secretary Hillary Clinton struggling to keep up with Sen. Bernie Sanders in the final week before the Iowa caucus,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement. “It must make her think of eight years ago when her failure in Iowa cost her the presidency.”

<snip>

More: http://www.salon.com/2016/01/27/sanders_takes_5_point_lead_in_latest_iowa_poll_big_gender_gap_remains_among_hillary_and_bernie_backers/

[lasttrip]

1. should be 4%

https://berniesanders.com/press-release/sanders-maintains-lead-in-iowa-new-quinnipiac-survey-finds/

Press Release
Sanders Maintains Lead in Iowa, New Quinnipiac Survey Finds
January 27, 2016

Twitter Facebook Email Link

WASHINGTON – With just days left to go before the first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses, a new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Sen. Bernie Sanders maintaining a four-point lead over Secretary Hillary Clinton in Iowa.

Sanders’ lead is built on support from younger voters in the state. Likely caucusgoers surveyed between the ages of 18 and 44 favor Sanders over Clinton 78 percent to 21 percent.

Iowans surveyed listed the economy as their highest priority, followed by health care and climate change — all topics Sanders has worked to inject into the 2016 presidential primary. Likely caucusgoers who say the economy is the most important issue for them favor Sanders 53 percent to 41 percent.

Sanders is spending the morning in Washington meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House. He returns to Iowa tonight for a rally in Mason City.

[Jarqui]

2. With the demographics they used, you might argue more than 5%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1076206

[lasttrip]

3. no argument from me

just referring to press release.
Peace.
LT

[FloridaBlues]

4. Take these polls with a grain of salt Iowa poll today HRC up by 4

Quinipac poll was dead wrong last cycle
I would think everyon's eye balls are getting bleary with the polls zig zagging every day

[lasttrip]

6. agreed, always do

that's why they play the game.
Peace.
LT

[CoffeeCat]

7. Quinnipiac actually uses very sound methodology

The only two polls I have relied upon this cycle are first and foremost--Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll, and when there aren't any Selzer Polls, Quinnipiac is a good second choice.

Quinnipiac uses Iowa voter rolls. The first question they ask is, "Do you intend to participate in your Iowa caucuses." Selzer was able to predict Obama's 2008 win--and scores of other races--using this method.

Quinnipiac has followed suit and does the same.

BTW--Selzer's Iowa Poll comes out this Saturday. If you want to know how your candidate is doing and how the race is shaping up, that's the poll to watch. Nate Silver gave Selzer an A+ rating. He's only given that rating to two other pollsters.

[WillyT]

8. Great Info... Thank You !!!

[lasttrip]

12. thanks for the info

much appreciated!
Peace.
LT

[HubertHeaver]

14. It is like watching a bad ping-pong game.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

5. K & R

[TIME TO PANIC]

9. K & R !

[Duval]

10. WillyT, it just gets better!! K&R

[blackspade]

11. Ouch.

I hope this trend continues!

[spinbaby]

13. The caucus process favors Bernie

Remember that caucus goers must go out on a cold Iowa night and spend at least a couple of hours standing around someplace like a high-school gym trying to convince each other of their candidate's virtues. This is a format that favors the young and the enthusiastic, so Bernie is likely to do much better than polls would suggest.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

15. "...her failure in Iowa cost her the presidency."

Wrong. It was a negative campaign against a positive campaign.

But by all means, spend millions on another attack ad.

[WillyT]

16. Kick !!!