GALLUP-Obama 50%, Romney 44%

[jenmito]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

And Obama's approval/disapproval-51%/43%!

They finally got with the rest of the polls!

[TheMastersNemesis]

1. That Means That 44% Of The Country Is Still Stupid

[GodlessBiker]

2. It's sad, isn't it?

[RedSpartan]

3. I believe it was George Carlin who said...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

25. Republicans would vote for a post with a Republican label on it

[RedSpartan]

4. Aaaaaad...

boom goes the dynamite!

[liberallibral]

5. Problem is... Rasmussen was the closest back in 2008...

President Obama won 53%-46%, and their final poll showed he would win, 52% to 46%...

Rasmussen currently has it tied...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Blue Yorker]

7. Will Rasmussen's 2010 cell-phone problem continue?

Or will he be as good as we was in 2008 before he became the worst?

Question #2; Why didn't you mention that Pew was as accurate as Rasmussen in 2008? Pew has Obama up by 8%.

[liberallibral]

34. I was unaware about Pew...

But regardless, I'm tired of hearing about the polls, because the last thing Democrats need is to become complacent KNOWING we're gonna win... Then it's safe to assume 1 or 2, or a whole bunch of peeps aren't going to wait in line and vote on Election Day.

It's nice to see we're UP, especially in Ohio and Florida - but there's no way in hell I'm going to let any pollsters sway me from working until the last minute and voting on Election Day!

This election is too important!!!

[jenmito]

8. Check with them right before the election. Until then, they skew VERY right. n/t

[mvd]

10. True. Plus, they are the only poll I know of that is showing this

Seems Ras is an outlier.

[jenmito]

14. Yup...

they're definitely an outlier right now. They are Faux's go-to pollster afterall.

[DemzRock]

26. Exactly - some of the polls that are trying to shape opinion rather than report on it...

will try to push to the right. Then last moment they will align their prediction to as close as possible to the real outcome. That way they can claim they were accurate the whole time, even if they weren't.

[nickn777]

29. Correct....and the way I understand it is this....

They use a different breakdown and weighting based on what they expect the voter turnout will actually look like on election day.

Pollsters ask you to identify your political party. Traditional methodology takes the sample and says, "Ok, 42% of my sample says they are democrats, 31% say republican, the rest are independent, etc....". So this is how election day will break out.

So the poll is delivered to you this way.

Ras, on the other hand, will claim that on election day, for example, 39% of the voters will be Dem, 33% will be Repub, the rest independent. They use this based on likely voter models, and past turnout exit polling.

For instance, imagine a world where, no matter how many people said they were Party X, only 1% of the total electorate that ever turned out on election day were actually members of Party X. Then it really wouldn't matter much in your poll how many Party X people you sampled. You know that only 1% will turn out.

In any event, I suspect Ras is way off. There are simply more self-identified, likely voting Democrats now, and the actual election will reflect that fact. Even Faux News polls are more in line with every other poll, so I think Ras is trying to be the one guy that nails it, and proves everyone else wrong.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. Pew

Pew not only tied Rasmussen for 1st last election, but they were consistently more accurate as a predictor throughout the 2008 campaign. Pew has Obama +8. Rasmussen is consistently skewed and has been exposed for bias despite the faact they got it right that one day. Obama is probably up 5-7 points nationally right now, but he has an vice grip on the swing states with Penn and Ohio not really even being swing states anymore.

[Godhumor]

11. Ras is well known to fix polls right before the election

Nate Silver has an excellent breakdown on how Rasmussen was actually the worst pollster for the entirety of the 2010 midterms and was awful in 2008.

In other words, Ras polls are hilariously bad.

[thevoiceofreason]

12. On September 26, 2008, RAs showed Obama up 3, 49-46.

This far out, others were closer.

[DCBob]

20. Get real. Rasmussen is the most biased pollster out there.

They will "correct" their results just prior to the election to trick people like you into thinking they are legit.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Wow

Pushing 75% on Intrade and 80% on Five Thirty Eight.

Romney's campaign is in disarray. This is the week that the money starts to dry up as the big money guys know they'd be throwing good money after bad at the floundering Romney campaign. Romney already has a huge cash deficit, Obama has $80 Million on hand to the Mitt's $50 Million.

The fat lady is clearing her throat.

[jenmito]

18. He's at 76.3 now on Intrade!

And Romney's down to 24.2!

I just noticed I sure am using a lot of exclamation points lately!!

[Thrill]

15. Guess we won't hear the talking heads bringing up Gallup

today

[LakeErieLiberal]

16. This all looks great

But in my opinion...We Cannot Get Complacent At All! We should not be satisfied until those polls say 70% Obama. This is not your Dad's Republican Party...this is a whole different kinda cat (as Ole Joe would say) and it must be repudiated.

These Republicans were willing to throw the country into default. They must be completely shunned. Democrats must control the House and the Senate and put adults back in control and we must not stop even then until this version of the Republican party is gone.

[jenmito]

17. I doubt anyone's getting complacent, but

welcome to DU!

[oswaldactedalone]

19. Keep up the pressure on these right wing asswipes

so we can win a much higher than expected percentage of down ballot races. Every one of them matters.

[DCBob]

21. Why so many warnings about being complacent..

from so many low count posters like youself?

[LakeErieLiberal]

28. Don't mean to act like veteran Democratic Undergrounders

Are indeed getting complacent.

But, I suppose the reason I'm new is I'm a veteran of other politics boards as I enjoy debating with conservatives and they are definitely motivated; haven an entire well-financed right-wing echo chamber feeding the monster and irrational hate for our President.

Just want to keep our eyes on the prize is all.

[DCBob]

31. I dont think complacent is the word..

Its more like being optimistic, excited, and confident which is good because those things breeds enthusiasm. I thnk we are all still wary because we know Republicans lie, cheat, steal and buy elections.

Welcome to DU. Sorry if my post sounded a bit sceptical and harsh. There are alot of frauds here.

Cheers!

[livetohike]

22. So much for Meghan McCain (I still don't get why she is on TV) and her pronouncement on

Rev. Al's show that Pres. Obama and Romney are in a "statistical dead heat". She just said that yesterday.

[DCBob]

23. That's big.

Gallup finally caught up. Cheers!

[jenmito]

24. Martin Bashir just mentioned this poll! n/t

Last edited Wed Sep 26, 2012, 04:02 PM - Edit history (1)

[TroyD]

27. What caused such a huge jump in Gallup's sample?

I think it was +2 yesterday, so that's +4 in one day to go up to +6 overall.

Perhaps this was Gallup picking up the impact of the 47% scandal one week later since it is a 7-day Tracking Poll?

[DCBob]

30. I guess a bad number dropped off..

and really good one took its place.

[Curtland1015]

32. It's neck and neck!

What a horse race!

[DCBob]

33. This removes one big talking point away from the GOPers.

They now only have Raspuken to rely on. I suspect even he will start reporting the truth to keep from dropping in the ratings.