Today's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: South Carolina-Hillary-95%, Bernie-5%

[Alfresco]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/#polls-only

According to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 95% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.

[Yupy]

1. Hello? Sorry to give you bad news: Everything will change after Iowa and NH! Be happy, I am!

[Alfresco]

2. ...

[hack89]

3. There is no reason to believe that

unless you think AA voters are influenced by lily white states like Iowa and VT.

[scscholar]

7. Exactly

Everything always changes. Always changes.

[NurseJackie]

4. Oopf! :-O

Even though the hardcore Bernie fans are certainly, uh, "enthusiastic" ... I think it will be difficult for them to remain convincingly so as we approach Super Tuesday.

I predict that the cheering on Bernie's behalf will become louder, but it will be unmistakably less enthusiastic, and will begin to sound like perfunctory over-compensation.

It won't be long now. When it becomes clear that Bernie has no mathematical pathway to the nomination, peace and harmony will return to this web site.

[Bjornsdotter]

5. I don't know...

...if Nate Silver is right or wrong. My opinion is that Bernie will get more than 5%.

It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.

[Alfresco]

6. ...

Hillary Clinton has an 95% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.

Follow the link provided for more.

[Bjornsdotter]

10. I misread...

...I thought it was 95% of the vote.

Mea culpa....

[lunamagica]

8. K&R Those numbers are AMAZING!

Last edited Thu Jan 28, 2016, 07:14 PM - Edit history (1)

I hope Nate is right (as he usually is)

[frazzled]

9. These numbers are chance of winning, not vote percentages

He's saying she has a 95% chance of winning SC, not that she will win 95% of the vote. Just to make sure everyone read it right.

[Bjornsdotter]

11. Exactly...

...what I did.

[lunamagica]

12. Yes, the OP states that clearly. and a 95% its just AMAZING.

[Alfresco]

13. I expect the numbers to change a little but not the outcome.

[workinclasszero]

14. Wow!

Total domination by the Clinton campaign!

Well you will always have NH Bernie fans

[Alfresco]

15. YoooHooo... :-)