What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa - Nate Silver/538

[WillyT]

What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa
By Nate Silver - 538
Jan 29, 2016


Bernie Sanders speaks during a campaign rally at the Sondheim Center on Thursday in Fairfield, Iowa.
Evan Vucci / AP

<snip>

If you’re dreaming of Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton, you know how the movie begins (he wins Iowa on Monday1), how it ends (he accepts the nomination to a Simon & Garfunkel tune), and one of the major plot lines (black, Hispanic and moderate Democrats, who for now prefer Clinton to Sanders, begin to #feelthebern). You also know who the hapless villain is: Democratic party elites (aka “the establishment”), who will be fighting Sanders every step of the way.

Otherwise, the details are fuzzy. We’re not quite sure how Sanders pulls off this Wes Anderson caper.

Sanders is highly competitive in the first two states, Iowa (where he’s only narrowly behind Clinton) and New Hampshire (where he leads her). However, those states are favorable for Sanders demographically, with Democratic turnout dominated by Sanders’s base of white liberal voters. The question is whether Sanders can expand his coalition into more diverse states that will vote later on and where African-Americans, Hispanics and white moderates make up a larger share of the electorate. He won’t need to win every voter in these groups, but he’ll need enough of them to go from the roughly one-third of Democratic voters he captures in national polls now to the 50-percent-plus he’ll need eventually.

The first challenge for Sanders is that he appears to be trailing in Iowa. Our “polls-only” forecast gives Clinton a 68 percent chance of winning the state, compared with 32 percent for Sanders, on the basis of her being about 4 percentage points ahead in our weighted polling average. Our “polls-plus” forecast, which assigns some additional credit to Clinton because of her massive lead in endorsements, has Clinton as a 76 percent favorite.

To be clear, those forecasts aren’t predicting that Clinton will win Iowa by 30 percentage points. They’re projecting a close finish and saying that Clinton is somewhat more likely — a little better than a 2-to-1 favorite — to come out on top. But Iowa polls are not all that accurate, and even some polls that show Clinton ahead envision Sanders winning if his voters come out. A Sanders win wouldn’t be all that much of an upset, in other words, at least relative to where the polls stand now.

At the same time, it’s not clear that Sanders has momentum in the Hawkeye State. He made major gains when the first few polls came out in January relative to where they’d been in December, making the race much closer. But he’s never quite surpassed Clinton. In fact, Clinton’s had roughly the same 4-point lead in our polling average for a couple of weeks now. We’ll know more after the Des Moines Register, which previously had Clinton 2 points ahead, releases its excellent poll Saturday.

What if Sanders wins Iowa?

But suppose Sanders does win Iowa...

<snip>

Much More: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-bernie-sanders-wins-iowa/

[Robbins]

1. I see silver is trying to hedge his bets

after declaring her likely winner in iowa.he now is saying well bernie could win In iowa.

[demwing]

8. but it wouldn't have any impact

Wins only count when they are for Hillary.

[Nitram]

12. Robbins, Silver is stating his conclusions based on the date.

His explanation is clear and transparent. Always looking for a conspiracy, aren't we? He said Clinton will probably win, but it's close, so it wouldn't be an "upset" if Bernie won. Take a deep breath and calm down.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

16. I think you need to think about probability vs certainty.

"Clinton is the likely winner in Iowa" and "Sanders could win Iowa" are not mutually contradictory statements.

Silver has always said the latter, and so far as I know he's been saying the former all along too (I don't think there's ever been a time he's assigned a higher than 50% chance to Sanders winning Iowa, but I haven't checked that).

[onehandle]

2. Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!

[ypsfonos]

3. a veritable dreidel

[winter is coming]

18. Yeah, but I don't think he made it out of clay.

[DanTex]

4. Key chart:

[ProudToBeLiberal]

5. WillyT will you be honest with me. If Hillary gets the nom, will you vote for her in the GE? nt

[Sheepshank]

6. "Throw them a bone...." n/t

[demwing]

7. Silver shows his colors

Last edited Fri Jan 29, 2016, 05:05 PM - Edit history (1)

In essence - If Bernie wins, it really doesn't mean anything. However, if Bernie loses, it would devastate his campaign.

[Robbins]

9. Silver is lying in fantasyland

if he thinks bernie wins iowa and NH and that doesn't affect race at all.

and as i pointed out back in 1992 Bill Clinton didn't compete In Iowa and he spun second place finish In NH as a win.he didn't compete in both activly and lose.Nor was he inevital frontrunner.Untill he announced he wouldn't run Mario Curomo was national frontrunner.and even after that national polls had Jerry Brown ahead.

You can't compare bill In 1992 and Hilary In 2016 at all.

[hack89]

11. Until Bernie wins a state with a significant percentage of Black voters

it is impossible to determine just how deep his support is. Iowa and NH primary demographics are significantly different than most other states.

[Nitram]

13. Oh, bullshit, demwing.

Silver pointed out that Bernie has advantages in Iowa and NH that he doesn't have elsewhere. The rest follows. Just because you don't like the conclusions he reaches based on his data doesn't mean he has a dog in the fight. You guys really sound paranoid sometimes.

[Ferd Berfel]

10. If he wins Iowa?

HE wins NH, SC and Nevada. Then more Super Delegates start running away from Hillary, Bloomberg jumps in takes any remaining Hope for Hillary;s chances.

Gee I hope I haven't offend anyone?

[Nitram]

14. No offense taken. That's your theory, and it will soon be tested.

I tend to give more credence to Silver's theory, but that's just me.

[demwing]

17. Sorry, responded to the wrong person

[Matariki]

15. Wow, that's a whole lot of condescending language packed into a small space

"he accepts the nomination to a Simon & Garfunkel tune"
"You also know who the hapless villain is: Democratic party elites (aka “the establishment”)"
"We’re not quite sure how Sanders pulls off this Wes Anderson caper"

I thought Silver was supposed to be a smart guy. That's just cheap and intellectually lazy

[HereSince1628]

19. Well, hopefully no one gets cancer in 2016 as Tsongas did.

The narratives about comeback kids leave out some details.

[reformist2]

20. I love how his "polls-plus-fudge-factor" analysis includes endorsements to help Hillary!

To me, the trend lines tell the real story: Bernie continues to trend up. Hillary has converted nobody this entire campaign. Each week her large but weak base of support erodes a little more.