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Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:47 PM

 

Gold standard poll in Iowa: Clinton 45% Bernie 42%

Looking good for Clinton!!

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

Some other things going for Clinton:
- she has the better organizational machinery
- her voters are more committed
- her voters are much more likely to have gone to the caucuses before
- she has the better demographics map (a lot of Bernie's supporters are concentrated in a few college towns)

"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers many of them young is greater."

28 replies, 1456 views

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Reply Gold standard poll in Iowa: Clinton 45% Bernie 42% (Original post)
hill2016 Jan 2016 OP
JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #1
saltpoint Jan 2016 #2
TSIAS Jan 2016 #3
LittleBlue Jan 2016 #4
JudyM Jan 2016 #20
alcibiades_mystery Jan 2016 #5
RiverLover Jan 2016 #6
JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #7
RiverLover Jan 2016 #18
JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #21
redstateblues Jan 2016 #26
basselope Jan 2016 #8
comradebillyboy Jan 2016 #22
basselope Jan 2016 #25
kcjohn1 Jan 2016 #9
alcibiades_mystery Jan 2016 #13
tokenlib Jan 2016 #10
Deny and Shred Jan 2016 #11
TSIAS Jan 2016 #14
Deny and Shred Jan 2016 #23
workinclasszero Jan 2016 #12
retrowire Jan 2016 #15
JI7 Jan 2016 #16
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #17
Karmadillo Jan 2016 #19
JudyM Jan 2016 #24
NowSam Jan 2016 #27
lunamagica Jan 2016 #28

Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:48 PM

1. Within the MOE. It all comes down to turnout. Looking good for Clinton though!

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:48 PM

2. Sounds close. We'll have to see

what happens.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:48 PM

3. A statistical tie

It will be interesting to see their methodology.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:50 PM

4. Looking like she's going to win

 

My only hope for Bernie is the unpredictability of this state. The polls are definitely for Hillary.

Go Bernie

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Response to LittleBlue (Reply #4)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:01 PM

20. Have to get out the vote in the rural areas!!!

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:52 PM

5. The numbers for first time Caucus goers is particularly bad for Sanders

 

I thought Bernie had Iowa in the bag.

It's gonna be close.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:52 PM

6. 3 point difference is good?

I love logic.

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Response to RiverLover (Reply #6)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:54 PM

7. We'd be celebrating if we won the poll. Now it is all about turnout.

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Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #7)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:59 PM

18. Probably so, but only because Bernie is the underdog. 3 points seems close to me.

Really close.

Here's hoping for a huge turnout!!

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Response to RiverLover (Reply #18)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:02 PM

21. I'll say this: shows Clinton has pretty big electability problems if Sanders can nearly edge her out

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Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #21)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:25 PM

26. not considering the demography of Iowa

We'll get a lot more representative primary results in states that are more diverse. If Bernie can't win decisively in Iowa it will spell trouble moving forward. He needs more than a squeaker.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:54 PM

8. Actually pretty bad for Clinton

 

Since you need a 15% margin to support a candidate, that means the ANTI Hilary vote is at 55%

Where are O Malley people more likely to go?

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Response to basselope (Reply #8)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:02 PM

22. They are likely to split

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Response to comradebillyboy (Reply #22)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:17 PM

25. History suggests otherwise.

 

They are more likely to go AGAINST the establishment/ leading candidate.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:54 PM

9. Interesting about

What the poll says about first time voters. The poll assumes 33% where it was 60% during 08.

She says this is the average number. So it really comes down to turnout. If Sanders can get above average turnout he wins easily.

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Response to kcjohn1 (Reply #9)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:57 PM

13. Agreed

 

We will see not only the Iowa result, but a pretty good indication of whether Sanders' claims of energizing voters is accurate. If he loses, and the young, independent, first time caucus goers numbers fail him, then the whole argument about a movement starts to crumble. Iowa tells us more than just who won Iowa.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:56 PM

10. But where did Hillary start? How far ahead??n/t

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:56 PM

11. Why does it add up to 90 and not 100? (eom)

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Response to Deny and Shred (Reply #11)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:57 PM

14. Undecided voters

And those who support O'Malley.

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Response to TSIAS (Reply #14)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:02 PM

23. Got it. Thanks.

O'Malley is actually part of the 90. (45+42+3)

The 10% undecided, if they make it out to the caucus, are a huge factor.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:57 PM

12. Woo-hoo!

 

Go Hillary!

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:57 PM

15. That is a dead heat.

Both of them gained 3 points and have stayed relative to one another.

Oy vey, this is going to be a fight.

Either way, Bernie has the majority of the youth vote and polls over 20 points higher than Hillary when people are asked "Does this candidate care about people like you?"

And the pundits said that that number is normally very telling when it comes to deciding the winner.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:57 PM

16. looks about even to me

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:58 PM

17. Any idea which way O'Malley's supporters break if they don't get to 15%?

 


With only a 3% spread (within the margin of error) Martin's supporters could have a big impact.



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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:01 PM

19. How much of the polling took place before the most recent Clinton email revelations?

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Response to Karmadillo (Reply #19)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:04 PM

24. Good thought. It was 26-29th, pre-news. And how much news coverage is that getting in Iowa?

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:28 PM

27. 42% Like honesty, integrity & a more perfect union

That's pretty good. Ofcourse I'm guessing that most people who don't own a land line (younger voters) so be voting for honesty, integrity and a more perfect union too. So I'd say this looks very good for Bernie.

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Response to hill2016 (Original post)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:43 PM

28. K&R. YEEESSSS!

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