Gold standard poll in Iowa: Clinton 45% Bernie 42%

[hill2016]

Looking good for Clinton!!

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

Some other things going for Clinton:
- she has the better organizational machinery
- her voters are more committed
- her voters are much more likely to have gone to the caucuses before
- she has the better demographics map (a lot of Bernie's supporters are concentrated in a few college towns)

"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater."

[JonLeibowitz]

1. Within the MOE. It all comes down to turnout. Looking good for Clinton though!

[saltpoint]

2. Sounds close. We'll have to see

what happens.

[TSIAS]

3. A statistical tie

It will be interesting to see their methodology.

[LittleBlue]

4. Looking like she's going to win

My only hope for Bernie is the unpredictability of this state. The polls are definitely for Hillary.

Go Bernie

[JudyM]

20. Have to get out the vote in the rural areas!!!

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. The numbers for first time Caucus goers is particularly bad for Sanders

I thought Bernie had Iowa in the bag.

It's gonna be close.

[RiverLover]

6. 3 point difference is good?

I love logic.

[JonLeibowitz]

7. We'd be celebrating if we won the poll. Now it is all about turnout.

[RiverLover]

18. Probably so, but only because Bernie is the underdog. 3 points seems close to me.

Really close.

Here's hoping for a huge turnout!!

[JonLeibowitz]

21. I'll say this: shows Clinton has pretty big electability problems if Sanders can nearly edge her out

[redstateblues]

26. not considering the demography of Iowa

We'll get a lot more representative primary results in states that are more diverse. If Bernie can't win decisively in Iowa it will spell trouble moving forward. He needs more than a squeaker.

[basselope]

8. Actually pretty bad for Clinton

Since you need a 15% margin to support a candidate, that means the ANTI Hilary vote is at 55%

Where are O Malley people more likely to go?

[comradebillyboy]

22. They are likely to split

[basselope]

25. History suggests otherwise.

They are more likely to go AGAINST the establishment/ leading candidate.

[kcjohn1]

9. Interesting about

What the poll says about first time voters. The poll assumes 33% where it was 60% during 08.

She says this is the average number. So it really comes down to turnout. If Sanders can get above average turnout he wins easily.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. Agreed

We will see not only the Iowa result, but a pretty good indication of whether Sanders' claims of energizing voters is accurate. If he loses, and the young, independent, first time caucus goers numbers fail him, then the whole argument about a movement starts to crumble. Iowa tells us more than just who won Iowa.

[tokenlib]

10. But where did Hillary start? How far ahead??n/t

[Deny and Shred]

11. Why does it add up to 90 and not 100? (eom)

[TSIAS]

14. Undecided voters

And those who support O'Malley.

[Deny and Shred]

23. Got it. Thanks.

O'Malley is actually part of the 90. (45+42+3)

The 10% undecided, if they make it out to the caucus, are a huge factor.

[workinclasszero]

12. Woo-hoo!

Go Hillary!

[retrowire]

15. That is a dead heat.

Both of them gained 3 points and have stayed relative to one another.

Oy vey, this is going to be a fight.

Either way, Bernie has the majority of the youth vote and polls over 20 points higher than Hillary when people are asked "Does this candidate care about people like you?"

And the pundits said that that number is normally very telling when it comes to deciding the winner.

[JI7]

16. looks about even to me

[Motown_Johnny]

17. Any idea which way O'Malley's supporters break if they don't get to 15%?

With only a 3% spread (within the margin of error) Martin's supporters could have a big impact.

[Karmadillo]

19. How much of the polling took place before the most recent Clinton email revelations?

[JudyM]

24. Good thought. It was 26-29th, pre-news. And how much news coverage is that getting in Iowa?

[NowSam]

27. 42% Like honesty, integrity & a more perfect union

That's pretty good. Ofcourse I'm guessing that most people who don't own a land line (younger voters) so be voting for honesty, integrity and a more perfect union too. So I'd say this looks very good for Bernie.

[lunamagica]

28. K&R. YEEESSSS!