# 2016 Postmortem

Related: About this forum# Gold standard poll in Iowa: Clinton 45% Bernie 42%

Looking good for Clinton!!

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

Some other things going for Clinton:

- she has the better organizational machinery

- her voters are more committed

- her voters are much more likely to have gone to the caucuses before

- she has the better demographics map (a lot of Bernie's supporters are concentrated in a few college towns)

"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater."

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#### JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)#### saltpoint

(50,986 posts)what happens.

#### TSIAS

(14,689 posts)It will be interesting to see their methodology.

#### LittleBlue

(10,362 posts)My only hope for Bernie is the unpredictability of this state. The polls are definitely for Hillary.

Go Bernie

#### JudyM

(28,444 posts)#### alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)I thought Bernie had Iowa in the bag.

It's gonna be close.

#### RiverLover

(7,830 posts)I love logic.

#### JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)#### RiverLover

(7,830 posts)Really close.

Here's hoping for a huge turnout!!

#### JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)#### redstateblues

(10,565 posts)We'll get a lot more representative primary results in states that are more diverse. If Bernie can't win decisively in Iowa it will spell trouble moving forward. He needs more than a squeaker.

#### basselope

(2,565 posts)Since you need a 15% margin to support a candidate, that means the ANTI Hilary vote is at 55%

Where are O Malley people more likely to go?

#### comradebillyboy

(9,939 posts)#### basselope

(2,565 posts)They are more likely to go AGAINST the establishment/ leading candidate.

#### kcjohn1

(751 posts)What the poll says about first time voters. The poll assumes 33% where it was 60% during 08.

She says this is the average number. So it really comes down to turnout. If Sanders can get above average turnout he wins easily.

#### alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)We will see not only the Iowa result, but a pretty good indication of whether Sanders' claims of energizing voters is accurate. If he loses, and the young, independent, first time caucus goers numbers fail him, then the whole argument about a movement starts to crumble. Iowa tells us more than just who won Iowa.

#### tokenlib

(4,186 posts)#### Deny and Shred

(1,061 posts)#### TSIAS

(14,689 posts)And those who support O'Malley.

#### Deny and Shred

(1,061 posts)O'Malley is actually part of the 90. (45+42+3)

The 10% undecided, if they make it out to the caucus, are a huge factor.

#### workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)Go Hillary!

#### retrowire

(10,345 posts)Both of them gained 3 points and have stayed relative to one another.

Oy vey, this is going to be a fight.

Either way, Bernie has the majority of the youth vote and polls over 20 points higher than Hillary when people are asked "Does this candidate care about people like you?"

And the pundits said that that number is normally very telling when it comes to deciding the winner.

#### JI7

(88,747 posts)#### Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)With only a 3% spread (within the margin of error) Martin's supporters could have a big impact.

#### Karmadillo

(9,253 posts)#### JudyM

(28,444 posts)#### NowSam

(1,252 posts)That's pretty good. Ofcourse I'm guessing that most people who don't own a land line (younger voters) so be voting for honesty, integrity and a more perfect union too. So I'd say this looks very good for Bernie.