The Selzer Poll is statistical dead heat. Wow.

[retrowire]

Both of them gained 3 points and have stayed relative to one another.

Oy vey, this is going to be a fight.

Either way, Bernie has the majority of the youth vote and polls over 20 points higher than Hillary when people are asked "Does this candidate care about people like you?"

And the pundits said that that number is normally very telling when it comes to deciding the winner.

For this to be my first time to get into politics, this has got to be the craziest thing I've experienced. Wow.

[elleng]

1. Link?

[MrChuck]

2. link

http://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/live-video/poll.php

[JRLeft]

3. She's ahead by 3.

[retrowire]

8. "The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points." nt

[JRLeft]

14. It's OK to say she's ahead.

[retrowire]

15. Yeah sure if you want to speculate.

Let's not go twisting facts now.

[JRLeft]

23. I'm not, I'm a Bernie guy, but the polls coming out have consistently had

HRC ahead, this is another poll where she's ahead. News flash! She's ahead.

[retrowire]

26. Polls have also had Bernie ahead.

Depends on the poll.

This poll is a dead heat.

It's not a fact that she's ahead, that's speculation. MOE is 4 points, they're within 3 points of one another. Logic, math, all that jazz.

[JRLeft]

31. Not in Iowa, what one or 2 polls. The what 7 or 8 have had her ahead.

[retrowire]

36. Do you believe all of them? nt

[JRLeft]

39. Yeah when, it's a pattern she's ahead.

[retrowire]

40. Ok then. nt

[Robbins]

42. Your being too much of a defeatest

the trend is more in almost every poll bernie has been gaining.

[JRLeft]

44. All I said was she's ahead, some of you guys are too sensitive.

[Hortensis]

50. Iowans polled feel a lot of respect for their second choice,

whether Bernie or Hillary. The antipathy toward Hillary on DU is not reflected in Iowa Democrats.

[JRLeft]

55. Too many people turn a blind eye to corruption. She's been corrupted by the money.

All of us should be tired of corporate owned politicians but a lot of people aren't. What will it take? The middle class is headed towards extinction, because corporate dems pass laws that cater to the wealthy.

[retrowire]

58. this is why i don't believe EVERY poll btw. nt

[JRLeft]

59. I believe she's ahead, but it's close. Bernie needs his voters to show up in a major way.

[retrowire]

60. let's pull for that major upset then. :) nt

[JRLeft]

61. Go Bernie!

[retrowire]

62. Go Iowa! For Bernie! lol nt

[JRLeft]

64. Iowa and New Hampshire, this is key to changing the dynamics of the race.

If he wins her campaign will begin to fling shit all the place.

[retrowire]

65. if she gets Iowa, and we get new Hampshire...

would that be a tie in delegates?

[JRLeft]

66. I don't know. I remember Obama losing New Hampshire but ended up with more delegates.

[retrowire]

67. hmmm... we may be in for a long haul hmmm... nt

[zeemike]

83. Remember that the corporations own the polls too.

And despite what we are told, polls can be manipulated for an outcome.
And more people are tired of corporate control than you might think if you go by what they tell you.

Just a few weeks ago they were telling us it was a blow out for Hillary, now they say it is close...and I don't think that many minds have been changed on those who support Hillary. But the polls are adjusted so they don't look so bad.

[CorporatistNation]

89. A Poll Is Configured For A Certain Result By HOW The Questions Are Asked...

Corporate America and Mainstream "Press" in charge... Let's see how it goes... Youg people show up and the results are not fucked with... then Bernie WINS... Something else... then Hillary STEALS IT!

[zeemike]

90. That and who they ask.

If it is land lines and people that voted in the last two elections (likely voters) then the results will be somewhat predictable.
But the caucuses are harder to fuck with...unless they do it when adding them up.

[kristopher]

84. Including DMR 5 for H and 2 for S nt

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

[Hortensis]

38. Clinton45%, Bernie42%, within margin of error.

Martin 3%.

@80% agree it is time for woman President.

51% say Bernie is the one who cares most about people like them, 37% Hillary.

83% firmly for Hillary
69% firmly for Bernie
Both are their respondents' second choice, (i.e., Hillary second choice for Bernie's voters and vive versa), having A LOT OF RESPECT for their second choices!

[pangaia]

82. They don't have a lot of choices for their second choice, though.

[Hortensis]

91. No, they don't, do they - but very interestingly so.

O'Malley's a great guy, an extremely viable alternative ideologically between the other two. Yet caucusers wouldn't turn to him because 80% of them also like the "other" main candidate. "Respect" is a word used by the pollster.

It was really wonderful to see that the enmity toward Hillary Clinton on DU is not reflected in Iowa. Of course, that's a state with a strongly liberal Democrat base. That may change as we move to the southern states where they gulp the Kool-Aid like sweet tea, but I hope not much.

[SheilaT]

86. As a woman, I'm a bit

perturbed by "80% agree it is time for a woman President." To me it comes across as the entitlement that I feel Hillary and her supporters are trumpeting.

Personally, I'd LOVE to see a woman President. But not just any woman.

To further illustrate how I feel in this general area: I honestly think that the next Supreme Court Justices should all be women, and we should then have an all female Court for the same length of time we had an all male Court. Just about 200 years. However, we shouldn't wait as long to have a Black female judge as we had to wait for a Black male judge. Let's keep the women diverse.

[pangaia]

92. I like your preferrences for the SC. :>)))

I also would love to see a woman president. BUT not this one.

And I have no doubt that there are a significant number of women voting for Clinton BECAUSE she is a woman. It is the nature of the beast.


And for those who might be about to jump on that statement-----
There is nothing insulting or sexist or whatever about that statement. It simply is the truth.

There are people, probably mostly men, who will NOT vote for Clinton because she is a woman.

I am also sure that many African Americans voted for Obama because he is part AA.

Probably people who voted for Kennedy because he was Catholic..


In the final judgement, I do NOT want THIS woman to be President of the United States.
I want Bernie Sanders to be President of the United States.

[FloridaBlues]

49. She's ahead just like the last 5 polls not one had him up

83% solid for her ..69% solid for him
now that's the real meat and potatoes of this poll.

[Salviati]

68. As well as within MoM's polling numbers

And I think it's a safe prediction that most of them are going to have to end up caucusing for their 2nd choice this time around...

[retrowire]

69. and O'Malley's supporters

lean more towards.... Bernie.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/267573-poll-omalleys-iowa-backers-prefer-sanders-to-clinton

but they are definitely free to vote who they want!

[KingCharlemagne]

72. Does not understand statistics or the phrase "statistical dead heat" - nt

[retrowire]

73. go on....? nt

[KingCharlemagne]

75. I was trying to validate you in your exchange with that other person, as in

"He does not understand statistics . . . "

Apologies for the confusion.

[retrowire]

77. well thank you for going on then. lol my bad. nt

[thesquanderer]

81. Not quite a statistical dead heat

Last edited Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Being 3 points ahead in a poll with a 4 point margin of error means Clinton has a 77% chance of winning, according to that poll.

Basically, it comes down to the fact that not all scenarios within the margin of error have an equal likelihood of occuring.

See:

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/one-last-encore-great-statistical-tie-fallacy

[HereSince1628]

4. looks like OM got 3% leaving enough undecideds

to make Final Jeopardy on Monday night remain uncertain.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

5. Bernie Sander's supporters already spinning the poll. Clinton is ahead by 3. Nt

[retrowire]

9. "The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points." nt

[TDale313]

13. Within the margin of error.

Not spin to call this a statistical dead heat. And yeah, it shows her ahead by three and the caucus format may well favor her- but it's absolutely a tied race right now.

[Warren DeMontague]

21. Who is this Bernie Sander you speak of?

[JRLeft]

41. Not I.

[morningfog]

70. Not spinning, it's math. Within margin of error=tie.

Plus, O'Malleys 3% will go somewhere, not likely to him.

A 3 point lead two days out, within MOE, means it's a dead heat.

[hedda_foil]

6. Thanks

[Metric System]

7. Selzer: "Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest."

[retrowire]

11. Oh look an opinion. nt

[Agschmid]

16. Those are allowed.

[retrowire]

20. I know. nt

[Agschmid]

24. Good.

[Metric System]

17. Well, she did conduct the poll.

[retrowire]

19. I know. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. This reminds me of when my favorite basketball team gets a win...

This reminds me of when my favorite basketball team gets a win and I go to a sports board and the fans of the vanquished team try to say it really wasn't a win to bring me down.

I am not going to get sucked in.

This is a great day!

[retrowire]

46. Don't be discouraged by facts geez. MOE is 4, big deal. Just try harder. nt

[Metric System]

10. "Clinton's support is more solid than Sanders', and her advantage with women overrides his

advantage with youth voters, Iowa Poll shows."

Tweeted by Des Moines Register chief politics reporter.

[retrowire]

12. We'll see. nt

[in_cog_ni_to]

18. Go Bernie!

“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. “If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied."

“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

[retrowire]

22. We know we have the energy.

If we can get those rallies to go caucus for Bernie then we will win.

[in_cog_ni_to]

27. Yep...43% of Iowans identify as "Socialist" too.

He has the Millennials, the Independents, men and the enthusiasm.



PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[retrowire]

29. That was a pleasant surprise. nt

[KingFlorez]

25. Statisical dead heat is loserspeak

Same as "the only poll that matters is the one on election day."

Clinton is ahead, even if it is narrowly she is still ahead. The disparity between the topline and the care question demonstrates that head over heart voting is playing a major role here.

[retrowire]

28. guess who I'm not listening to for the rest of this political race?

"loserspeak"

To the playground with you child. XD

Learn to deal with MOE's and facts. Elections are seriously business okay?

Bye now, you're on ignore.

[JRLeft]

34. Bernie could still win, but she's ahead.

[retrowire]

53. why are you still forcing your opinion on someone

who has politely disagreed with you?

[KingFlorez]

43. Someone is touchy

[saltpoint]

30. If you're interested in the notion of

'losers,' your gal may yet prevail in the final tally for the Iowa caucuses, but the poll indicates that the massive fucking lead she once held is now within the margin of error.

If you win, you win. But Selzer has indicated an extremely close race.

[cali]

71. Don't know what a MoE is, eh?

[KingCharlemagne]

74. Nor, apparently, what "statistical dead heat" is either - nt

[onehandle]

32. The seven people in my office under 30 are not registered to vote. nt

[retrowire]

45. People can register on caucus night. :) Let them know! nt

[Qutzupalotl]

47. Good thing Iowans can register at the caucuses to vote and participate.

Even if they're as young as 17, provided they turn 18 before election day. Yay!

[saltpoint]

48. Urge them to participate. eom

[Kokonoe]

63. Why would an establishment supporter want a common person to vote.

[KingCharlemagne]

79. Now now. just because Republicans want to depress turnout and

Hillary's prospects depend on depressing turnout, there 's no need to get snippy.

[KingCharlemagne]

76. How depressing and telling is that? - nt

[JI7]

87. did you tell them they should ?

[snagglepuss]

35. This is a good thing as it will light a fire under the pants of Bernie supporters

to caucus.

[retrowire]

37. It had better.

I'm saying it everywhere now, get those rally numbers into the caucuses.

[sadoldgirl]

51. Congratulations to the HRC supporters!Enjoy your day!

What worries me more than anything else is
that Trump seems to pull it off.

I still had a hope that he was mostly hyped,
but that seems to have been a forlorn hope.

[Hortensis]

57. I'm more comfortable, all right,

but of course a high turnout would benefit Bernie...

The whole Trump thing is shameful and disgusting, and scary. But he probably doesn't have a chance against Hillary anyway, and maybe even Bernie. Just as Bernie has not yet come under real attack, neither has Trump.

[still_one]

78. Unfortunately it wasn't hyped for Trump. Watching the volatility of the polls I felt Iowa would be

close for the Democrats and it is. While Clinton may have a slight edge over Sanders in this poll, it is essentially a tie.

I wish more folks on all sides on DU showed as much class as you

[SheenaR]

52. Few things

I indicated earlier and still say Selzer is the best. Not walking back.

From Twitter

Gentle reminder to those anxiously awaiting DMR/Selzer, their last pre-IA 2012 poll had Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%...

From Poll

Under 35- Sanders 63% Clinton 27%

It's a shame that the future of our nation may have to wait longer for real change

[retrowire]

54. in the end, my vote is Bernie's.

we just need those rally numbers in the caucuses!

[SheenaR]

56. Hard to believe internals

Didn't have similar numbers. It's how many can we get out now.

[KingCharlemagne]

80. Explains the panic in Camp Weathervane. - nt

[mvd]

85. If Bernie loses Iowa, I think it may be hard, but..

I'm with him until the end of his campaign. I still think he can do it. I have never been so excited about a candidate before.

[retrowire]

88. I do too. This is only a dead heat from a poll that sampled 3000 people.

"The thing to remember is that Selzer went with the average turnout for first-time caucus-goers. Even with that, Hillary's lead is within the MOE. Does anyone here expect the turnout for first-time caucus-goers to be "average"? Does anyone here think a higher turnout among first-time caucus-goers will work to Hillary's advantage?"