Axelrod re DMR poll: "the race now is ... essentially tied ... Turnout is everything."

[Karmadillo]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

<edit>

“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. “If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied."

“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."

[restorefreedom]

1. the poll watchers will be able to clue us in

they won't know results, but if this turnout is like his rallies, it will be a very good night for bernie
we might know something based on the number of people going in.....

edit...227,000 in 2008

[nc4bo]

2. Axelrod's turn to be called a dummy as he said it's essentially

tied.

Big dummy

It's all about the turnout. Yes it is!

Bern it up Iowans!

[Jarqui]

3. Weather forecast seems pretty good

https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USIA0231:1:US

http://www.kcci.com/weather/forecast

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/hourly-weather-forecast/iowa/des-moines

There is a storm coming in but right now (hope) it arrives after the caucuses after midnight

Right now, weather isn't a factor which is good for Bernie.

[Jarqui]

4. For Sanders supporters, this was very encouraging for turnout

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511097568

They have the enthusiasm and volunteers so it seems to come down to organization of the effort and as Axelrod said, how to bring the new folks up to speed quickly on the process.

[JRLeft]

5. High turnout is needed to offset the small lead she has, hopefully he

can get the undecided vote.

[cui bono]

6. Turnout... Now if you were going to have to go out in the cold, possibly rain/snow and vote...

would the same old same old we can't change things anyway candidate get you to drag yourself out or would the can do let's fix this country and give the working people a better life candidate get you to come out?

Basing voter turnout on the crowds at rallies it would appear that Bernie could win this in a landslide. We'll see...

FEEL THE BERN!!!


.

[dixiegrrrrl]

7. Go millenials, Go!!!!

Nice young strong weather proof folks......

[Jarqui]

8. "Turnout is everything," Axelrod said.

"If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."

2004 145,000 voted 17% 18-29, 15% 30-44, 41% 45-64, 27% 65+
2008 250,000 voted 22% 18-29, 18% 30-44, 38% 45-64, 22% 65+

Obama got the kids out. The kids were the difference.

Hillary's biggest strength is 65+ and women
Sanders biggest strength is 18-29 and men

Axelrod is right in that if Sanders gets a good turnout of those youth we saw lined up at the schools, etc, then he'll win as they'll more than offset Hillary's advantage with the older folks.

Bernie can still win this. Kind of neat that kids just coming into politics could once again make a significant difference in their first election.