Intrade. 79% - around 6 PM Fri

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Fri Sep 28, 2012, 06:00 PM - Edit history (5)

seems to be going up about 1% per day. pretty good trajectory (yes, I know it is only Intrade!)

[Doctor Jack]

1. No he isn't. Stop lying

He is at 77.4%

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. wow - .4% in 5 minutes!

[Voice for Peace]

3. can you explain what Intrade is and why it matters?

I'm just ignorant about it.

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. From what I gather, it is where people bet on all sorts of results....

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

just something fun to look at - political polling sites reference it as well - RCP always tracks it.

I guess you could say that when money and betting is involved, it is one pretty fair indication of general trends - since people don't like to lose money!

[awake]

4. Check out IEM

Iowa Electronic Market
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/data_pres12.html

IEM Daily Price Graph - Pres12_WTA
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. now that's pretty cool to look at - thanks for posting!

[Cali_Democrat]

7. Nate Silver Now Cast: Obama 97.8% Romney 2.2% chance of winning.

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. and that's yesterday's data...waiting for tonight's update!

Nate tends to update between 8-10 EST, though it can vary.

[Texas Lawyer]

9. The Iowa Electronic Markets have the President at 80%

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

[NRaleighLiberal]

10. kicking with an update as of Fri AM.

[Doctor Jack]

11. Just an amazing number wake up to

Here's hoping the trend continues