Even beyond the polls, Clinton's advantage is the geography of Iowa

[hill2016]

College students are concentrated in college towns which means their votes are "wasted". Clinton has support all over the state.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Why don't you want college students to vote?

[hill2016]

3. I do...

as much as possible...but I want them to stay safe and caucus in their college towns. No point driving in the dark on icy roads.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. Riiiiight....

[Hortensis]

46. You are right that we don't want a surge

of youth vote to hand Iowa to Bernie. That'd not only just help drag out this very tedious enmity on DU, but also a dragged out primary battle would weaken our candidate for the general.

BUT -- We absolutely do in general want young people to vote. I forgot the precise number I read, but if only about 5% more young voters turned out across the nation, we'd sweep politicians serving business instead of the people out of office across the nation. We could fix everything that's gone wrong with our nation over the past 30 years.

One of Bernie's most important contributions to democracy and progressive liberalism is that he has engaged more young people in politics. Callooh, callay! The trick is to keep them involved for the general and in future, and I'm really hoping Bernie will continue working hard for revolution that way.

[Gothmog]

6. In a caucus system, delegates are allocated on the basis of past votes

27% of Sanders supporters are located in counties that count for 12% of the delegates. That means that these votes are being counted but will yield fewer delegates than votes in some rural counties

[winter is coming]

13. Not accurate; see post #12. n/t

[RBInMaine]

27. Where do these wild-eyed statements come from? Who said college kids shouldn't vote?

How do you go from an observation about geographical demographics to "Why don't you want college kids to vote?" Did the poster EVER, EVER say that? NO! Please, enough of the wild-leap statements. All the poster is saying is that if the college students votes are concentrated in a few areas and Hillary has support in many more geographical areas, that is an advantage given how the delegates are proportioned. My goodness, enough of the wild stretches.

[1StrongBlackMan]

53. How, ever, did you get ...

an observation that Bernie's youth vote is concentrated in three areas equally not wanting college students to vote?

[Gothmog]

2. This could be a big advantage

Most students have class on Monday or Tuesday http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451

In 2008, the caucuses were held on Jan. 3, when most college students were home on winter break. That meant that Obama's army of young supporters could caucus at their parents' homes all over the state, and not waste their support in Johnson or Story counties, home to the University of Iowa and Iowa State University, respectively.

The Sanders campaign is working to encourage college students to return home to caucus, and helping to arrange travel. But it's a big organizational lift and asking a lot of a demographic that has historically already been reluctant to turn out. The caucuses are on a Monday night, so students will have classes on the day of the caucuses and the next morning.

"I still think HRC by 5 in Iowa," Mitch Stewart, who was Obama's director of field operations for the Iowa Caucuses in 2008 and now backs Clinton, said in a tweet Saturday.

It takes a great deal of effort to get someone to go to a caucus in the first place and now you want to bus them across the state on a school night. We will see if this works

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Why don't you want college students to vote?

Shouldn't we all be encouraging young people to get involved in the political process instead of hoping they won't be able to go to caucuses?

[hill2016]

8. I do hope they caucus

but I want them to be safe as well. No driving across dark icy roads. Caucus in their college towns!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. What about all the other people who might be driving on icy roads?

Don't you worry about them, too?

[KingFlorez]

11. Indeed

Voting is important, but not at the risk of safety. No candidate is worth all that.

[JonLeibowitz]

14. Certainly not your candidate. But Bernie is indeed worth it. n/t

[Live and Learn]

17. +10,000 And the college students know it.

Amazing how these people that support a candidate that would happily send young people to war are suddenly worried about their safety driving.

[JonLeibowitz]

20. It's perfectly transparent and incredibly insulting

I don't know how I can respect such people. I will probably move to jackpine if this primary doesn't go the right way.

The things I have seen on DU these past months (after lurking) I would never expect from Democrats.

[Live and Learn]

21. Very true. I plan to fill up my ignore list regardless of who wins the primary.

I only have it empty now so I can see what the enemy is up to (so to speak). But after the primary, I will have no need to ever hear from some of the people here again.

[riversedge]

35. I worry about anybody driving in a snow storm or when snowing. I hope all

stay safe.

[Live and Learn]

37. Good, tell your Hillary supporters to stay home, then. nt

[riversedge]

38. You make crap up and then tell it to me and others. ha ha

[Live and Learn]

39. You made the crap up and the tried to use the Rovian tactic of blaming me.

Too bad, we all are quite aware of the tactics already. Try something new.

[riversedge]

43. Thanks for the bump on a good OP

[Live and Learn]

44. So you don't understand the difference between kicks and recommends either?

6 recs does not a good op make.

[riversedge]

47. No matter, Thanks again for the bump

[RBInMaine]

28. No one ever, ever said they shouldn't vote. You are saying something that is off the beam.

[Live and Learn]

34. Telling them not to attempt to make it to the place they are legally allowed to caucas seems to be

telling them not to vote. Or perhaps some are trying to get them arrested for voting illegally? And, I am sure you would blame Bernie for it.

Shame on all of you!

[1StrongBlackMan]

55. Where did the OP do that? eom.

[riversedge]

66. Stop making up vile comments and saying Hillary supporter said it. Makes you look foolish.

[Live and Learn]

67. I guess you missed it. Herer it is:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1100415

[mcar]

60. Please link to posts

from DUers stating they don't want college students to vote.

[Live and Learn]

68. Here you go:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1100415

[mcar]

69. That in no way states or suggests that college students "shouldn't vote"

It just doesn't.

[Live and Learn]

72. Yes it does because they can't vote there if they aren't registered there and she knows it. nt

[mcar]

73. They can register that day

The Iowa SOS website says so:

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/edr.html

[Live and Learn]

74. Not if they are alreaady registered. Good gawd, it really isn't that complicated.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/collegestudents.html

Stop giving out wrong information.

[hill2016]

7. this

Take the university towns: More than a quarter — 27 percent — of Sanders supporters come from just three counties of Iowa's 99, according to theRegister poll, each home to one of the state's largest universities. But those three counties award only 12 percent of the total 1401 delegates at stake statewide.

[winter is coming]

12. It's 21%, not 12%. NBCnews transposed the digits. That's a huge difference.

According to the Des Moines Register:

The U.S. senator from Vermont, who is favored by many young liberals, holds a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in Black Hawk County, home to the University of Northern Iowa; Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa; and Story County, home to Iowa State University. His support tops hers by 52 percent to 30 percent in those counties, the poll shows.

Those three counties account for 27 percent of his supporters, though they hold just 21 percent of all likely Democratic caucus participants, poll director Ann Selzer said.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/14/sanders-could-be-hurt-by-concentration-of-young-fans/78741864/

[KingFlorez]

10. That's why a broad geographic strategy is important

In a primary you have to hit as many counties as possible, even the ones with fewer registered Democrats. Every vote counts.

[riversedge]

36. It has become clique to say the every vote counts but in iowa this year wi

a close race--it does indeed matter.

[CoffeeCat]

15. Whenever I see this analysis

(And I see it a lot) I find it to be grossly incomplete.

The suggestion is that Bernie does well in these Iowa college towns, but those college towns only yield 21 percent of the delegate count--as if the college towns are the only support that Bernie has.

That's simply not true.

Polk County is by far the most populous county. Polk County carries 18 percent of Iowa's total delegates--a huge number. Bernie is doing very well in Polk County (home to Des Moines, and the surrounding suburbs). Polk county is very progressive and has a large millennial population. There are also four colleges/universities in Polk County which means a large contingent of young progressives--Bernie's base. I live in a conservative, upper-mid class Des Moines suburb. Bernie has an office here (Hillary does not). No doubt it will be close here. This is typically more Hillary territory due to the demographics. But Bernie is fighting hard here. A perfect example of an area that Vlinton has the advantage, but Bernie is fighting hard for those delegates.

Bernie has implemented that strategy in many Iowa mid-sized towns like mine--where he has an office, volunteer efforts and has hosted rallies in those areas.

Obama won Polk County in 08, signaling its tendency to favor the more liberal candidate. Since 2008, there's been a huge influx of young people living in downtown Des Moines, as that area has been completely revitalized. It's more liberal than 2008.

Sanders is also doing well in Cedar Rapids (the second largest city in the state) which has a large population of blue-collar workers and middle-class Progressives. Cedar Raoids also has a few colleges as well, which means many young, liberals--Bernie's demographic base. Many do not know that Cedar Rapids is home to a large population of Muslims (the town boasts the oldest US mosque). Bernie did extensive outreach with the Muslim community in CR and spoke at one of their mosques.

Bernie has also done extensive outreach to the Hispanic community in Iowa. Thus will help in some smaller, more conservative towns, as well as in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

Bernie has also gone after conservative (western areas) of Iowa that Clinton won in 2008. Bernie has held numerous rallies and events here that were extremely well attended. He also has a few offices in the west with solid volunteers efforts.

Bernie has 27 offices across Iowa. He's got a strong presence throughout the state, not just in those college towns. Bernie has been traveling all over Iowa, beyond the big three university towns mentioned. He's criss crossed these state and has been visiting cities, small towns and suburbs.

His scope stretches far beyond those three college towns in Iowa. Bernie will kick butt in those three college towns for sure (I bet he snags 70 percent of those delegates), but he'll kick butt beyond those areas.

[hill2016]

16. then why is his campaign

encouraging college students to go home to caucus, if they don't believe that the demographics/geographical distribution favors Clinton?

[Live and Learn]

18. Don't be silly, they have to vote where they are registered to vote. nt

[Helen Borg]

23. obviously...

[Live and Learn]

24. One would think. Yet, Hill2016 keeps telling them to caucus wherever they are. Hmmmm. nt

[Helen Borg]

25. Go figure...

[frylock]

77. Smells like rodent copulation.

[Fearless]

19. WOW. Just WOW.

You do know that most college students are registered in their HOME TOWNS not in the place they go to college right?

[Live and Learn]

22. Yes they know it. Trying to keep people from voting is an utterly disgusting tactic but nothing is

below some of them.

[RBInMaine]

29. No one is telling anyone not to vote. You are making a wild eyed leap. Stop it.

[Live and Learn]

32. Telling people to vote where they are not registered is telling people not to vote.

You are wrong.

[all american girl]

40. I think you can register the same day.

[Live and Learn]

41. Nope. nt

[all american girl]

42. Sorry, I was wrong

[Live and Learn]

45. No problem, it should be that way and if Bernie gets his way, it will.

Plus, we will get a day off to encourage voting.

[questionseverything]

51. yes people can register on caucus night

http://thebernreport.com/bernie-sanders-releases-video-on-how-to-caucus-in-iowa/

not clear as to wether a person can change address on caucus night if they are already registered but clearly if never registered they can register on caucus night

[Live and Learn]

70. That is true but if they are already registered they have to vote where they are registered.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/collegestudents.html

[questionseverything]

75. it just says they can't be registered in both places

they do have same day registration so i would think they could change addresses also but that is not clear either

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/edr.html

people move all the time so hopefully there is an easy way to change the addy of registration

[Live and Learn]

79. It is pretty damn clear to me. You vote where you are registered.

You can register on the day of the election IF you are not already registered.

The problem is that some here are giving bad advice without knowing what they are talking about and others are being downright dishonest.

[beam me up scottie]

26. Never thought I'd see someone trying to suppress voter turnout on a Democratic website.

Especially for young people who will be casting their first vote for a candidate. Stay home, don't drive, it's dangerous!

Remind me which website I'm on again?

[RBInMaine]

30. No one is telling people not to vote. You are making wild eyed paranoid statements.

[beam me up scottie]

31. Post #8:

I want them to be safe as well. No driving across dark icy roads. Caucus in their college towns!

Speaking of wild eyed paranoid statements isn't it time for another one of your "WE WONT ELECT A SOCIALIZT EVER !!1!" ops?

[Live and Learn]

33. +1000 nt

[dsc]

48. Is that true?

I admit to having no earthly idea one way or the other, but given that they can't vote absentee I find it hard to believe that the majority are registered back home and not on their campuses.

[Fearless]

50. It is. School dorms are not considered permanent residences.

[dsc]

54. they most certainly are

the Supreme Court has made that abundantly clear. You are just plain wrong on that. Students may decide to vote absentee from their hometowns (I did that for one year at college and then voted from my dorm address for the other three) but they can, and I am pretty sure many do, vote from their dorm rooms.

http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/student-voting-guide-iowa

Here is the relevant info about Iowa

Under Iowa law, your voting residence is the place you declare to be your home with the intent to remain there for any amount of time.[11]

At School. Iowa law expressly allows students who consider themselves residents of Iowa as well as another place (such as their parent’s home) to choose either their home or school address for voter registration and voting purposes.[12] Students have the right to cast a ballot as a resident of Iowa regardless of whether they pay in-state or out-of-state tuition.

At Home. Students who lived in Iowa but moved to another state for school, and who wish to establish or keep their Iowa voting residency (i.e., at their parents’ address), should have no problem doing so unless they have already registered to vote in another state.

Like all states, Iowa allows students to keep their voting residency even if they temporarily move out of the county or state to attend school. The only way you will lose this residency is if you “abandon” it by claiming the right to vote in a new state through registering to vote or voting in another state.[13] If you have claimed the right to vote elsewhere and are moving back to Iowa with the intent to reside here, you will have to follow the normal registration procedures to re-register at home.

end of quote

This has been red letter law for decades.

The relevant case, from 1979, is Symm V US

[hill2016]

57. thank you!

I think you mean black letter law?

[Fearless]

61. Why don't you go ask a college student where they vote

In Massachusetts, it's at home.

[dsc]

62. No it isn't

they have the choice in every single state. I went so far as to give you the case citation to back it up. The fact you are ignorant of the law doesn't make the law different from what it is. Students are entitled to vote where they are attending school or where their parents live (and where they lived before going to school). It has been the law since Carter was in the White House and is still controlling. This issue was just relitigated in NC and yes, it was upheld yet again. And BTW here is the relevant text for Massachusetts.

Residency

At School. Students can establish residency in Massachusetts if they have a present intention to remain at their Massachusetts school address for the time being, and they intend to make it their principal home. Any other interpretation of the residency laws is unconstitutional.[4] Massachusetts courts have long interpreted the law to allow students to establish residence in their college towns.[5]

At Home. Students who lived in Massachusetts prior to attending school and who wish to establish or keep their Massachusetts voting residency (i.e., at their parents’ address), should have no problem doing so unless they have already registered to vote in another state.[6] Like most states, Massachusetts allows students to keep their voting residency even if they move out of the county or state to attend school. The only way you may lose this residency is if you “abandon” it by asserting residency in a new state. While registering to vote in another state is not automatically considered an abandonment of residency in Massachusetts, some judges or officials might view it as such. If you have established residency in another state and are moving back to Massachusetts with the intent to reside here, you will have to follow the normal registration procedures to re-register in Massachusetts.

http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/student-voting-guide-massachusetts

[Fearless]

63. Your quotes illustrate what I said.

Like most states, Massachusetts allows students to keep their voting residency even if they move out of the county or state to attend school. The only way you may lose this residency is if you “abandon” it by asserting residency in a new state. While registering to vote in another state is not automatically considered an abandonment of residency in Massachusetts, some judges or officials might view it as such. If you have established residency in another state and are moving back to Massachusetts with the intent to reside here, you will have to follow the normal registration procedures to re-register in Massachusetts.

As I said, most college students, like I was five years ago... Vote absentee ballots or go home to vote. I don't care what you think people do. This is what people do. I still live in that same college town. If you want I'll walk down the street and ask the first ten students I see.

[dsc]

64. I said they have the choice

you are saying, or were certainly implying, they had to vote from their previous addresses, the fact is they don't, they can vote either place. I haven't a clue where they are voting but they have the choice, and have had that choice since the Carter Administration.

[Fearless]

65. I said what they do.

[dsc]

49. Yet another reason caucuses are bad ideas

by not allowing absentee voting, it forces people to vote on campuses when they might prefer to vote in their hometowns. The fact it might benefit my candidate doesn't make it right.

[DefenseLawyer]

52. "Just win, baby"

It's a proud moment indeed when you seek an advantage for your candidate by suggesting people that might support another candidate just shouldn't vote. Al Davis would be proud.

[hill2016]

58. no

I just pointed out that having all your supporters concentrated in a few counties is a disadvantage when fighting for state-wide delegates.

[DefenseLawyer]

59. And you're encouraging them to stay as concentrated as possible

By not going to their home districts around the state to caucus; purely out of concern for their safety, naturally.

[MineralMan]

56. Delegates to the national convention are awarded according

to congressional districts, each of which is set up to have approximately the same population as the others. In the same way, individual precincts are set up to have roughly the same number of registered voters as the other precincts.

The idea is to spread delegate selection across the state according to population density. That means that there are more precincts in densely-populated parts of the state. The entire system is designed on the one person one vote concept.

Typically, there will be one or two precincts located where a college or university is, assuming that the students there are registered at their college address, which is often not the case. Many students have their voter registration at their home address. It varies.

Bottom line is that there will, no doubt, be precincts where Sanders wins and precincts where Clinton wins. In the cities, where there are multiple precincts, some will go one way and some another.

We will not know the actual delegate count for some time. There will be good estimates, but there are a couple of levels of conventions to go before the delegates are actually selected. It's complicated.

For more info on Iowa's delegate selection process:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IA-D

It will take a little study to understand exactly how it works, BTW.

[SidDithers]

71. DU rec...nt

Sid

[hoosierlib]

76. And that's why...

Bernie is bussing students back to their home towns...

Enjoy the revolution as it will televised...

[frylock]

80. Smart man. Smart campaign.

#fearthebern

[hoosierlib]

81. Indeed...

Hence the vitrial and desperate tactics by the HRC campaign...

[liberal N proud]

78. College student votes are not wasted, but rather they are offset by the rest of Iowa

Iowa is 99 counties there are less than 50 colleges in Iowa.