2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEx-Governor of Iowa Vilsack: Clinton has geographic advantage in Iowa
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/01/us/politics/hillary-clintons-quiet-support-will-carry-iowa-ex-governor-predicts.htmlMr. Vilsack said polls that showed Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump in front were misleading because they did not reflect the geographic distribution of their support. Most of the passion for both men is concentrated around Iowas cities, Mr. Vilsack said. That will help them win caucus gatherings near the cities, but it wont help them across the rest of rural Iowa, he said.
Trump has the same challenge that Sanders has, I think, Mr. Vilsack said. If you have a big turnout in Des Moines, thats great. But if you lose Plymouth, OBrien, Cass, Montgomery, Mills Counties, it can overshadow the fact that you had 350 people at Ward 1 in Des Moines. Youve got to be smart about this.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)I doubt Bernie will give him a job in the 2017 - 2025 Sanders Era of responsible US government.
hill2016
(1,772 posts)he knows how the caucus system works in Iowa
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)And that's why he is showing fear. Months ago I'm sure it was H has got this. Now it's: here's how we might get lucky and squeak out a win. Lame stuff. But then we have seen the Bern turn the elites into lames time and again, eh?
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)JRLeft
(7,010 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Flying Phoenix
(114 posts)Clinton won't win a lot of delegates. I expect her to get maybe 4-5 delegates, and Bernie will obtain the the rest of them.
NH - it's Bernie country, as is NV and rapidly SC. Clinton's SuperTuesday firewall is already broken, Clinton will go broke before the end of March.
angrychair
(12,504 posts)In the 2008 and 2012 elections polk county, by itself, had more Democratic votes than those other counties combined. Over 4 times as more. Sanders winning that county and doing well in those other counties, would likely set him well ahead of Clinton.
Proof? Go to Iowa Sec of State site and do the research I did.
SidDithers
(44,333 posts)Sid
TSIAS
(14,689 posts)He'll energize the liberals, although not as much as an Evan Bayh would.
Response to hill2016 (Original post)
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