Today's live phone Quinnipiac poll (Sanders 49%; Clinton 46%). Do not be fooled by robo-call polling
When people being polled are not talking to a real person, they say they support Trump or Clinton in higher numbers than people report when they are giving a live response to a real person or being polled according to other accepted polling methods.
Here is the aggregation of all robo-call polls in Iowa (including today's):
Looks like Clinton has an 8% lead.
Here is an aggregation of all the accepted methodology Iowa polls where data was gathered by live landline and cell phone polling (e.g., Quinnipiac, Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer, NBC/WSJ/Marist, Monmouth University, ARG, Iowa State/WHO-HD, FOX, CNN, Loras College, Mason-Dixon/AARP, NBC/Marist, Suffolk/USA Today, Suffolk) UPDATED TO INCLUDE TODAY'S QUINNIPAC POLL:
Looks like a dead heat with Sanders coming into the caucus with a lot of momentum.
I'm not a huge fan of internet-based polling because it is not as reliable or as well accepted as live landline and cell phone polling, but it is much more reliable than robo-call polling. Here is an aggregation of the internet based Iowa polls (e.g., CBS/YouGov, Morning Consult):
This internet polling confirms the live landline and cell phone polling and refutes the robo-call polling.
Don't be confused by the junk polls out there, the Iowa caucuses are tied.
Also, bear in mind that attempting to poll a primary is much harder than polling a general election, and attempting to poll a caucus is much harder than polling a primary. A poll is a poll -- the caucus is the vote. The aggregate of polling in Iowa in 2008 understated Obama's support by 7% and understated Edwards support by 4% (but pretty much nailed the ceiling for third-place Clinton's support). Polls provide a general picture of the movement in the race, but getting out the vote is what provides delegates.
This is the sprint to the finish. Let's finish strong!
= new reply since forum marked as read
Sanders is ahead if you focus on the best and most reliable pollsters using live landline and cell polling methods (Quinnipiac, Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer, NBC/WSJ/Marist, ARG, CNN, NBC/Marist):
This is not a subset of polls favorable to Sanders (it includes the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer, NBC/WSJ/Marist, and NBC/Marist polls that have been very favorable to Clinton this cycle in Iowa). This is subset of polls using the best methodologies.
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