2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton wins ALL 6 (SIX) precinct coin flips -- Odds: 1 in 64 (1.56%) (EDITED SEE BELOW)
It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.
...
Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moines, in Newton, in West Branch and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/
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EDIT: https://twitter.com/instamom1970/status/694345032183238656
Make that odds of 6/7. Which is still pretty lucky for Clinton. 5.5% by my calculations.
MADem
(135,425 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)Maybe more people will realize that now. I wish my state would switch to a primary.
valerief
(53,235 posts)But it's bizarre they give all the votes to HRC in these instances and don't share some of the tosses with Bernie, especially since he got just as many votes at each precinct with these tosses.
This is bullshit and election fraud!
joshcryer
(62,270 posts)valerief
(53,235 posts)race, too.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)of what are called independent and identically distributed events of probability.
valerief
(53,235 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)If people have left, and they can't re-count them, they have to do something and this is how they resolve it.
Luck was with HRC. That's life.
How do you "share" a toss? Heads Sanders, Tails Clinton. Flip. Tails. Clinton wins.
Why would they "give" it to Sanders if their process calls for a coin toss?
Makes no sense.
What they really should do is eliminate Iowa as a first-in-the-nation contest. It's long, grinding, boring and frankly, pointless. The candidates spend way too much time there (and in NH, too), kissing ass, and the caucus system in IA is IDIOTIC--the Democrats are much more idiotic than the GOP, who just vote.
They'd do well to pick a different mid-sized state every election year, and let us see a different part of the country for a change. I'm sick of the Iowa State Fair shots. And the downtown Manchester stand ups in front of the Raddisson!
Standing around in a room having to tell people who you support is a real reason why the turnout at those things sucks--aside from the exclusion of shift workers and service workers. I think they got twelve percent this year, and they were proud of themselves. That's just awful.
Of course, these states know these stupid things are worth BILLIONS to them in revenue--that's why they snarl like cornered cheetahs when anyone suggests that someone else get a shot at it.
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)And why are our two bellwether states small, rural, and heavily white?
Maybe this has opened some eyes.
MADem
(135,425 posts)It's a very male-centric, caucasian process with lots of pandering to religious elements.
Doing well in those states really is no guarantee for our nominee, but it is a useful win for the Republicans.
ladjf
(17,320 posts)valerief
(53,235 posts)ladjf
(17,320 posts)Ans. 1 in 16.
MADem
(135,425 posts)It was one coin at one site tossed once. And this scenario was repeated at other sites, with different coins.
Apparently, per the news right now, Sanders also won a few coin tosses.
karynnj
(59,503 posts)It is (1/2) ** n where n is the number of tosses. If there are 6, it is 1/64 as the op said.
valerief
(53,235 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)because we have them in my state.
Not inclusive -- leave out people who are traveling, ill, or who work during that time
Not one-person, one-vote.
No secret ballot.
Delegates aren't awarded proportionately to numbers of votes
But the coin flipping was new for me.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)For example, in a 2 delegate precinct, if one candidate gets 25% of the voters, and the other gets 75% -- they both get 1 of the delegates.
So one person could win "big time" and we might never know it, because they don't report individual vote counts.
Everyone should hate caucuses -- not just in Iowa. They should be replaced by primaries everywhere.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)valerief
(53,235 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Most, if not all, were recorded on cellphones, too.
valerief
(53,235 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)How long have they used this advanced coin toss method?
Why don't they wait and see how many ties there are and then split them?
BERNIE. BECAUSE FUCK THIS SHIT!!!
.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)for each precinct based on how many people have voted there IN THE PAST.
So some small county may only have 2 delegates. If you have at least 25% of the votes, you WILL get one of the delegates. So if one person has 25% and the other has 75%, they both get ONE delegate.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)Which has nothing to do with Clinton or this campaign. But it is kind of eye opening isn't it.
If they wanted to design a system that was truly and completely democratic it would not have mechanisms like this and definitely would not have "superdelegates" etc. But then we never really have had a fully "Democratic" system.
It will take more than 51 or 52% for Bernie to win nationally. We will have to end up with a large enough majority that all the various games and distortions will be too difficult to use politically.
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)I was only complaining because I favor Hillary.
No, I have hated caucuses ever since I went to my first one, back in the previous century. They are one of the circles of hell.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Though I definitely don't think it's worth the hassle, and I think this is an inauspicious start to the campaign season.
MADem
(135,425 posts)It disenfranchises shift workers, parents of young children, people without reliable transportation, those who live in bad neighborhoods and are afraid to be out after dark, people who can't drive at night...the list goes on.
If you work or go to school nine to five, no biggie. But if you have "a life" that is busy and complicated, you might not have time to give up an entire evening to play Musical Chairs.
TeamPooka
(24,223 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)But, as they said, "math is hard." I take them at their word that math is indeed hard for them.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)Just an engineering student.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)TeamPooka
(24,223 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)I specifically assume that they are independent. Your failure to understand the math reflects on your mathematics skills, not on reality. Everyone else in this thread recognizes that the mathematics is correct.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)These were individual events.
https://twitter.com/FernandoPeinado/status/694345745420320768
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Jarqui
(10,123 posts)then it likely Bernie got more votes
Lodestar
(2,388 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Lodestar
(2,388 posts)here.
MADem
(135,425 posts)that (even though this flip https://twitter.com/FernandoPeinado/status/694345745420320768 was apparently overseen by a Sanders supporter) Clinton supporters must have attended secret coin flipping classes to gain advantage!
Lodestar
(2,388 posts)so a trick coin toss seemed to fit right in. It certainly seems vulnerable to any number of
unintentional screw ups let alone for someone with less than honest intentions and slights
of hand that could easily take advantage of the chaos.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)Not saying that means anything nefarious happened. But it seems that coin tosses are not scientifically neutral if you know what to look for (the face that is up at the start is statistically more prone to win) or if you do the flipping.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Bernie's side asked for a recount, a quick determined to decide a recount by raising hands. Decision not to recount.
Strange how in Des Moines it looked it was going to Bernie. Then suddenly it changed after undecideds and MOM supporters apparently went to Hillary.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Luckily C SPAN caught it all on camera.
The Clinton precinct chair perjured herself on national TV. Classic!
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)supporters, to see if they would consider Hillary as a second choice. The article I read said Bernie's campaign didn't do this.
yodermon
(6,143 posts)Hard/impossible to do in a caucus scenario, i guess.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)he was lookin' for some votes to steal...
Hekate
(90,667 posts)Boy was he steamed. In our case we 4 sibs were dividing our late mother's possessions. Tossing dice settled any disputed items (D&D rules). Two times he and I threw exactly the same. On the third round I won the toss.
What are the everloving odds? I never play games of chance.
I don't know about the rest of the world, but America has a history of periodically settling political and other public disputes by coin toss. It's legal and has plenty of precedent.
Tonight, Luck was with the Lady.
Bernblu
(441 posts)If not, it means she won the caucus on coin flips!
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)They didn't amount to much. Even in this tight of a race.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Also, MSNBC is reporting that Sanders won some coin tosses, too.
MADem
(135,425 posts)the delegates awarded by coin toss, as others have pointed out.
Further, Sanders apparently won some coin tosses, too, per MSNBC.
That narrative, though, isn't as hot-breathed or pained as the one that has Clinton's surrogates, with magic quarters, inserting themselves into the coin toss process with nefarious intent...
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)It's even in all caps for the hard of seeing.
Superdelegates are very much up in the air right now. Don't try to pull establishment rank on the people -- we'll revolt.
MADem
(135,425 posts)I think you're looking for a fight, though, and I'm not interested.
Those coin flips were not about awarded delegates (that 29 number v. Sanders' 21) nor are they about superdelegates.
Not sure what the whole "establishment rank" comment is even about. I left that word behind in the sixties. It has limited meaning and utility.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)29-21 includes superdelegates which are not in any sense awarded at this point.
PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)They didn't amount to much. Even in this tight of a race.
MADem
(135,425 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)So quit cursing the statistic gods.
But you know what, maybe the statistic gods are angry with the Sanders' supporters for mocking the polls.
Regardless, thrilled we won each and every flip.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)So please do not berate me for part of the historical record.