Wow, the prediction markets are now giving Rubio 51% chance of winning the nomination!

[reformist2]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by In_The_Wind (a host of the 2016 Postmortem forum).

It's very early on for this betting market, but last night saw Rubio's chances soar:

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RCONV16.cfm

[Jarqui]

1. I've been picking him all along

I think they held him back to protect him

[reformist2]

3. I never gave him any thought, but suddenly it does all make sense.

I thought he was too green for the Repugs to get behind him. But he really is the only one that stands a chance in the general, isn't he?

[Jarqui]

7. He's been beating Hillary since November

and in the state by state, in late Nov-early Dec it was almost no contest - he handily beat her

Cruz is next best, then Trump

Currently he's +2.5 over Hillary in poll of polls, +1.0 over Sanders.

He's the only GOP candidate that is currently is ahead of Sanders. In the state by state, I think Sanders beat him but not by much

[Robbins]

10. If dem establishment gets their way and gop establishment does

say hello to president Rubio In 2017.

[Jarqui]

12. I won't bet against Dems but if I had to win that bet, that's who I'd put money on

if Bernie isn't in it.

[Puglover]

17. I agree.

And it makes me sick.

[Robbins]

4. still he has to win in some states

Is trump still wins NH we are looking at a trump VS cruz fight for GOP nomination.What happens In NH on gop side will be very
telling.

[Jarqui]

9. I doubt it. We've seen the presumptive leader change a few times in these contests

I think he's going to sit back for a bit longer. I think Trump will win NH.

[Robbins]

11. Usually GOP nominee wins eather iowa or NH

while Dole and W lost NH they won Iowa.

If trump holds In NH SC may help detmine things.Both dole and W recovered from NH there and Mccain winning there in 2008 after NH put him on road to nomination.

[Jarqui]

13. Things have changed. I don't think we can bank on traditional things happening nt

[Robbins]

15. well if clinton steals nomination

she may stole a tie in iowa and lose NH.so your point has merit.

[Jarqui]

18. By the looks of it, she's determined to buy the nomination with super delegates

If Bernie ties her in all the primaries, she's ahead 300+ delegates. That's daunting. It won't be as easy to pry them from her as it was for Obama because Bernie was an independent and his polices are further left.

[onehandle]

2. As I have been saying for a while.

Jeb is toast. Nobody else is viable.

[Prism]

5. The Establishment very much wants him

And now that Trump has been deflated, Rubio's the "moderate" alternative to a right-wing Cruz.

I honestly think he's Clinton's most dangerous opponent should she be the nominee.

[TeddyR]

6. I agree

Rubio is very conservative and the Republican base will ultimately rally around him unlike Romney. And he's not as loony as Cruz or Trump, so will attract more independents than either of those two. Rubio is a legitimate threat to beat either Dem candidate.

[randome]

8. Most people hate Trump and most in Congress hate Cruz so it will be Rubio.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]There is nothing you can't do if you put your mind to it.
Nothing.[/center][/font][hr]

[FSogol]

14. I can't wait for a GE debate where Rubio will look like a terrified deer-in-the-headlights

while he turns shiny with flop sweat and he starts making clicking noises with his mouth.

From one of my favorite DU threads ever:

It's (Marco Rubio is) like listening to a large clicking beetle.
He keeps clicking his tongue and smacking his lips.
Also sounds like he's whining and really nervous.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=2363167

[B Calm]

16. Regardless of occupation, they always take the laziest person and give them a supervisor job.

[LonePirate]

19. Super Tuesday looks super tough for Rubio.

Even if he consolidates support from Bush, Christie and Kasich, Rubio seems unlikely to win any state through Super Tuesday. Can his candidacy survive if he never wins while Cruz or Trump rack up victories?

Let's assume the field narrows to Cruz, Trump and Rubio after SC and NV. Carson's supporters probably flock to Trump with a few going to Cruz. The same is true for Paul's. Quitter Huckabee's supporters seem destined for Cruz. Fiorina's voters probably go to Cruz but some may go to Trump. Santorum's people probably go to Cruz as well. Gilmore has so few backers it doesn't matter.

Rubio might be able to claim a third of the vote; but that number is likely high. That leaves roughly 70% split between Cruz and Trump.

Rubio has to hope for a war between Cruz and Trump to the point that their supporters refuse to vote for the other guy and thus choose Rubio by default. If that doesn't happen, the victor between Cruz and Trump will pick up the vast majority of the other's supporters and will win every remaining state.

[In_The_Wind]

20. Locking

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Disruptive meta-discussion is forbidden.


[img][/img] Host have suggested reposting in GD.