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Sun Sep 30, 2012, 08:30 AM

Is the idea of vast Rep Super Pacs war chest a myth? Obama @ friends outspend Romney.

So what happened to all of those hundred million dollar Koch brother checks?


Was it all a myth, a bluff? If so it may have motivated Democrats to give more and given Republican fat cats reason to sit on their wallets. About a month ago I predicted that the official Romney campaign would face cash flow problems and a couple of weeks later media reports started reporting that the Romney campaign had borrowed $ 20 million]and was spending considerably less than the Obama campaign.

Now a careful look at media buys is showing a curious result.

Where are those huge Super Pac media purchases by right wing billionaires?

Last week total media buys for all campaign and super Pacs topped $55 million but of that the Obama campaign spent 40% of the total. The two largest Super Pacs involved in buying media last week? Number one was Omaha billionaire Ricketts who just started buying spots with more than $ 8 million and number two was the Obama Super Pac which spent $ 3.4 million.



http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/presidential-ad-spending-soars-past-700-million-20120928

President Obama, Mitt Romney, and outside groups spent more than $55 million on advertising running between Sept. 25 and Oct. 1, according to sources watching the advertising market. Obama's campaign alone spent $21 million during the last week, while Romney's campaign dropped $14 million on its own advertising.

All told, Obama's team has spent a total of $285 million on broadcast, cable, and radio advertising, while Romney's camp has spent $117 million. Add in outside spending and the total spent on the general election tops $724.6 million to date. With 39 days to go until Election Day, the 2012 campaign has already eclipsed the total amount spent in the 2008 cycle.

Ohio, Florida, and Virginia continue to be top targets for candidate advertising. The two sides are spending a combined $11.4 million reaching Buckeye State voters; $12.6 million in the Sunshine State; and $10.5 million in the Commonwealth this week alone. All three states have seen more than $114 million spent on advertising already.



So where are all of the tens of millions of the Koch brothers. Were they idle boasts? If so they may have crippled the Romney campaign because as I predicted (which was met with almost universal skepticism) the Romney campaign seems to have fallen way way behind the Obama campaign in media buys, in fact buying $ 170 million less.

If Romney has a less than great debate performance he could see his donor base quietly pack up their check books while the billionaires find other objectives for their political play money.

And then there is this;

When the Romney campaign ran short of money the borrowed against unused deposits of primary contributions.

They have already started paying that money back.

While other candidates will borrow to go into the hole it is generally understood that they don't have the resources to cover that debt and they have to spend time after the campaign to raise money to pay it off. With Romney's vast personal wealth he knows that once the election is over no one is going to donate one penny to him. He will have to write personal checks for every cent. My guess is that after the campaign is done the Romney campaign will have no debt.

So it may be that the original prediction of Romney's cash flow problems may have been under stated. It may be that not only will the official campaign have cash flow problems but that the Super Pac money will turn out to be tens of millions less than advertised.







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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 08:52 AM

1. They're pushing downticket fights.

Buy enough congressmen and senators and you can ruin everything just fine without having the presidency.

The only way they could have spent their money to help Romney get into the White House was to pay someone to gag him. Most of them figured out he was a loser and decided not to throw good money after bad.

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Response to JoeyT (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 09:18 AM

2. could be but I don't see any actual evidence of that. Don't see any news media reporting on unusual


ad buys or any of the official required reporting showing significant ad buys in large numbers.

Its not going to be a secret, the media markets keep close track of who is buying what ads.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 09:37 AM

3. I don't know where you live but they sure haven't run out of money in Ohio

neither one of them. They dominate every commercial spot on TV and radio. Santoram and Rep. Bill Johnson were here in a Romoney/Lyan
bus yesterday. They pushing the Obama war on coal and the gun thingy.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 09:41 AM

4. I did not read the part of the OP that said anyone was out of money...

 

because that was not the point he was making, and a good point it is too...

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 11:57 AM

10. No one said they are out of the money

This interactive site shows Obama dominating ad buying with $ 43 million

http://nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 09:49 AM

5. Or else like in the primaries they will go full force in the last weeks and over saturate the market

but by then you would think it would be too late?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 09:56 AM

6. All those thousands of tax free Republican 'charities' made a living off 'donations'

The years of birther campaigns alone probably cost them a billion.

Would have been cheaper for those couple hundred most wealthy to just pay their taxes.

The biggest loss is the states that didn't get any tax income from those sham political charities and the REAL charities suffered.

The nutter-Republicans wasted years of Americas Gov time and squandered our Federal funds. They won't be forgiven or ever forgotten. The 'States' are crazy to keep forking over state money to private for profit republicans.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 10:05 AM

7. Your point about "Leave no campaign debt behind" is a fascinating one.

That had completely escaped me but could be quite significant. Romney is all about making money, money is the primary marker in his life. He doesn't want to have to write millions of dollars in personal checks that will at that point buy him nothing of any use to him after he loses the election. In his mind none of his personal fortune is surplus. He might invest some of it to buy something he wants - like the Presidency, but paying off the debt of a loosing campaign is probably repugnant to him. I think the same holds for many of the "Republican Billionaires". They will spend to build toward something of value to them, but once they are merely throwing good money after bad it becomes almost painful for them.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #7)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 12:01 PM

11. I heard a rumor that Ann's only condition for running was that no (or only a nominal amount)


of personal money could be used.

Last time he spent a very large amount. Maybe she concluded that his spending would tag him with the "trying to buy the WH label".

What got me wondering about all of this is the interactive link showing Obama kicking the Romney's team ass in ad buys, even when you add the Super Pacs.

http://nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620

Perhaps the Koch brothers were bluffing, perhaps they weren't satisfied with candidate performance. I just dont see a hundred million dollars of their ad buys anywhere.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 10:23 AM

8. If the big fat cats opening their wallets for Romney think he really has no chance

they will most likely stop spending money on him and put it into the Governor, Senate and House races. I think it may already be happening.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 10:41 AM

9. I seriously worry about the long term affects.....

This cycle, with CU fresh in our minds, progressives and liberals are motivated. When the blush wears off the rose, in a few years, if that heinous decision is not reversed or compensated for somehow, it could matter greatly.

In 2008, I came up with the slogan: "The Election is Over, The Work Has Just Begun." I think that statement has never been more relevant.

If we lose this election cycle, the downward spiral into corporate fascism will accelerate. Winning would not be a permanent cure, but it would arrest the development of the far RW agenda for a while.

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