HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Historic Intrade breakthr...

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:11 AM

Historic Intrade breakthrough investors now pick Obama 2:1 over Romney (updated)

Last edited Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:18 PM - Edit history (1)


edited to add new numbers

Obama at 59.3 and Romney at 27.5% the collapse continues.


https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326


At 9:49 Obama was at 59.0 and Romney was at 29.3 establishing a 2:1 ratio on investors of Obama over Romney.

Prchasing Obama at 59.0 you stand to only make 41 cents on an Obama victory while a Romney victory would net your 71 cents.

But what makes it such a staggering number is that it can be traded on a daily basis and with all of the variables you have to think that at some point Romney would likely to have at least a 1 in 3 chance to win and you could sell it at that time. I am 100% convinced that the President is going to have a strong victory but if I was investing in these markets I would have to think that Romney at 29.3 would have to go up at some time. Even if he only got up to 40% that would be a 33% return on your investment, and yet people continue to sell off Romney stock.

The only possible way to read this is that the political investment class is considering an easy path to nomination no longer possible and he either will not be the nominee or mortally damaged as a candidate if he does get it.





6 replies, 1843 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply Historic Intrade breakthrough investors now pick Obama 2:1 over Romney (updated) (Original post)
grantcart Feb 2012 OP
Lil Missy Feb 2012 #1
DippyDem Feb 2012 #2
DCBob Feb 2012 #3
Marsala Feb 2012 #4
grantcart Feb 2012 #5
Johnny2X2X Feb 2012 #6

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:33 AM

1. I think it's going to be a landslide.

Good Gawd, the R party is a bunch of clowns. They finally went too far for even the idiots to tolerate.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 08:38 AM

2. Yes, it looks like a landslide coming but

we gotta also take back the house and get 60 in the senate!!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:05 AM

3. Im a bit surprised Santorum is so low... 7.5

You would think with the momentum he has had recently his numbers would be better than that.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DCBob (Reply #3)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:13 AM

4. Santorum is a joke. He's a fourth tier candidate.

He stands no chance of winning the general election barring some catastrophe. Santorum only has a shot at the nomination because every single other candidate is washing out.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:18 PM

5. kick for the update

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:43 PM

6. Nice

Last edited Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:15 PM - Edit history (1)

I follow Intrade every day. There's no politics involved in their odds making. Obama is a huge favorite to win right now.

The Democratic Base needs to be motivated, this could be an historic election in November. This could help shape our country for a generation. There is no reason why Democrats shouldn't vote in massive record numbers this fall.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread