2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHoly Crap. PPP tweets that Santorum now leads Romney in Michigan. Could be the end of Mitt.
In 2008 Romney took Michigan with 51% of the vote in a crowded early field of 7 candidates. It is the state he was born and raised in. His dad was a popular governor there. It fits Romney demographics as well as any remaining state.
I can't see how Romney continues if he gets trounced in Michigan. It would be a titatantic reversal of political fortune. Because it is one of his 'home' states its symbolic value is huge. A loss there would be a mortal blow to his candidacy.
PPP just tweeted that Santorum is ahead on their first night of polling.
PPP has been the most accurate pollster this year.
Here is their tweet
https://twitter.com/#%21/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944
Santorum topping Romney on the first night of our Michigan poll. This may be the biggest surge yet
Edited to add
If Ron Paul wins Maine tomorrow then Romney's campaign will be in a full fledged panic
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/02/10/ron-paul-has-shot-in-maine.html
Ron Paul Could Win Maine
Maine has been caucusing all week (who knew, right?) the results of which will be announced Saturday night. The turnout for Maine's caucuses are typically very low, making the results unpredictable and giving Ron Paul a real chance at his first primary win this year. Paul has been campaigning ferociously in Vacationland this week and plans to stay until the results are called. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will arrive in Portland on Friday night for his first campaign in the state this yearthough he did win the Maine caucuses in 2008.
It would be one of the greatest campaign collapses of all time.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.
Kennah
(14,115 posts)Because, and, if they, but only.
The physics of this confuse me.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,207 posts)negatives. This is a campaign that's coming apart at the seams. He'll still win in the end, but he'll be so weakened and humiliated, I don't think it'll take much to turn independents totally against him. If the polling is showing that the more people get to know of him, the more they dislike him, doesn't bode well for the GE.
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,207 posts)If I were going to cast the typical American president for a movie, Mitt might win the part. But it would definitely be a non-speaking role. He looks good until he opens his mouth.
mikekohr
(2,312 posts)Stick a fork in Willard. He's done.
LetTimmySmoke
(1,202 posts)David__77
(23,214 posts)Completely unlikable.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,216 posts)(Noting, I have never been at a level in a campaign to care about these details and how they factor in)
but the whole Romney thing in Michigan was 45 years or so ago. Who still living, still living there still cares enough that it would make a tinker's dam of a difference? Its like Michelle Bachmann and her "born in Iowa" schtick. Who cares, and even more, outside of Ames, where did that get her?
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)but change the lyrics to make it brown?
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)whistler162
(11,155 posts)Marsala
(2,090 posts)Imagine losing to Ron Paul in a primary where Paul gets over 50% in a major swing state because EVERYONE VOTED AGAINST ROMNEY.
It probably won't happen, but if it does...
corkhead
(6,119 posts)CanonRay
(14,036 posts)Kinda like the sound of that. He can go back to Wall Street and screw more people.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I cant find it.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)But nationally Romney is collapsing
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-surges-into-the-lead.html
Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Last edited Sat Feb 11, 2012, 07:56 PM - Edit history (1)
Edit to add: Nevermind. Found out that it's Feb. 28th.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)with a barrage of SuperPAC ads.
It won't last, but it would be FUCKING HILARIOUS.