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grantcart

(53,061 posts)
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:20 AM Feb 2012

Holy Crap. PPP tweets that Santorum now leads Romney in Michigan. Could be the end of Mitt.

In 2008 Romney took Michigan with 51% of the vote in a crowded early field of 7 candidates. It is the state he was born and raised in. His dad was a popular governor there. It fits Romney demographics as well as any remaining state.

I can't see how Romney continues if he gets trounced in Michigan. It would be a titatantic reversal of political fortune. Because it is one of his 'home' states its symbolic value is huge. A loss there would be a mortal blow to his candidacy.


PPP just tweeted that Santorum is ahead on their first night of polling.

PPP has been the most accurate pollster this year.

Here is their tweet

https://twitter.com/#%21/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944



Santorum topping Romney on the first night of our Michigan poll. This may be the biggest surge yet



Edited to add

If Ron Paul wins Maine tomorrow then Romney's campaign will be in a full fledged panic



http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/02/10/ron-paul-has-shot-in-maine.html


Ron Paul Could Win Maine

Maine has been caucusing all week (who knew, right?) the results of which will be announced Saturday night. The turnout for Maine's caucuses are typically very low, making the results unpredictable and giving Ron Paul a real chance at his first primary win this year. Paul has been campaigning ferociously in Vacationland this week and plans to stay until the results are called. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will arrive in Portland on Friday night for his first campaign in the state this year—though he did win the Maine caucuses in 2008.





It would be one of the greatest campaign collapses of all time.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.
18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Holy Crap. PPP tweets that Santorum now leads Romney in Michigan. Could be the end of Mitt. (Original Post) grantcart Feb 2012 OP
Santorum approaching Mitt from the rear Kennah Feb 2012 #1
Mitt's in a real pickle. His barrage of negative attack ads seem to have driven up his own.... Tarheel_Dem Feb 2012 #2
I'm beginning to think he won't win. This is a landslide and even money won't help. roguevalley Feb 2012 #6
You may be right. I think his "inevitability" was based on his huge warchest & his "look". Tarheel_Dem Feb 2012 #9
Independants have already flipped on the flip-flopper mikekohr Feb 2012 #14
His campaign staff are going to conclude that they have to do to Santorum what they did to Gingrich. LetTimmySmoke Feb 2012 #3
He's a real Meg Whitman. David__77 Feb 2012 #4
Thats the one thing I don't get about campaigns Ruby the Liberal Feb 2012 #5
Perhaps someone should re-do CCR's "Green River" Warren DeMontague Feb 2012 #7
if he gets trounced in Michigan - that will be a difficult psychological blow to over come Douglas Carpenter Feb 2012 #8
Why? It isn't like he was born there or that his father was anyone important! whistler162 Feb 2012 #18
You know what could really finish off Mitt? Virginia Marsala Feb 2012 #10
Michigan is an open primary corkhead Feb 2012 #11
"the end of Mitt" CanonRay Feb 2012 #12
Has PPP officially released anything on the Michigan polling? DCBob Feb 2012 #13
Nothing beyond the tweets grantcart Feb 2012 #15
When are the Michigan, Arizona contests? Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2012 #16
Romney's got three weeks to mercilessly destroy Santorum Arkana Feb 2012 #17

Kennah

(14,115 posts)
1. Santorum approaching Mitt from the rear
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:44 AM
Feb 2012

Because, and, if they, but only.

The physics of this confuse me.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,207 posts)
2. Mitt's in a real pickle. His barrage of negative attack ads seem to have driven up his own....
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:58 AM
Feb 2012

negatives. This is a campaign that's coming apart at the seams. He'll still win in the end, but he'll be so weakened and humiliated, I don't think it'll take much to turn independents totally against him. If the polling is showing that the more people get to know of him, the more they dislike him, doesn't bode well for the GE.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,207 posts)
9. You may be right. I think his "inevitability" was based on his huge warchest & his "look".
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:16 AM
Feb 2012

If I were going to cast the typical American president for a movie, Mitt might win the part. But it would definitely be a non-speaking role. He looks good until he opens his mouth.

Ruby the Liberal

(26,216 posts)
5. Thats the one thing I don't get about campaigns
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:16 AM
Feb 2012

(Noting, I have never been at a level in a campaign to care about these details and how they factor in)

but the whole Romney thing in Michigan was 45 years or so ago. Who still living, still living there still cares enough that it would make a tinker's dam of a difference? Its like Michelle Bachmann and her "born in Iowa" schtick. Who cares, and even more, outside of Ames, where did that get her?

Marsala

(2,090 posts)
10. You know what could really finish off Mitt? Virginia
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:16 AM
Feb 2012

Imagine losing to Ron Paul in a primary where Paul gets over 50% in a major swing state because EVERYONE VOTED AGAINST ROMNEY.

It probably won't happen, but if it does...

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
15. Nothing beyond the tweets
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 12:52 PM
Feb 2012
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/michigan/


But nationally Romney is collapsing

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-surges-into-the-lead.html

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.
 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
16. When are the Michigan, Arizona contests?
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 07:11 PM
Feb 2012

Last edited Sat Feb 11, 2012, 07:56 PM - Edit history (1)

Edit to add: Nevermind. Found out that it's Feb. 28th.

Arkana

(24,347 posts)
17. Romney's got three weeks to mercilessly destroy Santorum
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 08:02 PM
Feb 2012

with a barrage of SuperPAC ads.

It won't last, but it would be FUCKING HILARIOUS.

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