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Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:20 AM

Holy Crap. PPP tweets that Santorum now leads Romney in Michigan. Could be the end of Mitt.

In 2008 Romney took Michigan with 51% of the vote in a crowded early field of 7 candidates. It is the state he was born and raised in. His dad was a popular governor there. It fits Romney demographics as well as any remaining state.

I can't see how Romney continues if he gets trounced in Michigan. It would be a titatantic reversal of political fortune. Because it is one of his 'home' states its symbolic value is huge. A loss there would be a mortal blow to his candidacy.


PPP just tweeted that Santorum is ahead on their first night of polling.

PPP has been the most accurate pollster this year.

Here is their tweet

https://twitter.com/#%21/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944



Santorum topping Romney on the first night of our Michigan poll. This may be the biggest surge yet



Edited to add

If Ron Paul wins Maine tomorrow then Romney's campaign will be in a full fledged panic



http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/02/10/ron-paul-has-shot-in-maine.html


Ron Paul Could Win Maine

Maine has been caucusing all week (who knew, right?) the results of which will be announced Saturday night. The turnout for Maine's caucuses are typically very low, making the results unpredictable and giving Ron Paul a real chance at his first primary win this year. Paul has been campaigning ferociously in Vacationland this week and plans to stay until the results are called. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will arrive in Portland on Friday night for his first campaign in the state this year—though he did win the Maine caucuses in 2008.





It would be one of the greatest campaign collapses of all time.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

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Reply Holy Crap. PPP tweets that Santorum now leads Romney in Michigan. Could be the end of Mitt. (Original post)
grantcart Feb 2012 OP
Kennah Feb 2012 #1
Tarheel_Dem Feb 2012 #2
roguevalley Feb 2012 #6
Tarheel_Dem Feb 2012 #9
mikekohr Feb 2012 #14
LetTimmySmoke Feb 2012 #3
David__77 Feb 2012 #4
Ruby the Liberal Feb 2012 #5
Warren DeMontague Feb 2012 #7
Douglas Carpenter Feb 2012 #8
whistler162 Feb 2012 #18
Marsala Feb 2012 #10
corkhead Feb 2012 #11
CanonRay Feb 2012 #12
DCBob Feb 2012 #13
grantcart Feb 2012 #15
Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2012 #16
Arkana Feb 2012 #17

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:44 AM

1. Santorum approaching Mitt from the rear

Because, and, if they, but only.

The physics of this confuse me.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:58 AM

2. Mitt's in a real pickle. His barrage of negative attack ads seem to have driven up his own....

negatives. This is a campaign that's coming apart at the seams. He'll still win in the end, but he'll be so weakened and humiliated, I don't think it'll take much to turn independents totally against him. If the polling is showing that the more people get to know of him, the more they dislike him, doesn't bode well for the GE.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:41 AM

6. I'm beginning to think he won't win. This is a landslide and even money won't help.

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Response to roguevalley (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:16 AM

9. You may be right. I think his "inevitability" was based on his huge warchest & his "look".

If I were going to cast the typical American president for a movie, Mitt might win the part. But it would definitely be a non-speaking role. He looks good until he opens his mouth.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 10:50 AM

14. Independants have already flipped on the flip-flopper

Stick a fork in Willard. He's done.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:07 AM

3. His campaign staff are going to conclude that they have to do to Santorum what they did to Gingrich.

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:12 AM

4. He's a real Meg Whitman.

Completely unlikable.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:16 AM

5. Thats the one thing I don't get about campaigns

(Noting, I have never been at a level in a campaign to care about these details and how they factor in)

but the whole Romney thing in Michigan was 45 years or so ago. Who still living, still living there still cares enough that it would make a tinker's dam of a difference? Its like Michelle Bachmann and her "born in Iowa" schtick. Who cares, and even more, outside of Ames, where did that get her?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:03 AM

7. Perhaps someone should re-do CCR's "Green River"

but change the lyrics to make it brown?


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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:05 AM

8. if he gets trounced in Michigan - that will be a difficult psychological blow to over come

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Response to Douglas Carpenter (Reply #8)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 08:04 PM

18. Why? It isn't like he was born there or that his father was anyone important!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:16 AM

10. You know what could really finish off Mitt? Virginia

Imagine losing to Ron Paul in a primary where Paul gets over 50% in a major swing state because EVERYONE VOTED AGAINST ROMNEY.

It probably won't happen, but if it does...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:30 AM

11. Michigan is an open primary

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:34 AM

12. "the end of Mitt"

Kinda like the sound of that. He can go back to Wall Street and screw more people.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 10:07 AM

13. Has PPP officially released anything on the Michigan polling?

I cant find it.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #13)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 12:52 PM

15. Nothing beyond the tweets

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/michigan/


But nationally Romney is collapsing

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-surges-into-the-lead.html

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 07:11 PM

16. When are the Michigan, Arizona contests?

 

Last edited Sat Feb 11, 2012, 07:56 PM - Edit history (1)

Edit to add: Nevermind. Found out that it's Feb. 28th.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 08:02 PM

17. Romney's got three weeks to mercilessly destroy Santorum

with a barrage of SuperPAC ads.

It won't last, but it would be FUCKING HILARIOUS.

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