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Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:49 AM

More misery for Romney poll shows 3rd in Georgia, Paul might take Maine, Santorum leads MI


Man the damn is breaking on poor old Mitt;



Tomorrow Paul might win Maine. In 2008 Romney had 52% of the vote.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/289771/could-paul-win-maine-brian-bolduc



New poll shows Gingrich first, Santorum second and Romney a distant third in Georgia. He is only polling 16% in Georgia where he had 30% in 2008



http://savannahnow.com/latest-news/2012-02-10/poll-gingrich-santorum-lead-georgia#.TzWI4I45tNW

Gingrich leads in Georgia

ATLANTA - Former Georgia congressman Newt Gingrich is leading among primary voters in the state he represented for two decades, and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum is second in a poll released Friday.

Gingrich gets the nod from 35 percent while Santorum surged into second with 26 percent in the wake of his three primary wins this week in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

Mitt Romney has 16 percent, putting him in third place a head of Ron Paul’s 5 percent. Another 18 percent were undecided when surveyed by phone Thursday evening.





And as posted in a separate thread.


In 2008 Romney took Michigan with 51% of the vote in a crowded early field of 7 candidates. It is the state he was born and raised in. His dad was a popular governor there. It fits Romney demographics as well as any remaining state.

I can't see how Romney continues if he gets trounced in Michigan. It would be a titatantic reversal of political fortune. Because it is one of his 'home' states its symbolic value is huge. A loss there would be a mortal blow to his candidacy.


PPP just tweeted that Santorum is ahead on their first night of polling.

PPP has been the most accurate pollster this year.

Here is their tweet

https://twitter.com/#%21/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944



Santorum topping Romney on the first night of our Michigan poll. This may be the biggest surge yet



Edited to add

If Ron Paul wins Maine tomorrow then Romney's campaign will be in a full fledged panic



http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/02/10/ron-paul-has-shot-in-maine.html


Ron Paul Could Win Maine

Maine has been caucusing all week (who knew, right?) the results of which will be announced Saturday night. The turnout for Maine's caucuses are typically very low, making the results unpredictable and giving Ron Paul a real chance at his first primary win this year. Paul has been campaigning ferociously in Vacationland this week and plans to stay until the results are called. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will arrive in Portland on Friday night for his first campaign in the state this year—though he did win the Maine caucuses in 2008.





It would be one of the greatest campaign collapses of all time.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

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Reply More misery for Romney poll shows 3rd in Georgia, Paul might take Maine, Santorum leads MI (Original post)
grantcart Feb 2012 OP
Tarheel_Dem Feb 2012 #1
yortsed snacilbuper Feb 2012 #2
roguevalley Feb 2012 #3
grantcart Feb 2012 #5
davidpdx Feb 2012 #12
Ruby the Liberal Feb 2012 #4
Old and In the Way Feb 2012 #8
Ruby the Liberal Feb 2012 #10
Politicalboi Feb 2012 #6
Ian62 Feb 2012 #22
Ian62 Feb 2012 #25
dimbear Feb 2012 #7
Old and In the Way Feb 2012 #9
Ian62 Feb 2012 #23
grantcart Feb 2012 #26
thucythucy Feb 2012 #14
grantcart Feb 2012 #27
grantcart Feb 2012 #16
Ian62 Feb 2012 #24
grantcart Feb 2012 #28
Ian62 Feb 2012 #30
grantcart Feb 2012 #29
Ian62 Feb 2012 #17
DCBob Feb 2012 #11
Ian62 Feb 2012 #21
izquierdista Feb 2012 #13
Johnny2X2X Feb 2012 #15
grantcart Feb 2012 #18
Ian62 Feb 2012 #19
Ian62 Feb 2012 #20

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:02 AM

1. For any other "inevitable frontrunner" this would be hugely embarrassing. But Mitt seemingly.....

has no shame, considering he's taken every position on every possible issue, and doesn't know how to be embarrassed.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:03 AM

2. It's good news for America!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:08 AM

3. rachel explained that Paul probably leads in delegates because they are chosen after the caucuses

and most of the others had gone home by then. They are probably leading everyone right now. Story to watch I think.

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Response to roguevalley (Reply #3)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:15 AM

5. remember when Obama went to Idaho?


Everybody thought he was nuts.

His campaign had studied the rules and a big win in a small state gave him all of the delegates 17, while a small victory in a big state like Ohio only gave the winner a couple delegate advantage.

Paul's people have studied the rules like Obama's people did.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:10 AM

12. Well you know what they say

Imitation is the best form of flattery. Obama's team wrote a new playbook.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:12 AM

4. This is the first I have heard that Ron Paul might win Maine.

Did you see Rachel tonight on his delegates?

Someone's (collective) campaigns aren't paying attention...

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #4)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:54 AM

8. As a Mainiac in the rural 2nd district...it doesn't surprise me one bit.

The Republican conservatives up here far more identify with Ron's message than any of the other 3. I did think that Mitt was going to win up here, but the 1% label has pretty much done him in...they just can't identify with Mitt. They can relate to Ron's simplistic messages and his anti-establishment packaging. They eat up the "small government, legalize pot, and stop the wars" message. I think a lot of the Greens up here - we have a pretty sizable chunk...are probably in with Ron as well.

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Response to Old and In the Way (Reply #8)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 05:15 AM

10. What time can we expect actual results?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:19 AM

6. The Revenge of Semus

 

May Santorum run all over Mittens.

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Response to Politicalboi (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:32 PM

22. Plenty of evidence that Romney has psychological problems

 

Tie those togather and do an ad on that

dogonroof - no sane person person would put a dog on the roof - that's for the luggage

A reporter asks him a tuff q and he loses it


Tax returns was a good one. That was so stupid to not volunteer them. He had to retract the next day. A childish mistake.

If he makes that sort of childish mistake and loses it that easily, what wud he be like in a crisis as Pres?
He has never had to deal with a real crisis. He has always had a privileged life. He has never had to deal with the sort of problems ordinary guys like you and me have to deal with. He is out of touch with ordinary American's - never lived that sort of life.

Running the USA is not like running a company. Use stuph written by GOP's e.g.
http://www.romneyexposed.com/2011/06/20/an-open-letter-about-mitt-romney-from-conservatives/

Claimed to have created 100,000 jobs at Bain. Became 10,000 or less within 6 days. Shows poor judgement (as do all of the above).

Do u really want the 47th best Gov as Pres? Or wud u rather pick someone else.

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Response to Ian62 (Reply #22)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:41 PM

25. Run the misogynist angle as well

 

Plenty of stories about Mittens mentally torturing women in his time as Mormon leader. E.G.
You will give up your child for adoption or you will be excommunicated from the Mormon church.
You may have a 50% chance of dying, but you cannot have an abortion.

Ann Romney sounds like a Stepford wife.

Digging for info around these 2 could prove fruitful.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:52 AM

7. Romney has an implacable enemy. David Letterman.

Between Dave and Seamus, Mitt could be taking a fall.

It's embarassing me, I thought the nomination was bought and paid for.

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Response to dimbear (Reply #7)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 05:00 AM

9. There's been a lot of serious money invested in Mitt's campaign.

The kind of money that expects an investment return. These guys want to run government like a business. A Bain Capital type of business. It's sure looking like their investment is going to be a write off loss.

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Response to Old and In the Way (Reply #9)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:33 PM

23. Think Bain want to be the Halliburton of a Romney regime nm

 

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Response to Old and In the Way (Reply #9)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:58 PM

26. Not only that


But he tapped the same people for the maximum.

He can't go back to them except to pay into the PAC.

His percent of donors who have maxed out is very high.

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Response to dimbear (Reply #7)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 11:11 AM

14. The story about Seamus

seems really to have stuck in Letterman's craw. For me the best part of the monologue last night was when Dave told the audience that someone who "glitter-bombed" Romney has been sentenced to six months, while Mitt gets off scot free for abusing his poor animal.

"Every time I do 'stupid pet tricks' the PETA people are all over me. Where are they on this?!" or words to that effect.

I think Letterman had an impact in 2008 when he publicly called McCain a liar for ditching his show. McCain said he had fly down to Washington to attend to important Senate business, when in fact he was a couple of blocks away shooting a TV ad. Dave featured that story night after night after night. It wasn't McCain canceling that bothered Dave, it was the lie about "important Senate business." The bits were funny as hell, but I think the incident also made people who were watching wonder about McCain/Palin.

Best Dave moment ever: the night after Palin quit as Alaska governor: "Was it something I said?"

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Response to dimbear (Reply #7)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:02 PM

16. The dogs are starting to organize

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Response to grantcart (Reply #16)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:36 PM

24. HaHa - that's the sort of stuph that shud be used.

 

Anyone contacted kennel clubs, dog lover organisations? They could be a useful demographic.

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Response to Ian62 (Reply #24)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:00 PM

28. Its a movement

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Response to grantcart (Reply #28)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:48 PM

30. LSMINSMP nm

 

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Response to Ian62 (Reply #24)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:01 PM

29. Its a movement

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Response to dimbear (Reply #7)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:07 PM

17. GOP elite thought so too :) nm

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 08:17 AM

11. Even if Paul wins Maine that doesnt really help Santorum in Michigan.

In fact it could hurt him. Some Santorum voters could switch to Paul. I doubt any Romney types would do the same.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #11)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:09 PM

21. Spend a bit of cash

 

So why doesn't O spend a bit of cash on attack ads against Mittens in Michigan? Frothy hasn't got much cash. O can wait for Maine result and see what that does. Then got 2 weeks to run ads in Michigan. Cud get peeps out as well. There r a lot of Dem's in Michigan. Gotta campaign on stuph other GOP wouldn't like tho. Not what Dem's might like.

Stuph like this.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/07/29/Massachusetts_economic_performance_during_Romneys_term_as_governor/

4th worst out of 50 for job creation
4th worst out of 50 for cost of doing business.
At least he has got 1 consistent msg.

65% disapproval rating at end of term.

Wondering why he didn't run for re-election?
He would have been slaughtered.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:45 AM

13. Every tire on the clown car is going in a different direction

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 12:57 PM

15. I don't get it

Romney supposedly has this huge cash advantage, so why would he ignore a state like Maine? This could be an utter embarrassment for him if Ron Paul waxes him now and the delegates do matter eventually. Every delegate that goes to someone else is 1 more delegate short of the 50% that Romney will need to avoid a brokered convention.

Romney cannot afford to be ignoring a state like Maine. As big as Romney's stash of campaign cash is, if this goes all the way to the convention he'll likely spend a couple $Hundred Million just getting the nomination, that's a couple hundred million less he'll have to spend in the general election. Just a week or more ago Romney had started focusing on Obama, those days are gone now.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #15)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:15 PM

18. He didn't ignore it


But in a caucus state money only has so much advantage.

You can't really advertise, or if you do you are wasting most of it.

You have to get people to go out and spend a lot of time.

In Minnesota there were caucuses where Romney had zero votes.

However if you have a campaign like Paul's that are really bottom up its and ideal situation for them and Paul has been putting a lot of resources into supporting the ground game.

Look for the media to be surprised even if Romney manages to hold on.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #15)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:45 PM

19. There is no way that GOP don't go to a brokered convention now

 

Obama should step up a gear on some of the anti Mitt stuph, to get GOP as divided as possible.
And to keep the GOP in fighting going.

Mittens still got the most cash by far.
Got Fox in his pocket.
Got GOP elite in his pocket.

If Mittens does poorly, others will get more donors.
More donors to others mean more attack ads on each other.

More donors to others means Mittens has to spend more cash on fighting other GOP.
War chest lower for fight with O.
Bankers bonuses have been significantly reduced.
They r moaning about lack of cash. Poor souls. My heart bleeds - not.
They r not bottomless pits.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #15)

Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:48 PM

20. Cash

 

Lets face it O can afford to spend a few milllion spread over a few states where Romney is in a tight race with one of the others. Spend $5 or $10m now. Save $50m or more later. And about $10m less for Mittens.

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