2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie proves he is more electable with shocking new poll numbers.
If Team Clinton wants to pretend like Clinton is more electable than Bernie, they could start by showing something other than the exact opposite in the polls.
Source: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us02052016_Ust53w.pdf
General election matchups among American voters show:
Clinton tops Trump 46 41 percent, Sanders thumps Trump 49 39 percent
Clinton ties Cruz 45 45 percent, Sanders edges Cruz 46 42 percent
Clinton trails Rubio 48 41 percent, Sanders and Rubio are tied 43 43 percent
So as of now, if the Democratic Party wants to beat the three stooges leading the GOP, they would be wise to nominate Bernie. You simply can't argue otherwise.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)The GE polls dont matter at this point. They start mattering in the June-August timeframe when the two nominees or presumptive nominees start trying to define each other.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)closeupready
(29,503 posts)Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)kath
(10,565 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
INdemo
(6,994 posts)Gore1FL
(21,165 posts)Jarqui
(10,131 posts)Independents hate Hillary. Have for years. Republicans hate her more than Sanders as well.
She's so well known, that's really hard for her to turn around.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Sanders brings a lot of fresh blood into the party, in the form of millenials who are disgusted with the current status of both parties, and are Independants or had given up on the political process. They know the system is rigged against them, they live and breathe it every day. Sanders is their voice, Hillary is not. They view her as part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I was sitting in the drive-thru at Dunkin waiting on my morning coffee when I heard Bill Press announce this.
I was so happy, I cheered and teared up. I'm sure people were wondered what I was doing in my car.
I probably didn't need the coffee after that, but I still love Dunkin's coffee (but I like Krispy Kreme's donuts better).
greiner3
(5,214 posts)Some years ago I was headhunter to manage one. Due to circumstaces I turned it down. But hell, I'd weigh 400 lbs now. It's a toss up which is/was the right choice
WillyT
(72,631 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)dsc
(52,172 posts)The MOE is way, way more than the difference in these polls.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)some of us have been down this road 4-5 times. Republicans are holding their fire on Bernie because he's hurting Clinton. Clinton can't do it because she is gonna need support from Bernie's voters. Its a mirage.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)thucythucy
(8,121 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)thucythucy
(8,121 posts)It's just that your comment was so cryptic I couldn't tell what it was you were trying to say.
I'd qualify it by saying there are still pockets, large pockets, in this country where cold war slogans (generally anti-left, anti-union, anti "big government"--not to mention racist, sexist, homophobic, and anti-Semitic themes) still prevail. But neither Bernie nor Hillary are ever going to win over those folks anyway, so it makes no sense to tailor any sort of message or policy for them, since this would only hurt us among independents who remain to be swayed. Not to mention that any policy such people support is bound to be bat-shit crazy.
In part too, it depends on current events. If the US is hit again in a major attack like 9-11, carried out by foreigners, the whole "who's strongest against terror" question will re-emerge with a vengeance. This is the closest thing we have now to the "who lost China" nonsense of the 1950s, which was exploited so well by Republicans (and which ended up with the Democratic Party taking a sharp swerve to the right. People forget how conservative JFK was viewed by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party).
Hopefully Senator Sanders, who's run a pretty brilliant campaign thus far, would be able to counter such attacks at least as well as Secretary Clinton. That's my hope, anyway.
Best wishes.
But that doesn't stop Her from trying.....and that is the problem
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Last edited Fri Feb 5, 2016, 01:13 PM - Edit history (1)
"He's been down that road 4 or 5 times now ..."
An obvious reference to the previous attempts by "Liberal" candidates to win the presidency ...
They were largely unsuccessful ... Yet, that has no bearing whatsoever on how a Bernie campaign would proceed ...
It's a different era, with different problems, so analogies to past efforts have no bearing on what we might expect THIS time around ...
Bernie is not McGovern ... He is not Hubert Humphrey ... He is not Dukakis or Mondale ...
It's a new era ... A new moment in American history .. the people are tired of the nonsense ... Same ole same ole isn't going to cut it ...
Vote for Optimism and Hope ... Vote for Bernie 2016 ...
thucythucy
(8,121 posts)See my post above.
"Socialism" as a swear word is certainly losing its sting. Those for whom it's still a big issue were never going to vote for either of our candidates anyway.
The McGovern campaign was my first political experience (I worked as a volunteer, ended up at the national convention in Miami Beach). I DO see similarities between Senator McGovern and Senator Sanders, but not in the way most people would think. McGovern was a decent forthright man who would have made a great president, certainly far better than Tricky Dick. And people forget that, coming out of the national conventions, the polls had Nixon and McGovern running neck and neck. McGovern's biggest mistake by far was trying to placate what was then the Democratic Party establishment by picking Eagleton as his running mate. A disaster of epic proportions. The lesson to me was: don't be so eager to compromise your principles.
Best wishes.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)Howard Dean was the early frontrunner due to his anti-war stance and was polling ahead of Bush, then lost Iowa and the media jumped on him over the post loss "Dean Scream" and his numbers tanked and it was over for him. Then, John Kerry was ahead of Bush until August of 2004, then got Swiftboated and never recovered, losing in a nailbiter.
When Sanders gets hit with the 2016 version of Willie Horton or the Swiftboaters, he won't even be allowed to respond in the media. And, he'll go the way of previous New England standard bearers like Dukakis, Dean and Kerry.
Somebody on DU published all the responses Kerry made in 2004 to the Swift Boaters, but none of them got enough air time to matter. The same will happen to Sanders when they misquote him or take him out of context - he'll respond, his surrogates will respond, Rachel Maddow and others will respond, but it won't make it onto the regularly nightly news, the newspapers or the sunday morning talk shows.
thucythucy
(8,121 posts)What we have to hope is that whoever gets the nod will be politically savvy enough to counter what's bound to be a GOP shit fest of epic proportions.
President Obama was able to do it, as was President (Bill) Clinton.
My feeling is that Democrats are almost always the underdogs, certainly on the national level. Certain blue states are the exception, but by and large the system is always rigged against progressives.
Best wishes.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)I'm not a big fan of Hillary, but all of her issues have been out in the public for 25 or so years now - she's been through the wringer and is still leading or tied with the leading Republicans. What are they going to do - bring up Benghazi, Monica Lewinsky, Vince Foster or emails again and again? There's really not much more that's going to move the lever against her.
My concern with Bernie is that will he be able to withstand the kind of withering assault he'll get with $1 billion to $2 billion of deceptive attack ads? I'm not sure his operation is the well oiled machine that Obama had in place in both 2008 and 2012.
thucythucy
(8,121 posts)Honestly, in terms of this particular issue, I really don't know. On the one hand Senator Clinton has all these negatives, but as you say, it's all been hashed out endlessly, and unless there's something else we've yet to hear (always a possibility) at least we'll know the general gist of the attacks the GOP will mount.
Bernie, on the other hand, seems at this point rather squeaky clean, but as has been pointed out, he hasn't received nearly the kind of intense scrutiny that Hillary has.
To some degree it hardly matters, in the sense that whoever the candidate is, the Republicans will attack attack attack. I thought John Kerry's record in Vietnam was unassailable, I had no idea "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" would have such an impact (and obviously neither did he).
I think Rubio right now is the candidate on the other side who worries me the most. Like the others, his agenda is horrific, his personal ethics highly questionable. But the media dubs him "serious" and "personable"--a replay of the "who would you want to have a beer with" nonsense that helped Bush II steal the day.
Whoever our candidate is, I'll support him or her to the best of my means and ability. That's the only thing I know for absolute sure right now.
Best wishes, and hang in there!
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,125 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Everything from birth to now will be under the microscope. Hillary has nothing left that isn't known.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Maybe he is the most moral human being. That would be nice.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)Do you think Karl Rove or the Koch Brothers super pac are going to care if he's clean? they'll just take his words out of context and twist them around to fit their message. It works all the time.
2pooped2pop
(5,420 posts)doc03
(35,442 posts)ran an ad in Iowa calling him a socialist to draw votes away from Hillary, the old reverse psychology trick. Funny how history repeats itself, we went through the same program with Obama. Obama got the far left and youth vote then when he didn't get 100% of what he
promised they turned their back on him and we lost the House and are just hanging onto the Senate by a thread. Bernie Sanders has zero percent chance of getting anything he is promising enacted. Wait till the Karl Marx ads and Sanders face with the hammer and sickle ads come out.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)Doesn't seem to bother Bernie, in fact he does so well I suspect he is planting the questions.
frylock
(34,825 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)I don't "remember" 1972 either, but I have educated myself on the subject.
But I remember 1984 vividly as the last time a Democratic nominee proposed middle class tax increases. And Mondale didn't have the whole Socialism thing with which to contend.
As you said, some of us have been down this road. We know why things look as they do now and what it would become. Sanders current numbers vs Republicans is a mirage as you so eloquently put it.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Didn't work. Only the dumbest of republicans are going to believe Sanders is a Communist, and they're not voting for ANY Democrat.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Not That Marx was a bad guy, anyway.
SamKnause
(13,114 posts)FEEL THE BERN
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,125 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
FrostyAusty
(57 posts)Rock on!!
thucythucy
(8,121 posts)I'm hoping both the Sanders campaign, and more and more elected Democrats, are now planning the pivot from the primary into the general. The GOP is going to be brutal, no matter who the Democratic nominee is, and we have to be prepared.
That said, this is better news than I expected at this point.
amborin
(16,631 posts)speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)this poll holds up with subsequent ones, it will shock the establishment.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)He's going to win NH by wide margins. The spin on the inter tubes will be that this was expected, ho hum.
However, the impending states that are voting combined with the general electorate will see that Sanders went from nothing to a tie in Iowa and a win in NH.
Clinton will no longer have her "inevitability" or "most electable" memes to fall back on. Those two memes were the psychological backbone of her entire campaign.
That's all we heard in Iowa. For months!
Without her magical memes, I say that her support continues to erode; and more flock to Bernie in droves.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Every minute, of every day...Americans are learning about Bernie and his common sense, MAINSTREAM message. He's consistent, honest and authentic.
We need him to lead us through a complete change in this country.
kenn3d
(486 posts)Historically, the national polls have not been very meaningful this far out from the GE. Although the relative comparisons in successive surveys by the same pollster may offer insights to the broader trends.
This Quinnipiac poll is either a BIG outlier, or may be pointing to a dramatic trend change that's just beginning to emerge.
Prior Qpoll: Clinton 61 / Sanders 30 (Clinton +31)
New Qpoll: Clinton 44 / Sanders 42 (Clinton +2)
This is a 29pt swing from the same pollster using the same sample size and methodology over a 6 week period.
This is indeed shocking imo.
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)Favorability among black people:
Hillary: 73 favorable
20 unfavorable
5 haven't heard enough
Bernie: 55 favorable
14 unfavorable
31 haven't heard enough
Folks, this shows that Bernie has a chance to be accepted by the black community, because 31% haven't heard enough. I think that means 31% of black people still keep an open mind about him.
Currently, the % unfavorable is lower for Bernie than Hillary. Bernie can win the black vote if he is able to introduce himself to the black community properly and show them that he cares about black lives in ways other than just economic. Yesterday at the debate he showed that he understands that things in Flint would have been different had Flint been a white community. I think he needs to continue in this direction and if he is able to express his beliefs, he will win the black vote and he will be the next POTUS.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts).. is it just D's and R's or are Independents (that make up 44% of the electorate) also included
in the people polled.
They clearly only polled registered voters, because some questions say "among D's, or among R's".
but I don't see anything that tells me if Indies were also polled, so I'm assuming they weren't.
Response to anti partisan (Original post)
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orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)Without identifying the Experts or the plan !!!!