Let THIS Headline Sink In... 'Poll: Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Are Tied Nationally - CBSNews

[WillyT]

Poll: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are tied nationally
Rebecca Shabad - CBS News
February 5, 2016, 10:40 AM

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are now virtually tied nationally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Friday.

The poll, which was conducted in the two days after Monday's Iowa caucuses, found that 44 percent of Democratic voters support Clinton and 42 percent said they back Vermont's independent senator. Eleven percent said they are undecided.

In the last poll conducted in late December, Clinton was leading against Sanders 61 percent to 30 percent.

Link: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-and-bernie-sanders-are-tied-nationally/

[jillan]

1. While still in bed this morning, turned on the tv and was greeted by this headline.

What a way to start my day!!

[HassleCat]

2. Clinton still ahead by 2 points

So they're not tied. Sanders is still making progress, though. Iowa definitely helped him, and his debate performance gave him a little boost. Things are definitely looking better every day.

[kath]

7. Do you not grasp the concepts of margin-of-error and "statistical tie"?

[HassleCat]

34. Yes, I do

There is really no such thing as a statistical tie. A poll is an estimate, and a 52-48 result could be 57-43 or 47-53. Either way, the same candidate is ahead, because you have to look at the range of possibilities, and how those possibilities are distributed within that range. That means Clinton is ahead in this particular poll because it indicates she is more likely to win. Of course, all the polls showed Clinton with a comfortable lead in Iowa, so there is a definite possibility the polls are not accurate, in spite of being able to cite a specific margin of error. That's what I think, and I believe Sanders will defeat Clinton.

[PoliticAverse]

52. Friends don't let friends use the phrase "statistical tie"...

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/one-last-encore-great-statistical-tie-fallacy

[reformist2]

11. By the same token, Bernie outperforms Hillary against Trump, Rubio & Cruz by 5 points.

Except those numbers are outside the margin of error!

[CentralMass]

17. Withn the margin of error.

[sabrina 1]

33. Clinton down by double digiits since Bernie was seen on the NATIONAL STAGE. Wait 'till after

NH. All he ever needed was for the people to get to know him.

[AzDar]

39. ^ This.

[Plucketeer]

62. Indeed!!! And they're responding

I had worried for years that the citizenry at large couldn't tell the difference between a politician and a public servant. Looks like I need not worry any more. They CAN differentiate between the two.

[sabrina 1]

63. I wondered about that also. but yes, OWS was the first sign that the citizenry were aware

of the difference which is why they so brutally tried to crush it. But the citizzenry had no National Voice to get behind, until now. THAT is why, imo, Bernie ran for the WH. In fact he said so. All his work in the Senate could not overcome the Corporate controlled Congress so he decided to get on the National stage himself and give the people a voice.

I will be forever grateful to him for making that sacrifice for US. Because I really do not think he wanted to do this.

[Plucketeer]

71. 100% agree

And also your view of OWS and it's failing. I've wondered more than once, what MIGHT HAVE developed if that event had nominated some one soul to speak their collective minds. Would it have incited our own "Wall Street Spring"? We'll never know. I only hope that WHEN president Sanders takes office, the snowball just keeps rolling and rolling and.....

[rhett o rick]

109. You always seem to nail it. I don't even have to write anything, I just need to follow you

around (not in a creepy way) and say "I agree with sabrina".

Esp this: "I will be forever grateful to him for making that sacrifice for US. Because I really do not think he wanted to do this." I wish I still had his speech he gave when he was making up his mind. He acknowledged that it would be a great risk to him personally and his family to run for president. That hit me hard. We were asking him to put himself and his family at risk for us. I feel we owe him huge for that.

[tex-wyo-dem]

121. I couldn't agree more with you and Sabrina more…

We owe Bernie a huge amount of gratitude! I don't think that he wanted to run at first, but when Warren did not run I think he felt he had to.

He said his greatest fear was running for president and that no one would respond to his ideas and message. Well that's been disproven in a most dramatic way

On a less positive note, I do fear her his and his family's safety. He is taking on some seriously powerful figures in this world, and they are not going to give up power quietly.

[tex-wyo-dem]

120. +1000! Nt

[senz]

128. You are right about Bernie's motivation and impact, Sabrina

one could hear his reluctance/ambivalence as he approached the idea on the TH show. I think the massiveness of the public response surprised even him. At some point, he must have realized his time had truly come.

I do worry that people are not ready to carry on if, for whatever reason, he can't/doesn't continue. Certainly awareness is up but we don't quite have a movement yet. But it's closer than it's been since the 60s/70s.

[senz]

125. "The difference between a politician and a public servant." HUGE difference.

[pangaia]

126. That has always been the way I have seen Bernie.

He is a public servant whose trade, or means to serve, is through politics.

And he is very, very good at his craft. He is like the difference between Miles and Kenny G.

[senz]

130. Yes, he chose public service as the best available means to live out his ideals.

His dogged persistence despite years being ignored, dismissed, and belittled by many in the Congress and Senate speaks to his complete loyalty and faith in basic principles.

Bernie is very good at what he does, knowledgeable and professional without being the least bit full of himself.

I've heard of Kenny G but can't quite recall any of his music at present, however my first jazz album was Kind of Blue, and although I've acquired several more Miles' albums, riffs from pieces in KoB still go through my mind at odd moments. It was a classic.

[pangaia]

131. Kenny G is a schlock soprano sax player.

My reference came from this post I made a few days ago in reply to Dorkzilla about jazz. etc.. The actual quote is from a FB friend of mine..

I stole that Kenny G idea from a FB friend. I don't want to link to his wall but Under photos of Bernie and Hillary there were 2 quotes..

"Jazz is an underappreciated art form. Now you can quote me on this, and I hope I'm wrong, but there will never be another era like there was with Miles Davis, John Coltrane, Charles Mingus, and the great Duke Ellington."


"I love it. I really do. It's not Christmas until I put on Kenny G's Christmas album."

I grew up the '50s and '60s in North Jersey listening to Miles, Coltrane, Monk, Dizzy, Basie, Getz, and on and on. I was never a great jazz musician, more classical, but good enough to have played with Gary Burton, Lew Soloff, Dick Halligan, Dick Lowenthal and a few others...


And you know what is funny,.. DORKZILLA was talking about Miles and her boyfriend the jazzer AND Kinda Blue!!
Am I freaking out here??

[senz]

133. lol, great Bernista minds think alike.

Glad to know I haven't missed anything w/Kenny G.

My jazz-loving friend introduced me to Miles, Mingus, Monk, Coltrane, Sonny Rollins, Dizzy, and others, a wonderful education punctuated with performances by Miles, Mingus, Coltrane, Sonny (all in SF), Monk (at UCLA) and Dizzy (at a venue on the beach called The Lighthouse.) I had no idea how much this guy was giving me at the time. That entire era, including the writers and poets, was amazingly intense and intelligent, high artistic integrity.

You're fortunate to be a musician, pangaia; I don't have any ability but have always admired it in others. It's one that has always seemed "a gift of the gods." What instrument(s) do you play?

[pangaia]

150. Man, your story is almost a dupe of Dorkzilla, :>))

I feel I was so lucky to be born when I was, 1943.. and growing up in the '50s '60s. Only looking back do I realize what a special time it was. the good, the beautiful, the difficult and the sad...

Vietnam, '68 Demo convention
I went to JFK's funeral. I was in Memphis when MLK was assassinated...

I worked a bit at STAX. Played for Issac Stern, Pablo Casals... etc etc,,
I heard/saw the originals when they came out of-- Sgt Pepper, Surrealistic Pillow, Easy Rider, etc etc... After seeing Easy Rider I went to a "DRIVE IN." YUP ! A triple feature. Three biker flicks.. ready for this? One with Peter Fonda, one with Jack Nicholson and one with Dennis Hopper !!!
I still have my 'stereo system' from the '70s... Thorens, Marantz, McIntosh and Klipschorns.. and my first tape recorder...an old Wollensack. :&gt ))

I am a percussionist/timpanist. or was-- "retired."

A third of the kids in my HS Band studied with players in the NY Phil. A couple violinist in the orchestra even studied with Ruggerio Ricci. His ex-, Ruth Ricci, was the string teacher! Little did I know.

jeeze, that was long.

[senz]

165. Well that's an honor. :)

Pretty sure she's quite a bit younger than me, but we have a few things in common, and she's a fave.

I'm in your generation, pangaia, also retired, but my career wasn't nearly as exciting as yours. You've had the honor of working with some very big names in what were undoubtedly exciting performances. It must have been a wonderful experience. Speaking as a non-musician, percussion has always looked like the most fun because who, as a kid, didn't love to bang on things, lol. It's so natural. When watching classical performances that give only a few scattered minutes to the percussionist, I always wonder what the percussionist is thinking during all the non-percussive parts of the performance. The percussive sound always grabs everyone's attention, probably wakes up those who were snoozing. The best, most extended percussive performances I've heard have been in contemporary classical music - a huge pleasure. Your NY HS band sounds truly exceptional.

I heard the originals when they came out, too, and used to adore Drive Ins. Saw Easy Rider with the man whom I eventually married and what impressed me most was the performance of the actor who played the southern lawyer. Kept saying, that guy has a great future in acting!

The record player part of my old stereo system has long been, along with some very worthy vinyl, in non-air conditioned storage, so the vinyl is probably ruined.

Thanks for sharing some of your interesting experiences, pangaia!

[pangaia]

170. I found it.. shots of the percussionists...

You are right TV directors have zero clue about camera shots. The percussionists might be the only people moving and they show, for the 49th time, a shot of the trumpets. Of course I am partisan.

Same thing happens in baseball.. all those super-duper close ups of the pitcher's nose hair, the batter blinking,. on line drives they follow the ball instead of the players... blechk

Well, here is one performance where the camera work is a little better than usual.. especially toward the end. Mahler 1st Sym., last Mvt,.. Dudamel and the L.A. Phil in Walt Disney Hall..

What do we do when not playing? Well depends... on the percussionist, the circumstances, rehearsal or performance. etc... in rehearsal it could be anything from going out for a beer, hanging backstage, sitting there preparing, or, me- sitting there and studying the score. ( Almost nobody does that.)

In concerts, one has to stay 'in the music.' or SHOULD..


In the better orchestras, the timpanist is often the 2nd, 3rd or 4th highest paid player, after the concert master and principal horn, sometimes the principal trumpet.The job is a lot harder and more important than it might look. :&gt )

[senz]

171. Thank you so much for the video. I was referring to live performances

but the video you found shows everything close up, a real treat. Exciting performance; my ex father-in-law was a huge Mahler fan. I'm not very knowledgeable but was naturally attracted to Baroque and New Music and also enjoy early music, mainly Renaissance. Have never been a big fan of the romantics except, of course, Beethoven.

Watching the video raises all kinds of curiosity questions, like, what happens if an excited violinist elbows (or worse, bows) the person next to them? What if you need to scratch your nose? Do musicians feel competitive with one another or is it mainly a joy to be working in concert? Do musicians react to how well or badly the other musicians are playing? Do musicians ever dislike the conductor? Do they have to watch the conductor even after many rehearsals? And something else I've long wondered: does the concert master act superior to other musicians?

Just wondering what it's like. You certainly don't have to answer if you don't feel like it.

Your approach of staying put and staying with the music probably made your performances better. It must have been really nice playing with an orchestra.

Did you know that there are at least a couple of other classical musicians among DU Bernie supporters?

[pangaia]

172. GREAT questions..

I think I will PM you, as I will have to create a word doc so I can edit little by little to answer it all. :&gt ))))

Glad to..

I assume there might be other classical musicians but don't know who they are.

[senz]

173. A couple of our classical musicians

are commenting toward the bottom of this ridiculous thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511129430

I'd known about one, a clarinetist, as shown in her sig. It's kind of cool to have y'all around.

[Duckfan]

137. I am also an admirer of jazz-especially smooth jazz

But you must be fond of that dude in the movie Jerry McGuire who plays the brother of the girl he starts dating. If you remember he gave Cruise that cassette tape of an only recording of Miles and Coltrane together. I think back on that scene and the dude was so serious about the session being pure gold in the studio.

But I lost interest in MD after I found out what kind of musician he really was i.e. playing to an audience with his back turned to them.

[pangaia]

149. I heard all thjose guys in the city when I was "coming of age."

Then I moved away, slid away from playing jazz.. Then I went to visit my sister in La in... whenever it was. We went to a Miles gig. I hadn't seen him in forever. And he was playing with his back to the audience. It was kind odd putting, Kinda blue, actually. :&gt But....
It was hi bebop day and just after that I knew and kept with me...

[senz]

166. lol, he had his back turned the time I saw him, too, and I felt hurt by it

because we were physically near him. It seemed extremely unfriendly and rejecting. I later heard that he had an intense dislike of white people and assumed that was why he did it. Well, I can understand why PoC dislike whites; they have every right to. But it could also be that Miles found it difficult to concentrate when facing an audience. Van Morrison, a deeply musical person, also turned his back to the audience at times, but it always looked like he was so completely enthralled that he forgot everything else. There's something beautiful about losing yourself in what you're doing. It's one of nature's free highs. Seems a distinctly genius thing to do.

[in_cog_ni_to]

75. That's why they ignored him.

They knew people would love him and they do!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Duval]

94. The more who know him, the more support him.

[HooptieWagon]

40. Reducing a 30 point gap to 2, in 6 weeks.

I'll take it. Sanders can keep getting millions of $30 donations to continue to fight. Clinton can't go back to her $2700 donors and ask for more.

[Mnpaul]

122. Bernie has obviously plateaued

his poll numbers will flat line any minute now.

[HooptieWagon]

127. You can tell there's an earthquake happening.

Goalposts moving all over the place.

[Logical]

155. Read about margin of error! Nt

[HassleCat]

163. See my response above

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1148876

[winter is coming]

3. Mm. I predict that Larry Wilmore will be doing another "interview with Clinton staffer"

segment on Monday night's The Nightly Show.

[beam me up scottie]

10. Those skits are priceless!

I love the one where he chugs a bottle of Pepto:

?width=0&height=0&crop=true

[JimDandy]

91. That was one of the funniest skits I've ever seen! n/t

[beam me up scottie]

92. It was! Here's the video in case some haven't seen it yet:

[JimDandy]

98. Good idea. More people need to see this. It is so spot on!

[cui bono]

100. "if that's your position then I will talk only to white people..."

Can you imagine the Hillarage if Bernie had said that?

When that video came out it became crystal clear that almost all the Bernie/BLM DUraout was not really about race, it was about THE race to the White House. It was mostly just Hillarage.

It's a shame because it's an issue that deserves proper discussion and shouldn't be used as a political football.

.

[cali]

4. I don't buy it.

[hack89]

5. I can't wait for Super Tuesday to be over

and rationality is restored to DU.

When the state polls start changing is when I will get concerned.

[Le Taz Hot]

16. You can start getting concerned.

[hack89]

18. So Bernie has pulled even in every Super Tuesday state?

lets see the links please.

[Le Taz Hot]

22. Said no one but you . . .

[hack89]

26. But you implied the state polls are changing.

certainly you can at least show me those links. Thanks in advance.

[Le Taz Hot]

29. Not all polls are external polls.

He is coming up in ALL state polls. But it doesn't matter and I'm not going to bother with very searchable links because you are a blind Hillary supporter which means suspension of all reason. I'm not even sure why the hell you're on my screen.

<flush>

Problem solved.

[hack89]

30. Did you see the latest Boston Globe poll on New Hampshire?

how does that fit into you meme?

[dorkzilla]

49. Link please nt

[hack89]

55. Sure

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511148727

[dorkzilla]

58. Yeah I got it off the website

[A Simple Game]

117. You didn't read the entire thread did you?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511148727#post14

There was no movement in this particular poll.

[rhett o rick]

110. A link for a STRAWMAN? That's a new one.

[hack89]

111. How can the race be even nationally

if Bernie is behind in all the primary states? If he is still behind in all the Super Tuesday states then the national poll is irrelevant.

[rhett o rick]

112. STRAWMAN argument means that you put forth a defence for an argument that

no one presented. No one claimed he "has pulled even in every Super Tuesday state?" So you were asking for a link to show something no one claimed.

[hack89]

113. So you agree he is still behind in the Super Tuesday states?

and that the national poll is not reflective of the state of the elections.

[PoliticAverse]

53. Those 2 things will likely happen at different times. n/t

[hack89]

57. I am sure it will be ugly all the way to the convention

but one can always hope.

[totodeinhere]

134. To be tied nationally Bernie has to be leading in some states.

Yes state by state polls are important but nationwide trends are also important. And state polls tend to lag. We don't have recent results in many states that may reflect Bernie's recent surge.

[hack89]

145. I am with Nate Silver on this

national polls mean nothing at this stage of the election. State polls are all I look at. It will become clearer over the upcoming days.

[totodeinhere]

159. I respect Nate but I disagree to a point. National polls if nothing else have a psychological effect

and can affect the attitude of campaign donors and affect the enthusiasm and commitment of supporters. So yes national polls are important even though the nomination will be decided on a state by state basis.

[hack89]

161. But we do not hold a national primary

So national polls reflect a general election demographic that does not accurately reflects who votes in primaries.

[totodeinhere]

162. National polls do not reflect a general election demographic.

A general election demographic would include all voters, not just Democrats. But the poll we are discussing here was conducted among only self-described Democrats. I wish I could somehow get it through your head that it's the psychological effect of national polls that is important, not the ability of a national poll to reflect actual results.

The news that Bernie has come from 30 points down to tie Hillary in this national poll is big news. It is being discussed everywhere including here at DU and on the cable news networks. We can be sure that the Clinton campaign is not happy about this although like you they will try to spin it.

[hack89]

164. We will see

South Carolina will be the real test for Bernie. A state where POC are key. I doubt that that particular voting bloc is swayed by national polls. If Bernie loses SC then the national polls become irrelevant.

[totodeinhere]

168. Primaries are all about expectations. If Bernie loses South Carolina but comes closer than

expected then his campaign can spin it as a moral victory and the result may not hurt his campaign going forward. Where I think the race could be turned upside down is in Nevada. A Sanders victory there would be significant. For Sanders to win the Nevada caucuses he has got to run up a big margin in the north of the state to offset Hillary's popularity in Clark County.

[Logical]

156. "Rationality" meaning we all love hillary? Nt

[hack89]

160. No. The end of this Lord of the Flies phase we are going through

I would be happy to vote for either candidate in the general election.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

6. The unstoppable train is having trouble with it's overloaded baggage car. K&R

[kath]

9. Love this!

Waaaaaay too much baggage.

[PonyUp]

15. The wheels are starting to come off the train.

?w=448&h=302

[dgibby]

103. Looks to me like the train has left the station (sort of). n/t

[ChairmanAgnostic]

20. while the bridge is being washed out because

Wall street refused to pay its fair share in taxes that would fix our nation's infrastructure. They'd rather pay her unbelievably high sums
for a three hour tour. A three hour tour.
The weather started getting rough
the ship began to list
if not for the funding of her wall street pals
the mill would be short of grist.

[corkhead]

38. lulz

[Mike__M]

61. Buster Keaton: "The Secretary"

[Betty Karlson]

90. Good analogy. I see what you did there... eom

[cui bono]

102. hehe...

We need less weight! Oh nm, a bunch of supporters left to get on the Bernie Express. We're good. Um... sort of...

.

[neverforget]

115. A little late but

[Odin2005]

138. They lost Hillary's crown on the way to the coronation!

[HooptieWagon]

8. Camp Weathervane will claim it's an outlier.

However, when it's the same polling outfit that's showing that big a swing, then indeed the tide is turning. Time to send the DLClinton packing.

[hack89]

31. Or we can point to the latest NH polls that show Hillary surging

and cutting Bernie's lead to single digits.

[HooptieWagon]

35. Yes, she's closing the gap.

Anything worse than a tie is going to be a huge setback for her. The national polls have tightened up considerably. It's going to be a prolonged primary battle, and Hillary is going to run out of money...her $2700 donors can't donate again. Sanders donors can keep sending in their $30 donations till the cows come home. So Hillary desparately needs a tie in NH.

[hack89]

44. The primaries start and end on Super Tuesday

That is when a more realistic Democratic primary voting demographic has their say. That is where Hillary's organization will dominate.

Bernie might hang around to the convention but he will never significantly challenge Hillary when it comes to delegate counts.

[HooptieWagon]

47. Hillary will do well in the Southeast primaries...

...but the battle will be far from over. Bernie is going to do well in the northeast, rustbelt, and west coast. Hillarys campaign is going to be deeply in debt if she lasts that long.

[hack89]

54. So will Bernie's

he has to spend a shit ton of money real fast. That is the problem for him going forward - a lot of primaries in a short time. It takes a large experienced organization to win in such a situation. Bernie does not have that.

The issue is pretty straight forward. Bernie and Hillary will split the white vote while Hillary will dominate the non-white vote. That is what we saw in Iowa. That is a clear path to a Hillary victory.

[HooptieWagon]

59. Bernie raised $3m in 24 hrs following Iowa caucus.

Almost all his donors are under $200. They can keep giving and giving. Plus his campaign is thriftier. Clinton spends a lot on her focus groups, pollsters, hair and clothing, and first class travel for her 100 person entourage. She's going to run out of money in an extended primary battle.

[hack89]

60. He has no organization

he may have the money but no time to use it effectively. You cannot create an effective political organization overnight - Hillary has spent years building hers.

The money issue is overblown. She will spend what it takes. She still has more money on hand plus there is the Super Pac money that will easily mean another 60 million dollars of ads and support for her.

[HooptieWagon]

64. No organization?

He started less than a year ago with no name recognition and no money, polling in single digits 80 points behind Clinton. Now he nearly beat Clinton in Iowa, nearly ties her in latest national poll. He's doing quite well for "no organization". And he has out fundraiser her in January.
Clinton's super PAC money can't be used for her campaign, only ads. At some point, ads become so saturated they actually turn off voters. Media is dying anyway. But in any case, all the ads in the world won't help her if her campaign funds run out.

[hack89]

65. How many days did he spend in Iowa?

how many rallies and town halls did he hold?

There was no competition for his time - everything he did was focused on Iowa. Can't do that for the Super Tuesday states. Now you have to have an organization in multiple states and campaign in multiple states. States that are much bigger than Iowa. That is where Hillary's years of planning will win for her. That is where all those endorsements from Democratic office holders will pay off as they campaign for her. Bernie can't do that.

The national poll is not as important as the state polls. For one thing, we do not hold a national primary and that poll reflects a GE demographic. The demographics for Democratic primaries is much different - for one thing the role of POC is much larger in the primaries. That is why you need to look at the state polls. And right now Bernie is not doing well in any of them other than New Hampshire (and even then Hillary has sliced his lead to single digits since Iowa).

[HooptieWagon]

67. No more than Clinton.

Until January he was holding big rallies all over the country, even since then he hasn't been exclusively campaigning in Iowa. Plus he's still performing his Senate duties...he's only missed like 5% of votes.

[hack89]

70. Rallies =/= organizing

the nuts and bolts of getting out the vote is time consuming and requires an experienced organization. Bernie does not have that.

[HooptieWagon]

78. Had enough to tie Hillary in Iowa.

And there's plenty of states he's going to win.

[hack89]

80. You need to start linking to some state polls

right now he is in a massive hole. He has yet to show he can win in a state with a significant non-white electorate. Hillary won the non-white vote in Iowa by a large margin. Splitting the white vote with Hillary means she wins.

[pangaia]

83. You have in your last two posts

admitted that Hillary has been planning this for years. Since, oh, maybe about 1992..
That is one of the things that sickens me about her.

And then there is all that PAC money you say she can get.. That's another thing that sickens me.

[hack89]

84. That's nice. nt

[toothless dragon]

68. Hold On there

Money issue over blown?... no its not... if it wasn't for Millionaires for Hillary and Corporate Money Hillary wouldn't be a candidate....

[hack89]

72. Only in the sense that she is not going to run out of money

and be unable to compete like the poster I was replying to seems to think.

[HooptieWagon]

76. They're already running low on money.

Bill was wanting to reallocate resources to NH a few weeks ago when Iowa looked doubtfull. Their cash on hand is low, and her donors can't exceed the $2700 they've already given. Sanders has 3 million donors, very few have given the max.

[hack89]

79. She has more money on hand then Bernie does. nt

[HooptieWagon]

81. And she's burning through it much quicker.

Just like 2008. She's a slow learner.

[hack89]

82. She will have all that she needs

why would the 1% let down their chosen candidate?

[HooptieWagon]

85. Wall St already cut off Jeb's funding.

Hillary is still losing ground in polls, the 1% expect a better result on their purchase, not losing to a 74 year old Jewish socialist who's capturing voters imagination by storm. Voters are looking for fundamental change, not status quo from an establishment candidate. Both party's elites badly misread the tea leaves of public opinion...or they knew, and figured voters too stupid to figure out the scam.

[hack89]

87. Not in the New Hampshire poll

she cut Bernie's lead to single digits in just four days. Besides, once Super Tuesday comes around, Wall Street will feel much better. No way Bernie is going to come out of that the winner. I doubt he will win a single state.

[Helen Borg]

143. Worked really well in 2008.

[hack89]

146. Obama had a large and effective organization in place early

just another way Bernie is not Obama.

[Helen Borg]

147. Bernie has been setting up a large and effective organization in place as well.

[hack89]

148. There is no evidence of it

that's why he went the "hold large rallies every where" route - cheaper and quicker while compensating for a lack of organization.

[RBInMaine]

118. Bullshit. NH doesn't have to be a tie with Bernie having been SO far ahead, and he lives next door.

Last edited Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:57 PM - Edit history (1)

[Rosa Luxemburg]

157. where?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

[PonyUp]

12. Kicking and bouncing for Bernie!!!

[Le Taz Hot]

13. So, since I have all the Hillary cheerleaders on Ignore,

are they posting this one in all-caps headlines in 2 different forums and a couple of groups? Hmmmm?

[jeff47]

21. Nah, they're busy trumpeting the one where Clinton is only down by 15 in NH.

From a pollster that completely blew it in IA

[Le Taz Hot]

23. "Only down by 15 in NH."

That cracked me up. Rumor hath it that Nevada is starting to look pretty good for Sanders (maybe VERY good but I don't want to jinx it) and he's coming up in Arkansas -- one of her 3 "home" states. He's coming up in South Carolina but I think SC is solidly hers. Super Tuesday will not be a sweep for her and I think there's going to be some surprises.

[PonyUp]

41. 'Tis just a scratch" n/t

[Robbins]

46. OvertimePolitics

which was one of best on Iowa with bernie having on point lead had a poll of nevada In january with Clinton ahead 45 to 42.That was kind of ignored since they are new but they did very good In iowa on Dem side.they also have her up by 3 In Minnesotta and up by only 5 In Arkansas and here In Missouri.since MSM tends to ignore nevada is after NH first I think nevada could be a real race.
I feel Clinton will probally win SC but if we can make it close that is real victory.

[Le Taz Hot]

48. As in Iowa,

there are Californians (and I'm sure other staters as well) swarming to Nevada for the next two weeks. After that, we're planning on ascending to Colorado. Super Tuesday is not a done deal for her. Yes, she will win multiple states and will probably win the majority but she doesn't have all of them and, as I said earlier, I think there will be some surprises. By the way, there's movement in the Nevada polls.

[catnhatnh]

97. Don't for get Poland!

Er, Connecticut....4 years at Yale! And Illinois, and Arkansas, and New York, And Washington DC, and Pennsylvania....Hey-since Bernie is "supposed" to win NH because it's "Next to" Vermont, how many adjacent states are supposed to be cakewalks for Hillary???

[krawhitham]

14. k&r

[dreamnightwind]

19. It's a brand new day.

[AZ Progressive]

24. This is why you never let anyone else tell you what "reality" is

Even if they are so called experts. Anything can happen, don't close yourself from all possibilities.

[Helen Borg]

25. What worries me...

Is that the status quo candidate has in place a distributed network of loyal people. Even assuming that nobody is intentionally cheating, we all know about unconscious biases. And if you accumulate many of such biases, it can have an effect on the process. It can account for a few percentage points or so.

[SheenaR]

27. Looks fine and dandy

But I still think Bernie trails by more nationwide.


In two weeks I would believe this more, as the campaign has begun to do some very smart things volunteer-wise for Super Tuesday and beyond (per a conference call I was on).

Soon the entire country will know both candidates and the nation will decide.

[hack89]

28. Let this sink in - Boston Globe-Suffolk University New Hampshire Poll-Sanders 50% Clinton 41%

how big was Sanders' lead four days ago?

[FlatBaroque]

32. OMG did anyone predict this would happen?

Yeah. About 90% of DU.

[Trajan]

36. That's amazing ... Considering ...

EVERY deadly pen from every media empire have been hitting the polemical sauce this week, sharpening their quills and penning a wide array of fearful diatribes and cynical declamations ...

Wow, are THEY ever scared ... It's a full bore hatefest in the nation's newsrooms this morning ...

Somebody's got a bone to pick with Mr. Sanders ideas of fairness and regard for his fellow human beings ... They don't like his ideas, apparently ...

The ink is bloody red this morning ...

Time to donate again ...

[Cheese Sandwich]

37. omg. Holy wtf I didn't see that coming.

This will energize the Bernie support a lot because that headline is awesome.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

158. We'll see more donations and more big endorsements

watch people switch camps from Hillary to Bernie!

[jham123]

42. If you listened to Hillary supporters...

you'd believe that this 50/50 split is actually UNITY within the party

[amborin]

43. K&R the electorate can see through HRC's lies and ties to interests that harm the 99%

[Lordquinton]

45. Of course now polls are meaningless

Not just the online ones anymore.

[Indepatriot]

50. Can you imagine the Shitstorm that's raging right now at Weathervain Central.....?

Oh, to be a fly on the wall....

[Dustlawyer]

51. As people hear his message they usually turn into a supporter!

Bernie doesn't have to convince anyone the game is rigged, they already knew that. What they are learning is there is someone that is not bought off, that has a really long history of fighting for equality and against corruption, who is willing to take on TPTB!

Many will be people who stopped voting, got tired of the "lesser of two evils", or just feel that the Democratic Establishment has screwed them over. Bernie gives them hope that they can help to rid our government of the wealthy leaches that have been pulling the strings of our corrupt politicians.

I hope that all of the corrupt politicians, Wall Street power brokers/king makers, the MIC, Big Pharma, oil companies, insurance companies... all shit themselves! They will fight like he'll to retain control over our once Democratic government. It won't be easy, but if we can get Bernie in the White House and stand with him in the inevitable battle to enact Publicly Funded Elections, we can create huge positive changes for our country. Bernie was right last night when he said that nothing in his agenda will get done until we can get the $$$$ out of politics!!!

[TIME TO PANIC]

56. K & R!

[shawn703]

66. Is this Sanders' real honest-to-goodness ceiling?

Poor Camp Weathervane, never right on anything.

[HooptieWagon]

73. I hear they're 'reality-based'....

...though I have no idea what planet their base is on.

[kenfrequed]

69. Wait... have we plateaued yet?

I definitely recall that we were suppose to plateau last August, or October, or November.

[UglyGreed]

74. Like sinking into

a nice warm bath, so refreshing and very comfortable.

[FloridaBlues]

77. Can you say outlier poll

[Enthusiast]

86. Kicked and recommended!

[JimDandy]

88. Those polls never matched what was on the ground in my city.

Almost everyone I've talked to has been for Bernie for months, so where the heck were they polling before?

[JDPriestly]

89. K&R. No wonder Clinton was so angry last night.

Wow! Bernie will be the next president.

My theory of the day: Obama is very loved by all of us. But the Republicans were extremely nasty to him for no reason.

And now, we want a fighter. Someone who will put those Republicans in their places. The idiots. They were so nasty to Obama. Just let them try with Bernie. He will have the internet and the telephone wires into their offices so jammed that they won't know what hit them.

They should never have treated Obama who is a wonderful person so badly. What goes around comes around.

[Utopian Leftist]

107. Obama lacked the passion to fight them.

It's true that he handled himself with grace and dignity, at all times, even though the Cons did not.

But had he stood up for single payer or closing Guantanamo or putting Main Street over Wall Street, or any of the other liberal ideas that we hoped he would stand for, they could never have knocked him over.

They succeeded because of two things: 1) Obama didn't fight back and 2) The American Public has the attention span of a gnat (and if one doesn't "fight back," immediately, they assume tacit agreement).

Hopefully you are right and Bernie will be better able to stand up to them. After all, Bernie doesn't represent himself, he represents a grass-roots movement. And behind him stands towering the best ideas of Progressives, many as yet untried....

[billhicks76]

116. Nailed It

[strategery blunder]

140. It is said that after the 2008 election,

when Obama, having inherited the Wall Street Bailouts, held a meeting with the banksters and told them (and I'm paraphrasing), "You fcked up the economy and now you're demanding that the people you robbed blind hand over more taxpayer money to make good your gambling losses. I'm the only thing standing between you and the torches and pitchforks" when the banksters demanded more, more, more.

Of course, the banksters took their ball, went home, and engineered the 2010 teahadist propaganda. They managed to kick the can down the road for a few years, they thought they had OWS beaten into a pulp, but the anger that Obama tried to warn the banksters about cannot be suppressed forever.

The thing I love about Bernie is I can trust him to follow up on that message that Obama tried to give to the oligarchs years ago.

[SoapBox]

93. And he will continue to pull ahead of her...

and all of the batshit insane PukeBaggers.

[Duval]

95. K&R! Brings a smile! nt

[warrprayer]

96. K&R n/t

[katmondoo]

99. That makes sense

I love Bernie I only wish some here would be more realistic

[Uncle Joe]

101. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, WillyT.

[basselope]

104. What I love in that poll is that it also shows Sanders does better against the GOP.

[Utopian Leftist]

105. Our day will come . . .

And we'll have EVERYTHING!!!

[Live and Learn]

106. I love it. nt

[Warren DeMontague]

108. Oh, The Misogyny!

Damn You, Berniebros!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[billhicks76]

114. Wow That Was Fast

People must really crave an alternative.

[hifiguy]

119. They do.

They are sick to the teeth of the status quo of plutocracy and War Forever Everywhere. And no one represents that more vividly than HRH, at least among non-Republicans. Well, maybe the gormless and useless DWS. That I will grant.

[senz]

124. Remember when "certain individuals" were shoving polls down our throats daily?

[avaistheone1]

129. Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!

[totodeinhere]

135. Here is the thing that the Clinton camp does not want to hear. Bernie's recent surge has much to do

with growing support in minority communities. The more they get to know Bernie the more they like him. Much of Hillary's previous minority support was about name recognition.

[Beacool]

136. CBS reporting on the Quinnipiac poll.

One poll.

[HooptieWagon]

139. Reuters/Ipsos also reporting similar numbers.

[madokie]

141. Chelsea got it right a couple days ago

when she slipped and said President Sanders

I'm sure mother has taken her to the wood shed on that one too

[Helen Borg]

142. That is how Chelsea lost

Her inheritance!

[madokie]

144. Probably worse

[Faux pas]

151. Kicketty Kickin'

[Rosa Luxemburg]

152. Yep she's peaked

I had to pinch myself this morning. What wonderful news! This is the most exciting campaign!

[PATRICK]

153. She is losing

people who would have jumped ship to other centrist/known stars demonstrating a lack of ability to build voting numbers. Somewhat, but she could still power through a win. That of course is a guess based on whatever signs you also get from how insiders behave because they have better info than the rest of us, public opinion polls up the wazoo notwithstanding.

[Logical]

154. Yes!!! Nt

[senz]

167. This is such a happy thread I could hug it.

[LWolf]

169. Good to know. nt