NBC/WSJ/Marist: FLORIDA (Obama +1), VIRGINIA (Obama +2), OHIO (Obama +8)

[TroyD]

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama holds lead in Ohio; statistical tie in Va., Fla.

As President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney prepare to square off for their first debate Wednesday night, the Democratic incumbent maintains a significant lead in one key battleground state while the contests in two others have tightened, according to a new round of NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls.

In Ohio, Obama holds a 51 percent to 43 percent lead among likely voters, which is relatively unchanged from his 50 percent to 43 percent lead three weeks ago.

In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are statistically tied, with the Democrat clinging to a slight edge. In Florida, Obama leads 47 percent to 46 percent, down from 49 percent to 45 percent in mid-September. And in Virginia, Obama is up 48 percent to 46 percent. Last month, Obama led 49 percent to 45 percent in the Old Dominion state.

"The polling in September was right after the conventions," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. He added, "We may be seeing a dissipation in some of that post-convention bounce that [Obama] enjoyed."

Miringoff also noted, "Things have returned in Florida and Virginia to the kind of closeness we've been seeing earlier in the campaign. Not so in Ohio."

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More:

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/03/14194770-nbcwsj-poll-obama-holds-lead-in-ohio-statistical-tie-in-va-fla

[mucifer]

1. Those numbers are pretty crappy.

But, I don't expect President Obama to win Florida because of shenanigans.

[TroyD]

2. I'd say they're pretty good

This year was always expected to be closer.

I think leading in almost all the swing states is pretty good.

A big lead in Ohio, and small leads in Virginia and Florida are better than I expected when 2012 began.

[bigdarryl]

3. Noticed when the right wing started complaining about the polls

All of a sudden your seeing tighting of polls

[TroyD]

4. Part of it may just be normal tightening

And the basic trends have not changed in any major way. Obama is still ahead nationally and in the swing states.

In a year like this, it's probably unrealistic to have expected the bounce to last forever.

[ProSense]

10. I did notice that

the VA Republican sample increased by 4 percent and 5 percent among the LV and RV, respectively.

In Florida, there was a 13-point swing among independents, a 48 to 41 lead by Obama is now a 47 to 41 lead for Romney. From the link in the OP.

The movement in Florida came from independents. Both parties are locked in, but in this survey, independents broke for Romney 47 percent to 41 percent. Three weeks ago, Obama led with them 48 percent to 41 percent.

[woolldog]

13. A 13 point swing is extremely troubling. nt

[Floyd_Gondolli]

15. Meh.....not really

Troubling would be something altogether different.

[graham4anything]

5. actually a few months ago, everyone predicted Florida was out of reach for Obama and he is leading

Now he is leading.
And remember, when polls compare one week or month to the next, a few points here or there is just statistical noice and it does not mean Romney is anywhere near 50 in any state, and
these polls don't take into account Gary Johnson who has been making some noise and news and 100% of his votes will be one vote less for Mittens.

not to mention IF OBAMA WINS OHIO, all roads to 270 end for Mittens.
And Obama may surprise in Arizona, and Missouri and who knows, could Georgia swing to blue?

and could a silent majority of women in Texas come up with the biggest surprise of all time? I do not write out Texas going for Obama.

(and you may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one as John Lennon sang)

[smorkingapple]

7. You're not dreaming you're delusional

TX, GA, AZ and MS are not going for Obama. It's a miracle if Obama keeps it within 5 points in each state but he's not winning those states under any circumstances.

[graham4anything]

8. if Howard Dean were still involved w/ 50 state strategy, he would be leading all 4 states

and I am talking about Missouri, not Mississippi btw

but Gov. Castro in a few years will make 2016 winnable with Hillary
and Arizona will be a demographic change state very very soon thank the good Lord and the great people making up the demographic change

[TroyD]

9. There's a chance to win the Senate seat for Arizona with Carmona

He's close to Flake in the polls and the DSCC is spending $500,000 in a new ad buy for him.

[TroyD]

6. SENATE polls for OHIO, VIRGINIA & FLORIDA

OHIO - SENATE (Brown +9)

NBC/WSJ/Marist

Brown (D) - 50

Mandel (R) - 41

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VIRGINIA - SENATE (Kaine +5)

NBC/WSJ/Marist

Kaine (D) - 49

Allen (R) - 44

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FLORIDA - SENATE (Nelson +11)

NBC/WSJ/Marist

Nelson (D) - 52

Mack (R) - 41

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In the hotly contested Virginia Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen, 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Last month, Kaine and Allen were tied, 46 percent to 46 percent.

In Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to lead Republican challenger Josh Mandel. Brown holds a 50 percent to 41 percent lead, which is slightly expanded from where the race was last month. Brown then led 49 percent to 42 percent.

In Florida, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson holds a 52 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican challenger Connie Mack. Last month, Nelson's lead was a slightly wider 14 points.

[graham4anything]

11. Florida and VA have to be bigger leads for Obama based on the senate races

I figure the real totals for Obama are more in tune with the senate races

[WI_DEM]

12. The only surprise to me is Virginia because other polls have shown Obama up by

more than two-points there, and I feel that is probably the case, but taken as a whole, not bad.

[woolldog]

14. Clinton need to campaign in FL and VA

....Obama could use his help there.