Nate Silver: Expect a Small Romney Bounce Over the Next Week

[Doctor Jack]

A new article this morning from Nate Silver looks at the short term effects that the first debates have on the polls. What he found is that the challenger tends to make a small, roughly 1 week gain in the polls. Mostly it is because of national exposure for the candidate that people don't know as well. So, if a week from now, Obama is up by 1 or 2 points, probably best to just keep calm and carry on.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/first-debate-often-helps-challenger-in-polls/#more-35440

He also mentions that no candidate has even been as far down as Romney is at this point and went on to win the election, so lets all ignore the media next week when they talk about Romney's dead cat bounce, yes?

[democrat_patriot]

1. "Keep Calm and Carry On" - love it.

I use that all the time at work...

[nichomachus]

2. Also, the media will spin it that Romney "won" the debate

No matter what really happens. The media need a horserace -- otherwise, they're out of business.

[Doctor Jack]

3. I bet Meet the Press will do a segment

where they count how many times Obama blinked over the 90 minutes and then talk how it means he lost the debate for some reason.

[nichomachus]

25. That's what they did in 2000

when they played a clip of Al Gore sighing over and over and over and over -- with the volume cranked up. Even if you watched the debate, by the time the corporate media was through you would have thought that he didn't say anything, but just stood there and sighed. He did one or two times -- who wouldn't having to debate a shit-for-brains like Bush -- but it was nowhere near what the media led people to believe.

After the debate, all the polls indicated that Gore won. All the media declared that Bush was the winner.

[Cha]

32. Yeah, they'll have all recons on to say how

Presidential mitt looked and Pres Obama..well..

Gregory will throw softball at them and they'll think they hit it out of the studio.

[spinbaby]

15. You got it

It's always interesting to watch the debate and then the spin immediately afterward--it's like the commentators saw some other debate. I predict Romney will be declared the winner if he manages not to fall down or wet his pants.

[SoapBox]

19. Ditto...

And ya know, I am SICK and TIRED of even the folks on MSNBC talking about how "good Romney" will be!

WTF? Shut up! How about just talking about how good President Obama will be!

STFU talking about Willard and how well practiced he's gonna be...he makes me sick just to look at him...he carries the STENCH of LIAR.

[fleur-de-lisa]

4. Dead cat bounce !!!

LOL !!!

[Jackpine Radical]

7. An old expression, usually describing

the small recovery due to opportunistic buying that typically follows a crash in the stock market.

[Doctor Jack]

10. I think that is what is going on over at intrade

Romney has gained 5 percentage points in the averages this week for absolutely no reason.

[progressivebydesign]

29. because apparently the media doesn't care that Romney obfuscated the tax return thing..

and got away with it. I'm still pissed about that! HOPE it comes up again. It's so unfair.

[flamingdem]

12. Dead Willard Rat bounce! nt

[anneboleyn]

23. Exactly. If he does get a bounce it will be the proverbial dead cat bounce.

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

5. Of course

There would be good reason to believe that, if there were no debates at all, the race would tighten. There always seems to be a bit of wavering among the small percentage of mushy voters (who, amazingly, decide elections based on tie colors and smiles) as election day nears. Then, as well stated, there is the media clamoring for the drama of a close election.
If they can't report on one, they create one!

[Doctor Jack]

6. I also wouldn't be suprised if it doesn't happen

Remember how everyone yawned after their convention?

[MjolnirTime]

8. that's assuming Willard keeps his mouth closed.

[Doctor Jack]

9. I do wonder if someone somewhere has more suprises about Romney

I can't imagine the 47% video is the last surprise we will get about Romney.

[DCBob]

11. I also think the effect of 47% comments is wearing off a bit.

We need another duzy from Willard to keep it going. Maybe he will say something goofy tonight... I suspect he will.

[Ebadlun]

13. The challenger tends to get a bump from his convention too

Romeny didn't.

[Doctor Jack]

14. He actually did get a bounce

It was just pathetically small and didn't result in him ever pulling into the lead. The big problem with his convention bounce is that he needed to actually lead Obama for us to say that the convention had some kind of positive effect, long term. At best he pulled into a tie for about a day before collapsing again.

[Robbins]

16. Thing to watch for

How do voters feel the debate went not the pundits.On MSNBC back In 2008 they had Roger simon from Politico who tried to argue
that Mccain won the debate untill Keith Olberman reported polls of viewers saying they thought Obama won.It was similar at VP
debate he tried to claim Palin won till viewer reaction said a different story.With second debate Simon stopped trying to claim Mccain won.

So what viewers say are going to matter more than pundits.

[Doctor Jack]

18. I wouldn't be suprised if Romney is declaired the winner early on

The republicans always seem to be declared the winner by the pundits right away. Thankfully most people don't listen the "experts"

[elleng]

17. Thanks. Was just going to post the story.

Posted this last night, re: another statistician:

Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251116033

[Bluenorthwest]

20. We shall see..I'm not so sure about that...

this gets out of Nate's area of expretise, statistics, and into predicting events that have not yet happened. Hard to swallow the idea that the actual event does not matter at all, which is basically what Nate is saying. The past indicates such a bumb, but the past is not tonight, that's still the future....so who knows?
Could happen. But maybe not. Too many variables to know until it all goes down.

[Blue Idaho]

21. As long as Bishop Willard doesn't actually shit his pants on live TV

The usual M$M talking heads will swoon over his performance. They need a real tight "horse race" to drive up ratings for their political talking heads programs and more importantly - drive up the cost of advertising time for the networks.

I am so sick of the M$M inventing the news instead of reporting it.

[Doctor Jack]

22. "Romney was taller than Obama this evening"

"That is going to play real well in Wisconsin and Ohio"

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Not to say Nate's wrong (he could be right)...

But Romney has failed to receive the traditional bounce expected by the challenger in this race. He didn't receive it after wrapping up his party's nomination back in spring, as expected. He really didn't receive it after the Ryan pick, as expected ... and he didn't receive it after the convention ... as expected.

So, while it may happen, past results haven't really been a good indicator for Romney.

[Cha]

33. Great Points! nt

[smorkingapple]

26. His bounce will come all from R states... I expect little to no movement in swing states

Ignore national polls for next week. You can expect some movement from the Alabama's and Louisiana's of the world since they'll think Romney wiped the floor with Obama.

It's all about the swing states, ignore the national polls...

[DCBob]

27. a small bounce is akin to a limp erection..

they give one hope but neither will get the job done.

[Doctor Jack]

30. Mitt "Limp Dick" Romney

[Kteachums]

28. I think Romney will flub in the debates big time!

Really, has he given a good speech yet? He has to be nervous against the best speaker of our times. I don't think he will go up in the poles at all!

[Doctor Jack]

31. Wouldn't put it past him

He doesn't do well under pressure

[Cha]

34. Mitt won't get a bounce if Pres Obama

is able to put him in his place and leave him there.

And, by place I mean corner him in his Lying Box of LIES.

The pundits have "Great Expectations" for Willard

[Silent3]

35. Nate Silver isn't saying anything specific about Obama and Romney here.

He's just relating what usually happens after a first debate for a generic challenger competing against a generic incumbent.

Given the specifics of Obama and Romney, I'd give Obama an edge over these generic odds, but my guess (and I admit it's just a guess) is that in this debate both men are likely to be too rehearsed and too scripted for anything much to happen, which might still allow for a small (but in the end inconsequential) bump for Romney, not enough to help on election day.

Then again, if tonight doesn't hold much drama, maybe that'll hit Romney hard because of all the expectations that have been built up that this is when Romney needs to turn the tide in a dramatic way.

Of course I'm hoping Obama will wipe the floor with Romney... unlikely, but a man can dream.

[TroyD]

36. I Don't Like the Sound of That

I don't want Romney to get any bump, even a small one.

[LiberalFighter]

37. Nate might be right in normal circumstances but

When there were how many Republican debates?
How many stories about Rmoney?
A Republican convention later than usual.
When all a national exposure does for a candidate is make them not like the candidate as much.
When there are fewer undecideds than usual at this point in time.

[hrmjustin]

38. Obama will get the bounce.

[Tcbys]

39. What if Mittens has a major gaffe like usual for him. Then he will drop.

Then he will fall like a lead balloon.

[Doctor Jack]

40. What did i say?

I said Romney would likely show gains in the polls over the next few days and to keep calm. And we have polls out tonight showing romney making gains from the debate and everyone loses their minds!

Too many anxious people here. That can't be good for you.