Does Obama need to win Florida and VA in order to win the election?

[dennis4868]

I see that it's tightening up in Florida and VA...at least that's what the latest polls say. Does Obama need to win Florida and VA if he wins Ohio?

[Drunken Irishman]

1. The latest polls don't show it tightening in Florida and Virginia...

[dennis4868]

8. the polls

I saw today showed is very close...2 points close.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. That's great...

There are also polls that show Obama up 8 in Virginia. You can't just pick and choose what polls and say "oh, well the race is tightening!"

[dennis4868]

11. you are right...

which polls has Obama up by 8 in VA and when was the poll taken?

[davidn3600]

15. Florida has tightened some.

NBC and Gravis Marketing poll both show Obama up by only 1 point. I know a Quinnipiac poll is showing Obama with like a 9 point lead, but I'd toss that poll. No other poll is showing anything like that.

Florida is much tighter than both Ohio and Virginia.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Again, you're taking polls and comparing them to one another.

You can't do that. Obama's lead has dropped by 1.2 Sept. 29th ... all statistical noise.

[Lex]

2. With this map you can do your own scenarios

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#_

[TexasCPA]

3. He doesn't need either state

Obama Total
Evs Lead Evs
NC 15 , -0.8 , 348
NE2 1 , 0 , 333
FL 29 , 2 , 332
CO 9 , 3 , 303
VA 13 , 3.5 , 294
IA 6 , 3.5 , 281
NV 6 , 5.2 , 275
OH 18 , 5.5 , 269
NH 4 , 6 , 251
WI 10 , 7.6 , 247
ME2 1 , 7.8 , 237
PA 20 , 8 , 236
MN 10 , 8.4 , 216
OR 7 , 8.5 , 206
NM 5 , 9.2 , 199
MI 16 , 10 , 194
ALL Other 178 , >10 , 178

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Not necessarily

I did a map projection on 270towin.com and Mitt could win VA, NC, FL and even a couple other states and STILL not win- assuming that most of the midwestern states (sans Indiana) go for President Obama. Romney doesn't have a very good map to work with. He has very few paths to 270 that I don't see materializing unless President Obama simply falls apart (which isn't going to happen IMHO)

Edit: Mitt could take the west (sans New Mexico) and the south and still lose as long as President Obama keeps the northeast and midwest areas (sans Indiana). The margin would be closer (Romney 263 EV) but Romney still loses.

[RDANGELO]

5. As long as he has PA, Wis/ OH and Mich he has the upper hand.

Romney would still have to sweep the rest of the swing states to win.

[still_one]

6. An Ohio win plus other combinations would do it also

[jberryhill]

7. Short answer - no

In fact, we could win without (FL, VA, OH) if we get (IA, NV, CO)

It's a really tough map for Romney, since he has to sweep a lot of states that are already pretty far out of his reach.

[Jennicut]

9. Nope. He could win OH, NV and not need VA and FL.

He could even lose Iowa and NH and Colorado on top of losing VA and FL and still win. It would be 271 to 267.
With Ohio, Obama can win in a # of ways.

Romney's path in the electoral college is much harder.

[BlueState]

12. Check out the latest electoral map at real clear politics

They have Obama with 269 electoral without VA or FLA.

All he needs is to win all the states where he is currently the favorite and pull any one of the remaining toss-ups.
As Jennicut states above this is an easier and more likely task to achieve. Romney has the far more uphill climb
to win.

Edit to add Link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[AndyTiedye]

16. 269 Sends It to the House, Which Means Romney Wins

Even if we get a majority in the House, that's not good enough, we need to win a majority of the state delegations in the House if the election ends up there.

[BlueState]

20. I understand that.

There are several toss up states left other than VA and FL. Obama is certain to win at least one of them which puts him over 270

[LiberalFighter]

13. The question to ask is which states does Rmoney need to win?

If he needs too many of the tossups to come close then he is swimming upstream like a fish without fins.

[hrmjustin]

14. No but it helps. Obama needs OH.

[aaaaaa5a]

17. No. The Kerry "04 Map plus Ohio is enough.

Watch these 3 states.

Wisconsin
Iowa
Ohio


If the President wins these 3 the race is over.

In fact under this scenario, the President could even lose NH and still hit 270. Wisconsin and Ohio look very good for the President. He also leads in Iowa. Should Iowa fail, a victory in Nevada also assures a second term. Notice none of these scenarios include CO, FL or VA.

For a 51-49 election, the President has too many paths to 270 to lose. This is where the media is failing the American people. The race has always been relatively close "Nationally", but in the electoral college, Obama has held a big edge from the start. And with Ohio very within his grasp, he all but has a lock on 270.

[woolldog]

19. Short answer is no:

[Tcbys]

21. I dont want it to be that close. Im on pins and needles as of now.