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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 08:43 PM

Will the Michigan primary be the end of the Romney campaign? PPP Romney -15

edited to add that this LBN thread shows that ARG poll shows the exact same number as PPP

http://www.democraticunderground.com/101450921

Michigan is where Romney was born and raised and where his dad was Governor.

In 2008 it was

Romney 39%
McCain 30%
Huckabee 16%


Now PPP is projecting

Santorum 39%
Romney 24%
Ron Paul 24%
Newt Gingrich 11%

It confirms a larger trend that Romney is getting less support than he did 4 years ago and only appeared to be the front runner when there were more candidates running. As the field narrowed he stayed in place as others passed him by.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. Santorum is winning by a healthy margin in every region of the state except for Oakland County, where Romney has a 40-26 advantage, and the area around Lansing where Paul actually has an advantage at 30% to 27% for both Romney and Santorum.




PPP is also advising that when it comes to who will be a stronger candidate against Obama Santorum is outperforming Romney. So if Romney is losing the electability argument then what is he going to run on?

A loss in Michigan would be a huge disaster for Romney. I doubt that he would continue to get the huge checks he did before as the big pockets are going to start questioning the investment.

On Intrade Obama continues to run about 60% for Presidential election and Romney about 30%.

If Romney can't take Michigan where will his 'firewall' be?

The Republican primaries differ from the Democratic ones in many respects but one is very important, they give much more reward to their traditional base so that the South, for exampole, has a much larger power position than in the Democratic primaries.

Bad news keeps on rolling for ole Mitt Romney.

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Will the Michigan primary be the end of the Romney campaign? PPP Romney -15 (Original post)
grantcart Feb 2012 OP
Siwsan Feb 2012 #1
grantcart Feb 2012 #4
Siwsan Feb 2012 #6
grantcart Feb 2012 #8
David__77 Feb 2012 #2
grantcart Feb 2012 #3
RandySF Feb 2012 #5
grantcart Feb 2012 #11
neverforget Feb 2012 #7
customerserviceguy Feb 2012 #9
Brother Buzz Feb 2012 #10
Rowdyboy Feb 2012 #12
politicasista Feb 2012 #14
DCBob Feb 2012 #13

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 08:47 PM

1. Doesn't surprise me

After Willard proposed that he thought his birth state and its auto industry should just disappear into bankruptcy. I hope he gets utterly humiliated and I would think getting bested by Santorum has to be one of the most humiliating things that can happen to a politician.

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Response to Siwsan (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 08:59 PM

4. We know how much humiliation Gingrich will take and keep on ticking.


How much will Willard take.

Would he accept a VP spot just to get the acceptance for his Mormon Church that he so desperately wants?

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Response to grantcart (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 09:09 PM

6. Who would want him??

Willard just needs to buy himself an island, somewhere, and appoint himself its president.

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Response to Siwsan (Reply #6)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 09:36 PM

8. that's what Utah was for.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 08:55 PM

2. Romney would be a disaster for the Republicans.

I hope that the Democratic strategists realize this. Santorum would do more to consolidate and mobilize the core of the Republicans, which is the best they can hope for in this election. I do not preclude the possibility of Santorum actually winning the presidency, but I do preclude the possibility of Romney doing so.

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Response to David__77 (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 08:58 PM

3. I agree 100%


Santorum would give the President a larger electoral victory but it would cost us House Seats and Senate Seats.

Romney would be slightly closer on the Presidential side but the base would sit home and we would pick up swing districts and states.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 09:05 PM

5. No

Romney's super-pac just bought up $500k in time. They will carpetbomb Santorum, but I think he will walk out with a nice bag of delegates.

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Response to RandySF (Reply #5)

Tue Feb 14, 2012, 12:46 AM

11. That seems to be having an adverse impact and has dragged Romney's negatives down

Also for conservatives Santorum isn't the easy mark that Gingrich and Perry were.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 13, 2012, 09:27 PM

7. Poor Mitt. Repukes just don't like him.

Maybe that's because he's so phoney? Inauthentic? An asshole? All the above?

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Response to neverforget (Reply #7)

Tue Feb 14, 2012, 12:20 AM

9. Well, there's that Mormon thing

It does freak a lot of people out once they find out how different Mormon theology is from most traditional Christian teachings. It also bothers them that those dudes in the white shirts and dark ties will have a new recruitment tool, both domestically and abroad.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Feb 14, 2012, 12:37 AM

10. Michigan has electronic voting machines

I'm just saying.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Feb 14, 2012, 02:49 AM

12. Somehow, someway, he doesn't conect....John Kerry never did, Mike Dukakis never did,

and Willard Mittington Romney doesn't connect either.

Sometimes thats just how life goes.

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Response to Rowdyboy (Reply #12)

Tue Feb 14, 2012, 05:35 PM

14. Yep. Senator Kerry didn't connect and get big crowds

Yep. People were only there to see the Boss, Bill Clinton and other celebs.


Really he didn't connect to those people in WI a few days before the 04 election. The GOP, and the media said that too!


Thanks for continuing to throw a Dem who's done nothing but give unwavering support to our President. But that is what we liberals do.

Guess people will never, ever forgive him for beating their favorites. Kinda like those that will never forgive Obama for beating Hillary.

And Senator Kerry is a man of integrity period. Something that the lowlife Romney will never, ever be.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Feb 14, 2012, 07:53 AM

13. There's still two weeks to go before Michigan.

That's an eternity especially considering how this crazy primary has gone so far. I suspect Willard will spend a ton of money and close that gap by voting day. The GOPer primary voter is fickle.. they are easily and quickly swayed by ads, events, news, etc. Romney still commands the "most likely" status. That's hard for any other candidate to fight against.

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