Obama's lead over Romney slips to 2 points after debate: Reuters/Ipsos poll

[Blue Yorker]

Not good.

"President Barack Obama's lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney has narrowed to just 2 percentage points since Romney's strong performance in their first debate, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

In more bad news for Obama, one in five voters said the Democrat's performance in the contest in Denver on Wednesday made them feel more negative about him, while almost a third said they felt more positive about Romney.

The online poll conducted from Monday to Friday showed 46 percent of likely voters backed Obama, versus 44 percent for Romney. Obama had led by 48 to 43 percent in Thursday's daily tracking poll, the first to include a day of interviews after the debate."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

[dennis4868]

1. Getting sick of all these polls

Seems like we are getting more bad news than good news with the polls since the damn debate. This is making me sick!

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Yeah. I think it's clear Obama lost this thing.

[Jennicut]

8. Romney will get a 2 to 3% bounce from this.

Nate Silver predicted it. But then it may settle back down after the jobs report is factored into the polling.

[GumboYaYa]

15. Don't get mad at the polls, get mad at Obama and his campaign...demand that they do a better job!

We need to stop acting like this isn't so bad and recognize his performance for what it was...a massive FAIL.

Contact the campaign and demand that Obama be more prepared and ready to fight for Democratic ideas and principles. He owes it to all of us who have donated, knocked on doors and called relentlessly to get prepared to debate Romney and take the debate seriously.

[dennis4868]

19. I agree...

I love the man but he let us down the other night not showing enough energy and passion like we all expected from him.

[mgcgulfcoast]

63. i agree. you dont play it safe when its this close

obama needs to step up.

[NightOwwl]

2. Oh noes!!!

?w=300&h=200

[Drunken Irishman]

3. NOT GOOD! OMFG.

PLEASE TELL ME WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO?!? GODAMMIT, BLUE YORKER! I'M SCARED! FUCK!

[dennis4868]

7. ur being sarcastic...

my family and I will be in big trouble in Romney and Repubs win in November...this is no joke!

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I KNOW! ONE POLL! AND OBAMA STILL LEADS! BUT DAMMIT, LET'S ALL FREAK OUT...

THIS IS SOME SHIT RIGHT HERE. WE'RE GONNA LOSE. FUCK. FUCK. FUCK.

HELLO PRESIDENT ROMNEY!

[dennis4868]

13. Well...

Rasmussen had a bump for Romney and had him in the lead in Florida, VA, and OHIO! I know it's Rasmussen but they were fairly accurate in 2008.

[Jennicut]

18. They were off pretty badly in 2010. And Rasmussen has Obama ahead in Ohio.

One point behind in VA and two points behind in FL. For Rasmussen I would say that is actually not too bad.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. GET YOUR FACTS OUT OF HERE.

Seriously. People need to calm the fuck down. One poll, two polls ... none of it matters until ALL polls show the same thing. There are bound to be good polls for Obama and bad polls. Gallup has Obama up 5 ... Rasmussen has him up 2. Until Obama trials universally, as Romney still does, this premature panic does no one any good.

[Jennicut]

35. No, it doesn't.

And there are two more Presidential debates and a VP debate and weeks of campaigning left. The polls will tighten a bit and then they might not. I prefer to take it day by day then the "one poll, we are doomed!." I also don't want to be a Repub that sees all polls as lies. Romney will get a bounce but Obama may weather it. If the jobs report today was pretty bad, then it might have built on the debate and then I would be more worried.

[Dawson Leery]

37. Obama has time to regain a sizable lead.

He is still leading. Today's jobs report took away Romney's key talking point about the unemployment rate being above 8 percent for the past 4 years.

[oswaldactedalone]

61. The bounce isn't over

Dems better hit back hard with ads using some of that $181 mil quickly.

[rhombus]

4. Sure, but that was before today's good unemployment number

Polls will be in flux. We have to wait till next Tues (per Nate Silver) for the full effect of the debate + 7.8% unemployment rate to see where the race is.

Oct 20 is when I think we'd know the full score.

[tblue]

30. National polls mean nothing.

They didn't before and they don't now.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

6. Question

I read that this particular poll was an online survey. Was the number that had Obama up by 5 yesterday their phone/live person survey?

Because the wording seems to say this is a separate deal.

[Blue Yorker]

11. This is part of their daily 5-day online tracking poll n/t

[upaloopa]

9. 1in 5 is 20%. A third is 33%. More people felt positive

than felt negative.

[regnaD kciN]

16. To be specific...

...people felt more favorable for Romney than felt negative for Obama.

Either way, not good at all.

[dennis4868]

21. yep, for the first time ina long time...

I am scared that Obama will lose...that debate performance could have been a game changer...I love Obama and will continue to donate and do whatever else it takes, but this is not good...go ahead and bash me...I am just talking reality here.

[Lisa D]

23. This is not a game changer.

If one debate was a game changer, there would have been a President Perot and a President Mondale.

[dennis4868]

24. those were different times...

there was no 24/7 cable tv news telling the sheeple who won the debate and how great he would be as president.

[fugop]

28. Kerry whupped Bush's ass

Three times. Obama's fine. Had the job numbers been bad, I'll admit I would have been freaking. But those numbers made a brand new sunshiney day, so settle down and enjoy.

[Lisa D]

32. Remember how those 24/7 cable tv news shows

were SO excited when McCain announced Palin as his running mate? I believe they called her a game changer (there's even a book/movie about it).

And remember how those 24 hour cable shows all said that Palin bested Joe Biden in their vice presidential debate? How she and McCain were true mavericks?

How did that work out for them?

We both want Obama to win too, and I absolutely understand how you feel. Look at it this way: the first debate was a skirmish in the long election war. Romney was declared the winner, but it's unknown yet if he'll gain any ground in the swing states--which are the only places that matter in the election.

Obama's already won most of the territory he needs to win the war. The job numbers and the new unemployment figure are both big, new wins for Obama. And that's what those cable shows are focused on now.

So we all live to fight another day

[cheriemedium59]

55. And President Kerry and President Hilary Clinton...

[MjolnirTime]

12. Your posts all have a common theme. Don't they??

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. You can post whatever polls you like

And I never said otherwise. I will point out whether I think a poll sucks or not. Your assertion that I prefer cherry picking polls is not borne out by any evidence, despite the hilarious imaginings of you and your newbie buddy.

And none of that changes my impression of your newbie buddy. Probably, if you're going to call me out by name, you should confront me directly, instead of being a coward about it. As it stands, I should say in my defense that I'm not particularly nervous about these polls, but I do dislike utterly dishonest people trying to get one over on this community.

For the record, I think this poll is probably accurate. Thanks for posting it.

[dennis4868]

22. yes...

we love our country and the polls are going for Romney now and we are worried...what's wrong with that?

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Because it's a lie.

You're either purposely pushing this narrative or you really don't understand polling. One poll has Romney cutting into Obama's lead nationally. The others, including Gallup & Rasmussen, have it almost unchanged (in fact, Obama is +1 in the Gallup since yesterday ... five overall) ... yet, I don't see you pointing that out.

Hm...

[dennis4868]

31. I have been a member of DU since the beginning...

please don't make allegations that I am purposefully saying things to make Obama look bad. But I do agree with you. I am not an expert when it comes to polls.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. I see what I see...

I see a person who is hellbent on pushing a narrative that doesn't exist. Just picking and choosing one poll to freak out on is just as ridiculous as picking one poll and saying, "THIS IS PROOF OBAMA IS KICKING ASS."

The point? RCP has Obama's margin at +3.2 .1 better than it was yesterday. That might change ... it could change ... it will change ... but until Obama is behind in that average, I see no reason to fuss over these polls.

[MjolnirTime]

49. Lieberman was a Democrat, too.

[JoePhilly]

14. Not a problem at all. Romney can't get above 47% in ANY National poll.

And until he does so REPEATEDLY, he can't win.

Obama rarely drops below 47%, and Romney rarely breaks above 47%.

[regnaD kciN]

27. Actually, the results aren't good...

What Nate Silver said about polls in the next few days was that, while Romney was going to gain in the polls, the question would be whether that gain came out if the remaining undecideds (in which case, Obama would still be close enough to 50%-plus-one that it wouldn't matter) or out of Obama's percentage (which would mean Romney has a much closer path to victory). As it turns out, most of the gain came from Obama's numbers. Not good.

And another point:

Yesterday morning's (post-debate) numbers in this poll showed little movement toward Romney, while the numbers taken last night and this morning must have shown a huge tilt toward him (possibly even putting him in the lead for the day). This would suggest that the debate itself changed matters little; hearing the news stories and pundits going on and on about what a game-changer it was made a lot more of a difference in peoples' perceptions.

[JoePhilly]

42. And UE dropping to 7.8% will offset that ... and Mitt will struggle to break 47%.

Also ... you might want to go to real clear politics and check the EC map.

Mitt's "path to victory" is almost non-existent. Obama has an EC lead of about 70 votes or more.

Mitt needs almost every battle ground state ... Obama doesn't need more than 2 or maybe three.

[landolfi]

26. Give it a week

That's long enough for the lies to be exposed and the truth to settle in. The jobs number will help too.

[Mr.Turnip]

34. I just don't get it, even before the debate IPOS had been showing the number of undecideds GROWING.

Who the hell at this point in the game goes from decided to undecided, I can understand people changing their mind yeah but this is getting silly.

[NCLefty]

36. O can reverse the debate impact at the next one.

[skor584_2il]

38. this makes me kind of nervous, really

[RBInMaine]

45. Progressives need to learn to stop being nervous and start canvassing, calling, donating, and VOTING

[Cali_Democrat]

39. So Romney gained a whole point

impressive

[regnaD kciN]

41. No, Romney gained three points...

...one from undecideds and two from Obama voters.

Put it another way: since this is a four-day tracking poll, to gain three points means that the most recent day of polling had Romney doing around 12 points better than in the day that dropped off (Sunday-Monday). So, if Obama was up 5 in the sample that dropped off, it would mean that Romney was leading by 7 this past day.

Now, the Ipsos/Reuters poll has a pretty large margin-of-error of 5.2% per candidate, or over 10% in any potential difference between them, so the results can be questioned. However, when you look at the swing-state polls (not all by Ras) taken post-debate, putting Romney back in the lead in Florida and Virginia, and virtually tied in Ohio and Colorado, it's not unreasonable to conclude that Romney got a boost from his debate performance that will turn out to be much larger than the 2.2 points predicted by Nate Silver. Will the jobs report cause the number to swing back? Only time will tell.

[JoePhilly]

44. Did he break 47%?

And real clear politics does not share your swing state concern.

Here, play with this ... you can make your own map.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html

Obama has far more paths to 270 than Romney.

[oviedodem]

40. be nervous because this poll and Ras were the best for the 2008 election.

[JoePhilly]

43. RAS only gets it right in the last week, they sckew GOP the rest of the time.

You can go back and see this in the 2008 election.

You want to be accurate ... ignore ANY single poll and watch the real clear averages of ALL polls.

[NYC Liberal]

46. I'm as confident now as I was before the debate and will remain so barring some game-changing event.

Romney has yet to break open a lead in this race, and we're only weeks away from the election. Obama saw a massive swing in favorability among independents after the debate, whereas Romney gained only with Republicans.

[Tcbys]

47. Were doom I tell you Doomed Doomed Doomed :(

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

48. Let's see what the polls say following today's jobs report.

I think the debate will be quickly forgotten.

[Onlooker]

50. I feel more negative about Obama

Before the debates, he joked about his reluctance to practice, and then he comes out on stage and embarrasses himself and by extension his supporters. I was disgusted with his performance, and now with some of my colleagues I'm forced to defend his performance even though I didn't like it.

Some say Obama is arrogant. Well, hopefully his disgraceful performance was a humbling moment for him and he'll spend these next few days doing all he can to better prepare and find his voice. The next time he meets Romney, he needs to win. He needs to show he's the better person.

[Evergreen Emerald]

51. Chill--its common

It is common for challengers to gain in the polls after presidential debates.

[budkin]

52. He's still up after the debate... by 2

And still up in the swing states... Mitt still doesn't have a chance in hell

[Blue Idaho]

53. Inside the margin for error of this poll.

The margin for error of this poll is + - 3.6%

[hlthe2b]

58. Frustration aside, you can not come to a DEMOCRATIC/Progressive website and

advocate you are not going to vote/support our candidates. TOS violation.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=termsofservice

[Jennicut]

59. If you are in a swing state then that is sheer lunacy

Unless you want to be ruled by Repubs.

[uppityperson]

66. You won't vote for someone who is overshown in a debate by a lying smirking asshole?Why are you here

[nc4bo]

67. ......+1! nm

[uppityperson]

70. After all, how someone does in a debate is so much more important than what they do in real life.

I mean, REALLY!!!!1111 If he simply WON'T defend himself against the lying cheating smirking asshole in front of a brazillion people, we should vote for the lying cheating asshole!!!!

incredible.

[WI_DEM]

69. dumbest post of the day. You win the award.

[kaiserhog]

56. There are no sure things, but If Obama were to have a bad day/debate better now than later.

Challengers usually win the first debate. They usually get a bounce. Romney will enjoy a few days of a tied up race (maybe even ahead slightly). However, the fundamentals of this race have not changed and have been reinforced by the jobs report. I still wouldn't trade Obama's position for Romney's.

[fadedrose]

60. Welcome kaiserhog

Lying should be a disqualification just like cheating on a test - so I figure Romney disqualified himself in a stylish way, of course.

Glad you made it here just before an election. Emotions are running high.

You should have been here when Obama and Hillary were running for President. So much tension and temper flares it's a wonder my screen didn't smoke ....

Come see us at Fiction if you're a bookreader.....

Hope you like it here. It gets very addictive.

[Indpndnt]

71. Well put.

Welcome to Du, kaiserhog.

[Cicada]

57. Are online polls accurate?

Didn't Zogby try this method and go up in flames?

How do they select the sample?

[VirginiaTarheel]

62. Does Reuters/Ipsos release polls on weekends?

I thought they took the weekends off as far as releasing new polls.

[DCBob]

64. Not good??

Thats great news to me considering all the hype Romney is getting from the press.

[SoapBox]

65. blah, blah, blah, blah, blah...

LOOK! Shiny Object!

...change in poll.

LOOK! Blue Skies!

...change in poll.

LOOK! A Bug!

...change in poll.

Americans have gotten stoopid.

[WI_DEM]

68. Expect to see Romney in the lead in a couple of days and then his bounce will end and it will slowly

begin to get back to normal.