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floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:05 PM Feb 2016

SC CNN Poll for women 50+ ONLY! Don't be disheartened!

The numbers showing a substantial lead for Hillary in SC are skewed. Please check the details pp33 onwards. There are #'s only for women 50+ in sub urban areas. All other demographics are listed as N/A.

Why someone would release such an incomplete poll is beyond me... not.

Maybe this should be in another discussion thread but it is important to know where these numbers come from for everyone.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-full-poll-results-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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SC CNN Poll for women 50+ ONLY! Don't be disheartened! (Original Post) floppyboo Feb 2016 OP
Okay, so it's unskewing time KingFlorez Feb 2016 #1
That guy still owes me a few thousand dollars. Chichiri Feb 2016 #12
This is not factual bravenak Feb 2016 #2
Sorry, I forgot the link. floppyboo Feb 2016 #5
You are reading it wrong, that's all I meant bravenak Feb 2016 #9
is that your whole explanation?? n/t floppyboo Feb 2016 #14
That is a sufficient explanation bravenak Feb 2016 #16
sufficient perhaps to someone who says 'yes sir' floppyboo Feb 2016 #19
Do you have the link? n/t Lucinda Feb 2016 #3
Link floppyboo Feb 2016 #4
N/A doesn't mean what you think it means thesquanderer Feb 2016 #6
thanks floppyboo Feb 2016 #7
I don't see it in 538's list for SC and they just did an update Lucinda Feb 2016 #10
It's under Opinion Research Corporation. nt Chichiri Feb 2016 #11
Ah cool. Thanks much! Lucinda Feb 2016 #13
The entire Democratic poll consists of just 280 "likely voters". mhatrw Feb 2016 #8
In 2008 43% of the Democratic voters were white, and 55% were black. RDANGELO Feb 2016 #17
This poll is predicting that more than 65% of the Democratic primary voters will be non-white. mhatrw Feb 2016 #18
It also says that 40% are still making up there minds. RDANGELO Feb 2016 #15

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
12. That guy still owes me a few thousand dollars.
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:37 PM
Feb 2016

Maybe I should make a similar bet with some Bernie fans here -- say, a dollar per pledged delegate difference? Could solve all my financial worries in a snap!

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
5. Sorry, I forgot the link.
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:22 PM
Feb 2016

Is that what you meant by not factual, or that CNN is not factual? I don't understand. If I'm reading the poll incorrectly, please educate me.

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
19. sufficient perhaps to someone who says 'yes sir'
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 02:39 PM
Feb 2016

but this is a democratic forum, no? so your paternalistic answer to my request is truly insufficient.
Or perhaps you didn't read my question, which asked for elucidation, in which case why reply? In deed, why am I wasting my time

thesquanderer

(11,965 posts)
6. N/A doesn't mean what you think it means
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:25 PM
Feb 2016

It does not mean that no such people were included in the pool; it just means that not enough of them were included to be able to break them out within a specified margin of error. (This is common usage, but it is also explained in the last paragraph on page 13 at your link.)

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
10. I don't see it in 538's list for SC and they just did an update
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:34 PM
Feb 2016
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/

Part of the reason I don't jump at polls is for weird sampling etc. I think we can get a general sense of what's happening, but I never get too carried away by any of them.

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
13. Ah cool. Thanks much!
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:39 PM
Feb 2016

I dinna make the connection!
They are pretty much in line with the other recent polls.

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
8. The entire Democratic poll consists of just 280 "likely voters".
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:33 PM
Feb 2016


CNN did not disclose the demographic breakdown of the "likely voters" they polled in the polling methodology. Hmmm. I wonder why!

Interestingly enough, Sanders leads by 14% among white voters. Sanders also leads among all voters under 50, but CNN did not see fit to publish this information.

Unweighing the averages, it is clear that the number of non-white voters CNN polled outnumbered the white voters polled by over a 2 to 1 margin. For the 56% of the voters who preferred Clinton supporters, the ratio of non-white voters for white voters was roughly 2.3 to 1. For the 38% of voters who prefered Sanders, the ratio of non-white voters to white voters was roughly 1.8 to 1. That works out to roughly 2.1 non-white voter polled for every white voter poll.

Therefore, this poll's "model" predicts that fewer 1 in 3 of the SC Democratic primary voters will be white. Furthermore, since the white voter category was placed within the margin 8.5% margin of error cutoff and men and the under 50 voter categories were not, this poll's "model" also predicts that fewer than 1 in 3 of the SC Democratic primary voters will be men and fewer than 1 on 3 of the SC Democratic primary voters will be under 50.

RDANGELO

(3,430 posts)
17. In 2008 43% of the Democratic voters were white, and 55% were black.
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 07:04 PM
Feb 2016

In 2004 49% of the Democratic voters were black without Obama.

Can Hillary get the same African American turnout that Obama got.

RDANGELO

(3,430 posts)
15. It also says that 40% are still making up there minds.
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:49 PM
Feb 2016

If this is accurate, there is an awful lot of soft support out there. It's a shame Bernie can't get a debate before this primary.

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