2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver - Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling
Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesdays debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debates immediate aftermath.
The four national tracking polls as published on Sunday were largely unchanged from their Saturday releases. Mr. Romney maintained a 2-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, but President Obamas lead held at 2 points in an online poll published by Ipsos and at 3 points in the Gallup tracking poll. In the RAND Corporations online tracking poll, which lists its results to the decimal place, Mr. Obamas lead declined incrementally, to 3.9 percentage points from 4.4 on Saturday.
Only the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll consists of interviews that were conducted entirely after the debate, but the share of post-debate interviews is now large enough in the other polls that we can start to come to some inferences about the overall magnitude of Mr. Romneys bounce.
My effort to do that is reflected in the chart below. Ive compared the most recent reading in each poll to the average result that the poll showed in the period between the Democratic convention and the Denver debate. Ive also listed the approximate share of interviews in each poll that post-dated the debate.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/oct-7-national-polls-show-signs-of-settling/
budkin
(6,714 posts)This according to Nate Silver a couple weeks ago, so chill the fuck out. He's got this.
RedSpartan
(1,693 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)We need to get that news out as much as possible to get Obama back up in the polls and crush Romney's bump as soon as possible.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)they're the same ones who tell us that he should never fight back, so as not to appear the "angry black man".
Hopefully before I go to my grave we'll get a real fighting Dem with some real Dem advisors to work for.
Democat
(11,617 posts)It's just a matter of time. Those who suffered through the Bush years with disgust will eventually become the leaders of the party.
ThomThom
(1,486 posts)our VP may come out swinging
chillfactor
(7,584 posts)when our Joe trounces lyin' ryan in their debate.....
cheezmaka
(737 posts)which is even MORE good news...
frazzled
(18,402 posts)I'm generally positive about this election, but I never underestimate the capriciousness and gullibility of my fellow American citizens. I wasn't worried right after the debate, but this weekend I started to get weak knees.
Look, the tiny sliver of people who are moveable in this election have a lot of power. And lots of them simply want to vote for the "winner": they heard Romney won (and we stupidly reinforced that notion), and they wanted to move to the winning side. For that reason, I think it's incumbent upon us to keep a positive, supportive, confident attitude throughout the next weeks, and no matter what narrative the media is supporting, we need to be focused on how "great" our president is doing and how his reelection is imminent. It matters.
(Doubts and worries can be expressed to oneself, and criticisms can wait until the Republicans are defeated.)
My measly two cents.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)You had the debate, the jobs numbers, and Obama's fundraising numbers as well.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)I would expect.