2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWOW! Sanders pulls within two and a half % in the aggregation of nationwide polls of likely voters!
Here is the aggregation of all polls (including likely voter polls, registered voter polls, and polls of all adults), which shows Clinton with a slim 7% lead:

Among likely voter polls, registered voter polls, and polls of all adults, the likely voter polls are by far the most accurate (and the polls of all adults are the least accurate). If we consider only the likely voter polls, the gap between Clinton and Sanders narrows to a mere two and a half percent:

Bear in mind that national polls do not correspond to any real election (i.e., there is no national primary), but with Super Tuesday coming up soon, the national polling tread is a good indication that the Sanders campaign is on the right track!
The Nevada polls are also showing an incredibly close race:

Keep up the great work!
jillan
(39,451 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)
TheBluestEye
(97 posts)Nevada is close. Turnout is going to make the difference. Bernie has excited the electorate and they just need to show up and vote.
amborin
(16,631 posts)azmom
(5,208 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)while Hillary's numbers have been jumping all over the place--
sort of like her positions on issues.
Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)Each win will trigger then next one... Hillary is so toast...
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)Sure, Bernie is no Obama, but Hillary is still Hillary.
MisterP
(23,730 posts)he won't tell his backers to fuck off now that he's in the Oval Office, won't set up a "veal pen," won't yell about the GOP and then quietly pass their bills
it's two different sorts of charisma--with Obama he had personal charisma, people lining up and crying openly, trusting him to pass whatever they wanted because he was Obama and they supported him; Sanders's charisma is inverse, people backing him because he doesn't just promise XYZ but delineates the whole system that's blocked XYZ for decades; we're cautious, probing, critical, badly burned by the last guy they gave full benefit of the doubt to: people gave themselves up
Rahm's "icebreaker" was able to call himself a "blank screen," ending up a liberish but still firmly "post-1994" Dem, still obligated to give us TPP and TISA before leaving, putting peace and SS on the table, someone we thought just give you what you wanted because we thought he was pure as the snow; Sanders has an iron ethical record, and that inverts and makes us hold him accountable
Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)that he didn't even WANT to run for President and we end up with as good a prospect for REAL "Hope 'n Change" as we may ever see again.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)secondwind
(16,903 posts)cloudythescribbler
(2,599 posts)They are a RW site (good to know what they're up to) but their aggregation of polls is highly respected:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
The data suggests that the gap is narrowing, but it isn't really possible to claim it's down to 2% nationally yet
I hope that fellow Bernie Sanders supporters don't build up expecations to high, only to have memes a target if expectations not fully met. It looks like NV will be close -- a lot closer than I expected less than a week ago. It still looks like in SC that if Hillary Clinton's lead can be kept to single digits (or if there's an upset Sanderista victory), then the MSM will, after a close vote in NV, really start to treat this election as competitive, which most have yet to seriously do.
The problem is Super Tuesday less than 2 weeks away, the "Who's Bernie Sanders?" problem apparently still remains reportedly widespread (according to Sanders campaign canvassers!) , even in relatively well-organized NV, and since the big win in NH. Obama was for factors mostly specific to his campaign, able to mount the steep climb to Super Tuesday (a real built-in firewall in having it so soon in the season, which progressives over the longer term have to change if future insurgency candidacies will be able to have anything close to a level(ish) playing field w/in the Democratic Party) more easily than is the case with Sanders. (As an Obama supporter I was worried even then, tho Obama came off spectacularly). At any rate, it's important to somehow combat that problem of the mass of non-political junkie voters, getting them out for Bernie. I have made a number of suggestions but would be interested in hearing what other supporters see as climbing this steep hill successfully
farleftlib
(2,125 posts)and Bernie has been doing nothing but going steadily up since he started....
U of M Dem
(154 posts)Have been since Bernie declared.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)You are doing a great job posting these regular (aggregated) updates.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)progressoid
(53,389 posts)He'll never get above 30 percent.
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