Rubio and Cruz both DEFEAT Clinton (by 7% & 4%), but Sanders BEATS Rubio and Cruz (by 3% and 7%)

[Attorney in Texas]

In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the live phone polling was accurate but the robo-phone polling was way off the mark.

Here is an aggregation of all live phone polling of the head-to-head match ups between Clinton and Cruz (Clinton LOSES by 4%):



Here is an aggregation of all live phone polling of the head-to-head match ups between Clinton and Rubio (Clinton LOSES by 7%):



Here is an aggregation of all live phone polling of the head-to-head match ups between Sanders and Cruz (Sanders WINS by 7%):



Here is an aggregation of all live phone polling of the head-to-head match ups between Sanders and Rubio (Sanders WINS by 3%):



Both Clinton and Sanders beat Trump, but Sanders wins by a bigger margin.

We cannot afford to gamble on Clinton's weakness against Rubio and Cruz!

[JRLeft]

1. Well get ready for a severely flawed candidate. Hillary will be the nominee.

[Attorney in Texas]

2. If they nominate Trump, we have a shot with either candidate, but only Sanders can beat Cruz & Rubio

so I suppose you are saying get ready for President Rubio or President Cruz

[TCJ70]

3. I really don't see a way the Republicans let Trump be their nominee...

...and in that even he's such a narcissist he may go third party just to spite them...or because he really thinks he's that great. Either way, we're good.

Hillary is definitely the weaker of our two candidates, though.

[Skwmom]

12. Trump would beat Clinton. n/t

[HooptieWagon]

30. Head to head, I agree.

Even republicans that can't stand Trump will turn out in droves to vote against Hillary. She will lose the independant vote. And the polls don't reflect the number of Dems who will sit on their hands.
A third party candidate that splits the republican vote would be Hillary's only chance. That's how Bill won in 92.

[hifiguy]

45. Why can't people get this simple goddamn truth through their thick skulls:

"Even republicans that can't stand Trump will turn out in droves to vote against Hillary."

[HooptieWagon]

48. If it's Hillary vs. Trump, Jill Stein will get a surprising number of votes.

Trump will win because the DNCorporatists shoved a bad candidate down our throats.

[hifiguy]

49. The Dems will get a pasting like the Repigs got in 1964.

Of course the liberals will be blamed, never Herself, and the party will be winched further rightward by the billionaire class. Make book on it.

[HooptieWagon]

50. Oh, you can bet on them screaming and blaming the left.

And then they'll call us 'retards' like Rahm did, make zero concessions to our issues, and threaten and demand our votes again in 4 years. Fuck 'em. If they want our votes, they goddamn well better listen to us and earn them.

[karynnj]

35. and it would be painful to watch if he follows his Jeb! attack mode

Imagine the REPUBLICAN blaming her for Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Imagine him blaming her for the removal of Glass/Stegall. Imagine him blaming her for no child left behind (She was on the HELP committee that wrote it.) Imagine him bringing out all the allegations on Bill Clinton - ignoring his own history.

Please no HRC/Trump.

[Skwmom]

41. He will hammer her on trade and bring voters out in droves.

[Herman4747]

13. Some people remain pessimistic. n/t

[Dawgs]

10. Yep. Then it will be President Rubio for at least four years.

America will never learn.

[6chars]

20. don't be silly

[Robbins]

18. I don't care

democratic party can go to hell if they force clinton on us.No way will i vote if she is nominee.

[Gothmog]

4. Hypothetical match up polls are worthless and should not be relied for anything

Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010

The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.

No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race.

[Attorney in Texas]

6. Harry also predicted that Jeb would be the nominee by now and Trump was capped at 20%

[Skwmom]

25. We can fight lies against Sanders we can't fight the truth against Clinton. n/t

[Gothmog]

34. What lies? Sanders supporters are citing worthless polls to show that Sanders is viable

Match up polling at this stage is worthless and does not show that Sanders is viable at all

[mhatrw]

40. Yes. All that matters is hypothetical pro-Clinton/anti-Sanders opinions with ZERO empirical backing!

[Gothmog]

5. Bernie Sanders says he polls better against GOP candidates than Hillary Clinton

While I still think that these polls are worthless, I am amused to see that Sanders was found to be misrepresenting these polls and that in fact his claim is not true http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jan/26/bernie-s/bernie-sanders-says-he-polls-better-against-gop-ca/

In the runup to the Iowa caucus, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has repeatedly said he has a better chance of beating the eventual Republican nominee in the Nov. 8 general election than fellow Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

"Almost all of the polls that -- and polls are polls, they go up, they go down -- but almost all of the polls that have come out suggest that I am a much stronger candidate against the Republicans than is Hillary Clinton," he told voters during a Jan. 19 town hall meeting in Underwood, Iowa.

We took a look at the various national surveys, as compiled by RealClearPolitics and PollingReport.com to see how that assertion stacks up against the data.....

Our ruling

Sanders said, "Almost all of the polls that have come out suggest that I am a much stronger candidate against the Republicans than is Hillary Clinton."

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released before Sanders' statement supports his claim for Trump, but it has no data against Cruz or Rubio. Earlier polls say he doesn't outperform Clinton at all against Cruz, Rubio or Bush, and the narrow races combined with the margins of error make his contention even more dubious.

Beating Clinton in only two of eight hypothetical matchups is far from "almost all."

The statement is not accurate, so we rate it False.

[Uncle Joe]

16. Politifact is making a false statement but it's not the first time in regards to their coverage of

Bernie's claims.

In every case Bernie outperforms Hillary with the exception of Carson in which case they were tied.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html



PollsElection 2016VideoWritersMore



Polls
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Try 'Iowa,' or 'Obama'

2016 Presidential Race
12.9k Shares
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 1/4 - 2/15 -- -- 46.2 42.8 Clinton +3.4
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 43 45 Trump +2
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 1125 RV 2.9 46 41 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 47 40 Clinton +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/9 - 1/13 800 RV 3.5 51 41 Clinton +10
FOX News 1/4 - 1/7 1006 RV 3.0 44 47 Trump +3
All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton
Poll Date Sample MoE
Cruz (R)
Clinton (D)
Spread
RCP Average 1/4 - 2/15 -- -- 45.8 45.4 Cruz +0.4
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 45 44 Cruz +1
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 1125 RV 2.9 45 45 Tie
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 44 46 Clinton +2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/9 - 1/13 800 RV 3.5 45 49 Clinton +4
FOX News 1/4 - 1/7 1006 RV 3.0 50 43 Cruz +7
All General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton Polling Data


General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton
Poll Date Sample MoE
Rubio (R)
Clinton (D)
Spread
RCP Average 1/4 - 2/15 -- -- 47.6 43.0 Rubio +4.6
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 48 42 Rubio +6
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 1125 RV 2.9 48 41 Rubio +7
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 46 44 Rubio +2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/9 - 1/13 800 RV 3.5 46 47 Clinton +1
FOX News 1/4 - 1/7 1006 RV 3.0 50 41 Rubio +9
All General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Carson vs. Clinton
Poll Date Sample
Clinton (D)
Carson (R)
Spread
RCP Average 12/6 - 2/3 -- 46.3 45.0 Clinton +1.3
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 47 44 Clinton +3
FOX News 12/16 - 12/17 1013 RV 46 44 Clinton +2
NBC/WSJ 12/6 - 12/9 849 RV 46 47 Carson +1
All General Election: Carson vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Bush vs. Clinton
Poll Date Sample
Clinton (D)
Bush (R)
Spread
RCP Average 11/27 - 2/3 -- 46.3 43.3 Clinton +3.0
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 46 39 Clinton +7
FOX News 1/4 - 1/7 1006 RV 44 44 Tie
CNN/ORC 11/27 - 12/1 930 RV 49 47 Clinton +2
All General Election: Bush vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Trump vs. Sanders
Poll Date Sample MoE
Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 1/9 - 2/15 -- -- 48.0 41.0 Sanders +7.0
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 43 44 Trump +1
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 46 42 Sanders +4
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 1125 RV 2.9 49 39 Sanders +10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/9 - 1/13 800 RV 3.5 54 39 Sanders +15
All General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Polling Data

General Election: Rubio vs. Sanders
Poll Date Sample MoE
Rubio (R)
Sanders (D)
Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/15 -- -- 44.7 42.7 Rubio +2.0
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 46 42 Rubio +4
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 1125 RV 2.9 43 43 Tie
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 45 43 Rubio +2
All General Election: Rubio vs. Sanders Polling Data

General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders
Poll Date Sample MoE
Sanders (D)
Cruz (R)
Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/15 -- -- 44.7 42.0 Sanders +2.7
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 44 42 Sanders +2
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 1125 RV 2.9 46 42 Sanders +4
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 44 42 Sanders +2
All General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders Polling Data

General Election: Carson vs. Sanders
Poll Date Sample MoE
Sanders (D)
Carson (R)
Spread
RCP Average 10/29 - 2/3 -- -- 45.3 44.0 Sanders +1.3
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 44 44 Tie
Quinnipiac 11/23 - 11/30 1473 RV 2.6 47 41 Sanders +6
McClatchy/Marist 10/29 - 11/4 540 RV 4.2 45 47 Carson +2
All General Election: Carson vs. Sanders Polling Data

General Election: Bush vs. Sanders
Poll Date Sample
Sanders (D)
Bush (R)
Spread
RCP Average 9/17 - 2/3 -- 47.0 41.7 Sanders +5.3
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 46 40 Sanders +6
McClatchy/Marist 10/29 - 11/4 540 RV 51 41 Sanders +10
Quinnipiac 9/17 - 9/21 1574 RV 44 44 Tie
All General Election: Bush vs. Sanders Polling Data

[Gothmog]

7. Democrats would be insane to nominate Sanders

Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.

The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.”

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.

[Skwmom]

26. There is all that NEW stuff they can use against Clinton and it makes the old stuff believable. n/t

[Gothmog]

33. You do realize that Rove is already throwing everything he has against Clinton in the primaries

Rove has determined that Sanders would be the weakest possible Democratic nominee and so has been running negative ads against Clinton in Iowa, NH and Nevada. For example, the ads in Iowa were normal Karl Rove lies http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-flattered-karl-rove-attack-ad/story?id=36343405

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laughed off a new attack ad from a Republican super PAC run by Karl Rove during an interview Sunday on “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos.

The web spot, titled “Hillary’s Bull Market,” was launched by American Crossroads, which is run by the Republican strategist and former President George W. Bush adviser. After watching the ad for the first time during her interview on “This Week,” Clinton just smiled.

“I think it shows how desperate the Republicans are to prevent me from becoming the nominee,” Clinton said about the ad, which goes after her ties to Wall Street. “I find that, in a perverse way, an incredibly flattering comment on their anxiety, because they know that not only will I stand up for what the country needs, I will take it to the Republicans.”

In Nevada, Rove is accusing Clinton of being anti-immigrant http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269460-rove-super-pac-links-clinton-to-trump-on-immigration-in

The super-PAC founded by Republican operative Karl Rove is running a provocative new attack ad in Nevada designed to paint Hillary Clinton as anti-immigrant.

American Crossroads is launching a digital ad titled "Hillary's Wall" that attempts to tie some of Clinton's harsher past remarks about immigration to those of Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner.
In one scene in the commercial, influential Univision anchor Jorge Ramos asks Clinton, "What's the difference between your idea and Donald Trump's idea on building a wall?"

Preceding that moment are clips - all subtitled in Spanish - that show Clinton making tough comments about immigration that could now alienate large sections of the Democratic base.

Sanders would be a far weaker general election candidate which is why Rove is targeting Clinton.

What more do you think that Rove has to throw at Clinton that he has not used so far in Iowa. Clinton is surviving the worse that Rove can throw at her and is still doing well in these races. Again, the claims that Rove is holding back on Clinton is amusing.

Why do you think that Rove is spending so much to attack Clinton in these primaries?

[Skwmom]

37. If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you....

[Gothmog]

39. I feel the same way about the Sanders revolution

[Gothmog]

42. Give a little thought to what a GOP campaign against Bernie Sanders might look like

Sanders is very very vulnerable to negative ads http://www.vox.com/2016/2/3/10903404/gop-campaign-against-sanders

Sanders has some pretty glaring vulnerabilities

I'm not sure I have the requisite killer instinct to fully imagine how the GOP will play a Sanders campaign. But consider just this low-hanging fruit:

Sanders would be the oldest president ever to take office — older than John McCain, who faced serious questions about this in 2008.

Sanders is a socialist. "No, no," you explain, "it's democratic socialist, like in Denmark." I'm sure GOP attack ads will take that distinction into careful consideration.

Sanders explicitly wants to raise taxes, and not only on the rich.

That's just the obvious stuff. And he has barely been hit on any of it so far.

I have no real way of knowing whether Sanders and his advisers appreciate what's coming if he wins the nomination, or whether they have a serious plan to deal with it, something beyond hoping a political revolution will drown it out.

But at least based on my experience, the Bernie legions are not prepared. They seem convinced that the white working class would rally to the flag of democratic socialism. And they are in a state of perpetual umbrage that Sanders isn't receiving the respect he's due, that he's facing even mild attacks from Clinton's camp.

You are free to ignore these weaknesses. The concept of raising taxes is such a popular election year concept. Just ask President Mondale

[Gothmog]

8. Are Sanders general election polls fools gold?

These polls are worthless because Sanders has not been vetted by the media http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-three-weeks-go-three-margin-error-races-n493946

Not surprisingly, Sanders' campaign is touting those general-election numbers. "There was fresh evidence on Sunday that confirms Bernie Sanders would be the most electable Democratic Party nominee for president because he performs much better than Hillary Clinton," the campaign blasted out to reporters yesterday. But here is a legitimate question to ask: Outside of maybe New Hampshire (where Sanders enjoys a geographic advantage), are Sanders' general-election numbers fool's gold? When is the last time you've seen national Republicans issue even a press release on Sanders? Given the back-and-forth over Bill Clinton's past -- and given Sanders calling Bill Clinton's behavior "disgraceful" -- when is the last time anyone has brought up the candidate's 1972 essay about a woman fantasizing about "being raped by three men simultaneously"? Bottom line: It's always instructive to take general-election polling with a grain of salt, especially 300 days before the general election. And that's particularly true for a candidate who hasn't actually gone through the same wringer the other candidates have.

These match up polls are not meaningful at this stage

[Gothmog]

9. Here are some warnings from Nate Silver's 538 site on match up polling

Look at warning number 3

[Attorney in Texas]

11. Silver predicted Trump to win Iowa, Rubio to come in 2nd in NH, and underestimated Sanders in both

[jcgoldie]

17. odds of winning are not the same as vote percentages

He correctly predicted Clinton winning Iowa and Sanders winning New Hampshire.

[Attorney in Texas]

22. He also predicted voting percentages (in addition to odds of winning). he was way off in Iowa and NH

Silver gave himself three bites at the prediction apple: (1) he picked polls-only winner, (2) he picked polls-plus-other-data winner, and (3) he offered a polling forecast.

In Iowa, Silver's polling forecast had Clinton 4.5% ahead (48.1% to 43.6%). In New Hampshire, Silver has Sanders winning by 14.4% (54.9% to 40.5%). Neither effort was especially close to the mark.

[metroins]

28. I agree

Polls and guesses are useless during primaries.

[cosmicone]

14. Meh ... those polls are meaningless. n/t

[Ferd Berfel]

15. The DNC, HIllary and her donors don't give a rats ass about that

It's Her turn you know.

[AZ Progressive]

19. Its simple: Bernie attracts more independents, Hillary doesn't

[jcgoldie]

21. Right that makes sense because...

... he's much more of a pure progressive and further left... oh wait...

[panader0]

23. Many independents are more progressive than Democrats.

[HooptieWagon]

31. The vast majority of Independants arent centrists.

There is no middle. There's not much space between Clinton and Bush for Independants to stake their claim. The majority of Independants are to the left and right of the party establishments. Probably a bit more on the left, as both party establishments have moved right of center.

[Vote2016]

24. kicked and rec'd

[metroins]

27. Trump will be their nominee

And I think Hillary or Bernie can beat an R.

[thereismore]

29. Down is Hillary's pattern everywhere. nt

[HooptieWagon]

32. Every race she's run she starts out high and drops.

[amborin]

36. workers have spoken: if Bernie doesn't top the tix, they will vote Trump

[Nanjeanne]

38. but . . .

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

[hifiguy]

43. It can't be true.

All of the Fan Club says so. Would they lie?

If Herself is the nominee the Democratic Party will be on the receiving end of a pasting like the Repigs got in 1964. The explosion of the Hindenburg will seem a damp squib in comparison.

And then liberals, not Herself, will be blamed and the party taken several notches further to the right.

Bank on it.

[restorefreedom]

44. the boy wonder will be the toughest

for either of them to beat. but i do believe bernie could kick the snot out of that little....well, snot.

[hifiguy]

46. Is it just me or is there something of Eddie Haskell about Rubio?

Snott Walker owned that franchise, but Rubio seems to be picking up some of his long-departed slack.

[restorefreedom]

47. yes, there is....something

and he is just a leeetle too glib, trying to be the gop obama

[dchill]

51. K&R!

Wake up, all you Democrats!

[AzDar]

52. It's simple, really... If Clinton is the Nominee... we LOSE. On many, many levels.

Full Stop.

[katsy]

53. I support Bernie Sanders but there is no

Universe in which cruz or rubio would win the election over Hillary.

She would wipe them out in any and every debate in any given topic and there is no fucking way independents would choose cruz, and his theocratic lunacy, over an experienced Hillary. Rubio? What a joke he is. He can regurgitate memorized speeches, Hillary would wipe the floor with his ass. Not. Happening. Ever.

Stupid poll.