2016 Postmortem
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How much difference did the Pew poll make? We had Romney win % rising to 24.4% from 21.6% today. Without Pew, he'd have made no gain at all.
So the Pew poll really is a huge data point for Romney. But his polling today was pretty mediocre without it
I wonder if all of the people here that had heart attacks over Romney's today feel silly now?
flamingdem
(39,332 posts)let's just go with that!
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)So much drama over one poll. A poll that was likely an outlier.
Haywood Brothers
(19 posts)Sometimes you get these flukey jumps -- Silver's analysis, thank goodness, is even-handed. His model works; I take comfort in his unaltered overall prediction for Obama.
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)I'm really curious as to what we'll see at 538 tomorrow night, what with the Romney-in-lead PPP poll coming out, along with the shift to an LV model in Gallup tracking virtually guaranteeing that Obama's lead will be slashed if not entirely wiped-out. Will the transitory nature of those two be noted, or will they simply be considered valid data points?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Romney will be in the lead in PPP?
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Ya'think RV is the better.
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)in the polls, during the time i fixed and ate dinner.
i left the computer and obama was up 5 points. i returned and romney was up 12.
my wife was upset by the news but i was unwilling to accept such a swing.
i'm glad to see this interpretation of pew's numbers.
doc03
(35,389 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)In the 2008 primaries, 2008 general election (president, house, senate, and governor), 2010 elections, and the 2012 republican primaries. He is extremely good at statistical analysis.
doc03
(35,389 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Zen Democrat
(5,901 posts)He predicted every state correctly, with the exception of Indiana (1% win for Obama). He predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races. He's gone from Daily Kos to the NY Times.
doc03
(35,389 posts)patrice
(47,992 posts)ideologies do to some people on "the Left" and on the Reich.
MFM008
(19,823 posts)im cutting the rope around my neck.
Cha
(297,809 posts)Did Romney's debate performance pluck some Democratic support away from Obama? Nope. The president's lead is virtually unchanged within his own party, from 93-5 in September to 94-5 now.
Did Romney strengthen himself among Republicans? Hardly, these numbers shifted from 92-5 to 91-7.
Did Romney achieve a major breakthrough among Independents? Only if you consider a 2-3 point shift within each candidate major (from Obama leading 45-44 to Romney ahead 46-42).
<...>
In other words, we've learned something we should already have known. That if the electorate on Nov. 6 is 3 percentage points more
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141808/-Pew-Poll-states-the-obvious-If-actual-electorate-is-R-3-Obama-loses
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1496439
TroyD
(4,551 posts)There is a lot at stake here, and people have the right to be nervous about the possibility of a pathological liar and sociopath becoming President.
Of course we shouldn't run screaming through the streets at the fact that Obama's numbers have come down, but neither should we laugh it off.
The next month needs to be mistake-free and a good one for Obama.
We don't want that vile individual on the other side making any more progress.
zentrum
(9,865 posts)I wasn't able to sleep the night of the debate. There's way too much at stake.
We need a mistake-free month now.