Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBTRTN's Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R) Predictions
Can they keep the winning streak of predictions alive?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/nevada-d-and-south-carolina-r.html
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
3 replies, 890 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (2)
ReplyReply to this post
3 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
BTRTN's Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R) Predictions (Original Post)
tgards79
Feb 2016
OP
flor-de-jasmim
(2,125 posts)1. Their last chart needs reviewing!
tgards79
(1,415 posts)2. Fixed
Thanks!
demwing
(16,916 posts)3. You should name your site "BTGTW"
For "Born to Guess the Winner" because your numbers were wrong in every case, so far.
Tom (assume that's you, right?) had Iowa at :
Clinton - 50%
Sander - 46%
That's a 4 point spread. In reality, IA was a dead heat, solved by handfuls of coin tosses that could have gone either way.
That wasn't a part of your numbers running, as evidenced by your notoriously inaccurate prediction:
Sanders, of course, is relying on Obama-esque turnout to bring him home. But Obama at this stage of the game in 2008 was in a virtual dead-heat with both Clinton and Edwards, and ultimately won by 8 points over both of them. Sanders would need to pull off similar turnout magic just to pull even with Clinton, and I dont see that happening.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/iowa-prediction-cruz-will-win-three-way.html
You had New Hampshire as follows:
Sanders - 57
Clinton - 43
A 14% spread.Essentially the same as the RCP Average (13.3%):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
Again, you guessed the winner, but not the numbers.
The actual outcome was:
Sanders - 60
Clinton - 38
You were off by a full 8%!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/btrtn-new-hampshire-results-trump.html
You consistently inflate Hillary's numbers, and underestimate Bernie's. That's not what I would expect from someone who is "BTRTN."