Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
3 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
BTRTN's Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R) Predictions (Original Post) tgards79 Feb 2016 OP
Their last chart needs reviewing! flor-de-jasmim Feb 2016 #1
Fixed tgards79 Feb 2016 #2
You should name your site "BTGTW" demwing Feb 2016 #3
 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
3. You should name your site "BTGTW"
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:04 AM
Feb 2016

For "Born to Guess the Winner" because your numbers were wrong in every case, so far.

Tom (assume that's you, right?) had Iowa at :

Clinton - 50%
Sander - 46%

That's a 4 point spread. In reality, IA was a dead heat, solved by handfuls of coin tosses that could have gone either way.

That wasn't a part of your numbers running, as evidenced by your notoriously inaccurate prediction:

Sanders, of course, is relying on Obama-esque turnout to bring him home. But Obama at this stage of the game in 2008 was in a virtual dead-heat with both Clinton and Edwards, and ultimately won by 8 points over both of them. Sanders would need to pull off similar turnout magic just to pull even with Clinton, and I don’t see that happening.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/iowa-prediction-cruz-will-win-three-way.html

You had New Hampshire as follows:

Sanders - 57
Clinton - 43

A 14% spread.Essentially the same as the RCP Average (13.3%):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

Again, you guessed the winner, but not the numbers.

The actual outcome was:

Sanders - 60
Clinton - 38

You were off by a full 8%!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/btrtn-new-hampshire-results-trump.html

You consistently inflate Hillary's numbers, and underestimate Bernie's. That's not what I would expect from someone who is "BTRTN."
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»BTRTN's Nevada (D) and So...