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mzmolly

(50,985 posts)
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:18 PM Oct 2012

Obama Coming Back Among Registered Voters - Gallup

Gallup started tracking likely voters' preferences on Oct. 1 and will continue to report daily both registered voter and likely voter results in seven-day rolling averages leading up to the election.

Obama Coming Back Among Registered Voters

Obama's slight 49% to 46% seven-day lead among registered voters is just about where it was in the seven days prior to the debate. This trend suggests that Romney's impressive debate performance -- 72% of debate watchers said he did the better job -- may not have a lasting impact. Additionally, Friday's generally positive jobs report from the government, showing that unemployment fell below 8% for the first time since January 2009, may have helped Obama's standing.

Although Gallup's main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the immediate three days that followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking.

Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading.



More at - http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx


21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Obama Coming Back Among Registered Voters - Gallup (Original Post) mzmolly Oct 2012 OP
Thanks for passing that along. Eom. My Pet Goat Oct 2012 #1
I'm really pissed off that I allowed myself to get caught up in so many Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #2
I go from site to site in search of good news for over two hours. Time to win this thing...... SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #17
Was this written yesterday? FBaggins Oct 2012 #3
Nope. It was published today. mzmolly Oct 2012 #5
How do they run a story about the president "coming back"... FBaggins Oct 2012 #7
The title is mine. Read the story for more info. The 2 point loss is from a seven day average. mzmolly Oct 2012 #8
More - mzmolly Oct 2012 #12
Happy Happy Joy Joy SunSeeker Oct 2012 #4
. mzmolly Oct 2012 #9
Good. Maybe that will stop some of the hand-wringing. Liberal Veteran Oct 2012 #6
That, and the fact that (7 day average) polls are A) a bit behind mzmolly Oct 2012 #10
Stake? Hell, it's their BREAD and BUTTER!!! They want a tight race so they can sell ads, ads, and MADem Oct 2012 #15
Yay. Love It! Liberalynn Oct 2012 #11
TNR covering this now: mzmolly Oct 2012 #13
Thank you! SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #16
I've got a strategy for the Obama team. SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #14
And the comeback will be so quick, we'll forget about bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #18
Thanks for the Encouraging news, mzmolly! Here's an inspiring pic from today in Ohio.. Cha Oct 2012 #19
Very encouraging! mzmolly Oct 2012 #20
I need this stapled to my forehead FLyellowdog Oct 2012 #21

Baitball Blogger

(46,698 posts)
2. I'm really pissed off that I allowed myself to get caught up in so many
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:24 PM
Oct 2012

people's concern. Lost a productive morning.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
3. Was this written yesterday?
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:25 PM
Oct 2012

The President fell (net) two points in the most recent RV results.

More importantly... there's little point in talking about RVs much longer.

mzmolly

(50,985 posts)
5. Nope. It was published today.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:28 PM
Oct 2012

Gallup has denoted why discussing RV's is still important. Thus the thread.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
7. How do they run a story about the president "coming back"...
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:33 PM
Oct 2012

...on a day when they say he lost two points by that measure?

The jump in the other direction was likely a rounding issue (unlikely to actually be a 2-point jump either way), but it still implies that Monday's data was worse than last Monday's.

mzmolly

(50,985 posts)
8. The title is mine. Read the story for more info. The 2 point loss is from a seven day average.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:36 PM
Oct 2012

More recent polls, show a "come back" so to speak. Reading the link should clear up any confusion you have.

Here is the relevant part, once again:

Although Gallup's main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the immediate three days that followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking.

Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading.

Liberal Veteran

(22,239 posts)
6. Good. Maybe that will stop some of the hand-wringing.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:30 PM
Oct 2012

I wish people would keep in mind the media has a stake in a tight race story.

mzmolly

(50,985 posts)
10. That, and the fact that (7 day average) polls are A) a bit behind
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:40 PM
Oct 2012

and B) not that relevant unless the trend lingers. .. Though it is frightening to consider an Obama loss.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
15. Stake? Hell, it's their BREAD and BUTTER!!! They want a tight race so they can sell ads, ads, and
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:19 PM
Oct 2012

MORE ads!

A blowout would send all that national money to local races, and the networks would not see the benefit.

They want that PAC money, that candidate money, that special interest money...they want the CASH.

The word has gone forth, too--the talking heads have their marching orders...

SleeplessinSoCal

(9,110 posts)
14. I've got a strategy for the Obama team.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:17 PM
Oct 2012

It would be best suited to Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Florida.

Romney can't be trusted, we know that. Everyone knows that. He's a flip-flopper. But one thing we know is that he wants a business model presidency. That should do it for Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. Bottom line legislation isn't good for them. Florida needs a major push in the direction of Medicare reality. Romney's down there misrepresenting Obama's cuts. And he's not being honest about the changes they would make almost immediately. A huge push of thoughtful, gentle truth telling to Florida seniors on Medicare and Obamacare could win Florida.

bushisanidiot

(8,064 posts)
18. And the comeback will be so quick, we'll forget about
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:08 PM
Oct 2012

romney's little blip of a "bump" that only last a few days.

Cha

(297,123 posts)
19. Thanks for the Encouraging news, mzmolly! Here's an inspiring pic from today in Ohio..
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:16 PM
Oct 2012


Ohio State University, Oct 9

http://theobamadiary.com/

Happy Birthday John Lennon~

FLyellowdog

(4,276 posts)
21. I need this stapled to my forehead
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:51 PM
Oct 2012

because all these other downer posts are breaking my heart. I come to DU to be uplifted and energized but too many posters are calling doom and gloom and I simply cannot stand it.

At this stage of the game my anxiety level has gone through the roof and I'm almost to the point of dropping off the edge of the Earth. Am I the only one who feels this way?

I just want good news....please....just good news. OK? OK.

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