2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Folks - Things still look up, and this is why
Contrary to popular opinion Caucus favor Clinton not Sanders. The meme going around is that only most passionate people go to these things, but the reality is these things bring out the most politically active people and the most reliable voters (OLD PEOPLE). Is it any wonder Clinton's two victories so far in Caucus states?
Look at Iowa exit poll. 28% of the voters were 65+. In Nevada, another 28%. How about NH which was primary? Just 18%. That is huge difference given how much Sanders loses to those older voters. If this was primary, you would have higher turnout, and more voters less than 65+. These 65+ people will vote no matter what. Your average 35 year old is not going to caucus that could take 2-3 hours of their time.
South Carolina will be tough along with other south states. The good news is if Sanders can keep his current margins with young voters, whites/latinos, he should be in good shape going forward.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)remote, perhaps, but still looming out there
californiabernin
(421 posts)Response to kcjohn1 (Original post)
snagglepuss This message was self-deleted by its author.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)caucus states are lost cause for bernie.that alone means it's over.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)Even Nate who has not believed in Sanders candicancy thinks he wins the remaining caucus. Here is the list.
Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington and Wyoming
I believe polls already show Sanders leading Alaska, Colorado (close), Maine, Minnesota, and Washington. Most of these are predominately white, and unlike Iowa, Clinton does not have the organization to counter Sanders enthusiasm/ground support.