The electability issue goes to Bernie (if that matters at all): latest poll TYT video

[Waiting For Everyman]

Cenk Uygar dissects the latest national poll numbers, showing Hillary beats Trump by only 1 point and LOSES to all the other Repubs. Bernie BEATS ALL the Repubs. Does that matter?

I got your electability right here, and this is numbers saying so not some biased person:

All Dems should see this. If HRC supporters see this and still don't care, that's one thing; but that's certainly better than being uninformed and walking into a crushing defeat in the General.

[libdem4life]

1. How can this be? Must be the Democrats that want the establishment.

The Republicans surely don't and are ahead of the times now the electorate wants CHANGE? Hopefully Bernie will not stop thinking this is a gentlemen/gentlewoman process. All he has to do is to bring up her record...over and over and over again. No more Mr. Nice Guy, please Bernie. The stakes are too huge.

Trump is saying what many want to hear, and I think Democrats too...sick and tired...enough is enough. And Trump will beat Hillary. He'll not hesitate for a moment to go anywhere he pleases, including the Clinton Foundation, the hawk title, and her SOS shenanigans. The flip-flops and other stuff are old news. This, people have not heard or paid attention to, because of the kid gloves pro-corporatists in the Democratic party. I have mixed feelings about letting these things lie in wait...if she wins, that is.The country is demanding a shake-up ... non-establishment...I pray it's Bernie rather than Trump.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Res ipsa loquitur

All Dems should see this. If HRC supporters see this and still don't care, that's one thing; but that's certainly better than being uninformed and walking into a crushing defeat in the General

The peer reviewed research suggests asking voters who they think will win is the best predictor of electoral success, ergo:

Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

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The peer reviewed reviewed research also suggests predictions/gaming markets yield accurate forecasts:

Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

Hillary Clinton is a 10/11 favorite at the offshore betting sites and the VT senator is a 7-1 underdog


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner


If you bet on Hillary you have to put up $1,100 to win $1,000.00

If you bet on Bernie you have to put up $145.00 to win $1,000.00.



In closing, the peer reviewed research suggest polling, months out from an election are the least efficacious method of predicting electoral results, ergo:

Trial-heat polls, hereafter simply referred to as polls, ask respondents for whom they
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions.

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf