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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 12:31 PM Feb 2016

The list grows! Sanders leads Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Vermont, and is

ahead in the betting market for Minnesota, and the polls are closing and tight in Oklahoma, Missouri, Wisconsin, and beyond!

Alaska - (Sanders 48%, Clinton 34%)

Colorado
- (Sanders 49%, Clinton 43%)

Maine - (Sanders 56%, Clinton 41%)

Massachusetts - (Sanders 47.5%, Clinton 44%)

Minnesota - (Sanders 59% chance, Clinton 41% chance)

Missouri - (Clinton 47%, Sanders 42%)

Oklahoma - (Clinton 46%, Sanders 44%)

Vermont - (Sanders 83%, Clinton 9%)

West Virginia - (Sanders 57%, Clinton 29%)

Wisconsin - (Clinton 45%, Sanders 43.5%)

The race also looks favorable in Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, Utah, Hawaii, and Arizona.

This list is growing! Keep fighting! Keep donating! Keep phone banking!
142 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The list grows! Sanders leads Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Vermont, and is (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 OP
Thanks! cali Feb 2016 #1
Sounds like Tuesday will be Super for real Democrats! eom Betty Karlson Feb 2016 #2
Clinton will perform well in the Confederacy red states and Arkansas-bordering states (except she Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #6
This is lost on some artislife Feb 2016 #7
But He'll Need Money To Continue To Fund His Effort...... global1 Feb 2016 #9
Measured donations demwing Feb 2016 #10
+1 and hopfully beyond n/t ejbr Feb 2016 #16
+1 Go Vols Feb 2016 #103
+1 daleanime Feb 2016 #13
No worries, I will. Duval Feb 2016 #17
I do Jenny_92808 Feb 2016 #129
yes we know what you think of the states where blacks dominate our party dsc Feb 2016 #37
It's not racial; it's cultural. DC has over 50% African American voters but it's not Republican. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #62
I'm glad you backed this up beltanefauve Feb 2016 #68
and when she wins those states I am sure you will find a way to denegrate them to dsc Feb 2016 #95
The way you switched from mind reading to SwampG8r Feb 2016 #100
Too bad no more DUzys. I would have voted for that one! Elmer S. E. Dump Feb 2016 #104
Such an excellent post. nt ALBliberal Feb 2016 #111
It's sad that you know more about jumping to that conclusion than... MrMickeysMom Feb 2016 #131
Darn right! There's tremendous energy & we have a Long way to go! appalachiablue Feb 2016 #45
I love how you put it "confederacy red states" book_worm Feb 2016 #49
The Deep South states of the old confederacy are going to vote Republican in the GE. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #88
Central illinois timmymoff Feb 2016 #105
Not all AA's vote. Not all AA's are Democrats. I know AA's that support Carson. YOHABLO Feb 2016 #117
...and which of those will Hillary win in the GE? You know, the election that counts. bvar22 Feb 2016 #107
That is an interesting angle nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #113
Only in states with AA populations are equal to or higher than 15% of total population hoosierlib Feb 2016 #58
Race is not the factor. New York is about 1/5th African American, and it should be a close primary, Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #96
Excellent framing of your reply. Thank you! ALBliberal Feb 2016 #112
Bernie has been gaining on every demographic. Nyan Feb 2016 #132
Agreed...he just doedn't have enough time to a difference in those states... hoosierlib Feb 2016 #136
Great news! n/t dragonfly301 Feb 2016 #3
Kickin' with gusto! Faux pas Feb 2016 #4
Excellent! amborin Feb 2016 #5
Keep donating and fighting! PonyUp Feb 2016 #8
that's deadly EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #29
Only place I have seen this is here: PonyUp Feb 2016 #39
I may EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #50
Let me know if you do! cui bono Feb 2016 #134
You're missing one CH. Elmer S. E. Dump Feb 2016 #106
W00T!!!! MissDeeds Feb 2016 #11
kick kgnu_fan Feb 2016 #12
Unfortunately only 5 of those primaries will occur on or before Super Tuesday 3/1 Fla Dem Feb 2016 #14
How many of these states (outside of MA) have been sadoldgirl Feb 2016 #21
And?? dana_b Feb 2016 #25
if you believe your own nonsense about Clinton winning Colorado, you can win a fortune in the Vote2016 Feb 2016 #33
Bernie is in this until the convention and so are his supporters. liberal_at_heart Feb 2016 #73
Then what happens if Bernie doesn't get the nomination? Pick up your blocks and Fla Dem Feb 2016 #138
Thanks for posting this. leftcoastmountains Feb 2016 #15
Once we start having primaries, Clinton is going to get shellacked Matariki Feb 2016 #18
Lovely sources... again! OilemFirchen Feb 2016 #19
This guy loves Overtime Politics. DCBob Feb 2016 #24
It was also hilariously wrong about Nevada. NuclearDem Feb 2016 #27
I suspect they are a bogus operation trying to influence voters. DCBob Feb 2016 #31
It's a couple of amateurs in Australia. Codeine Feb 2016 #36
Yep. OilemFirchen Feb 2016 #30
Yayyyy! K&R Duval Feb 2016 #20
a LOT to look forward to! dana_b Feb 2016 #22
Go Bernie!!! erlewyne Feb 2016 #23
me2 BERNIE 840high Feb 2016 #102
wooooooooooot! EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #26
K & R! TIME TO PANIC Feb 2016 #28
That list doesn't look that promising frazzled Feb 2016 #32
but its not winner take all restorefreedom Feb 2016 #57
It was a close race in 2008 frazzled Feb 2016 #75
I'll wait and see what RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #34
"Overtime Politics" has been discredited as a reliable, accurate pollster. George II Feb 2016 #35
These are Democratic States is why Orange Butterfly Feb 2016 #38
Alaska? Blue_In_AK Feb 2016 #53
Good clarification Orange Butterfly Feb 2016 #63
And don't pay any attention dpatbrown Feb 2016 #40
true that! dana_b Feb 2016 #41
Too little, too late ... NurseJackie Feb 2016 #42
and?? dana_b Feb 2016 #60
Go, Bernie GO!! AzDar Feb 2016 #43
If he can maintain leads in those places, Arkana Feb 2016 #44
WOW!! Cherry picking at its finest Persondem Feb 2016 #46
If by "cherry picking" you mean picking the most recent poll in each state, then you are right. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #64
But....but....but... MynameisBlarney Feb 2016 #47
You missed a big one: Oregon DrBulldog Feb 2016 #48
I agree Oregon is DEFINITELY for Sanders but the most recent poll I saw was months old and I tried Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #67
We are working hard for Bernie here in Oregon... woot berniepdx420 Feb 2016 #133
Bernie will win a few states and accumulate a stack of delegates but.. DCBob Feb 2016 #51
I've seen the future and Clinton loses the Dem nomination. Matariki Feb 2016 #54
How did you come by this information? Proud Liberal Dem Feb 2016 #81
Doc. The Redheaded Guy Feb 2016 #110
Heh Proud Liberal Dem Feb 2016 #116
He's telling Bernie CentralMass Feb 2016 #126
Hilli Vanilli will lose us the White House cali Feb 2016 #56
No she won't dana_b Feb 2016 #61
touché. nashville_brook Feb 2016 #78
Polling right now indicates that both of them will win the GE Downtown Hound Feb 2016 #115
CA Bookghsot1212 Feb 2016 #123
Welcome to DU! pugetres Feb 2016 #135
Latest polling has Hillary leading in CA and its a proportional state. DCBob Feb 2016 #139
2 points about CA. The race may be over by the time CA votes in June. A contest in June will be Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #140
Overtime Politics and H A Goodman workinclasszero Feb 2016 #52
Keep fighting! Keep donating! Keep phone banking! Matariki Feb 2016 #55
Bernie can definitely WIN. Hillary is slowly losing. All she has left are dirty tricks. senz Feb 2016 #59
Latest Texas poll has HRH up by only 10. Another big lead evaporating. kath Feb 2016 #65
in a conservative state PatrynXX Feb 2016 #72
LOL iloveObama12 Feb 2016 #66
you know they are worried when they start telling you to give it up PatrynXX Feb 2016 #69
Hillary forcing the inevitability script after the scrum in NV is just sad. nashville_brook Feb 2016 #77
Awesome! lark Feb 2016 #70
Caliornia -- We'll be ready. Le Taz Hot Feb 2016 #97
Excellent! lark Feb 2016 #141
Connecticut and New Jersey are both starting to sway towards Sanders! nt TheBlackAdder Feb 2016 #71
FiveThirtyEight has Mass tied DrDan Feb 2016 #74
1st, you misstate Clinton's numbers (it's Sanders 47.4%, Clinton 44.2%). 2nd, that's an aggregate. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #83
those are projected results (49.4 (C)- 47.4 (S)) - Clinton 57% chance of winning DrDan Feb 2016 #86
Except where 538 shows Sanders with a 68% chance of winning Massachusetts (consistent with polling) Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #93
K&R!!! n/t RKP5637 Feb 2016 #76
Keep On Keepin' On Folks ! Ferd Berfel Feb 2016 #79
Thanks, Attorney in Texas! Waiting For Everyman Feb 2016 #80
AT, I am not seeing those numbers. Consider the quality of the pollster and poll. kstewart33 Feb 2016 #82
538 shows Clinton 57% chance of winning Mass (vs being behind as shown by AT) DrDan Feb 2016 #87
Except where 538 shows Sanders with a 68% chance of winning Massachusetts (consistent with polling) Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #92
Don't confuse 538's polling analysis with Nate Silver's state-by-state analysis. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #90
Texas is closing up also! HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #84
Thank You For Sharing This Good News cantbeserious Feb 2016 #85
One Month Ago Clinton Was Crushing Bernie By 34 Points gordyfl Feb 2016 #89
Sanders is rising fast. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #98
Republicans and Independents - Bernie Sanders Does Better Than Clinton gordyfl Feb 2016 #99
We cannot win without ticket splitting Republicans and independents and yet they hate Hillary Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #101
Clinton wont qualify for delegates at 9% HereSince1628 Feb 2016 #109
For the first time I will caucus. Cheap_Trick Feb 2016 #91
Thank you! Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #94
Kicked and recommended! If the people are allowed to hear Bernie, he will win! Enthusiast Feb 2016 #108
Once the lies and corruption catch up to the oligarch candidate Bernie will be the last candidate SciDude Feb 2016 #114
I'm so ready for Hillary to step aside. I hope it doesn't require an indictment Vote2016 Feb 2016 #125
The more the voters learn about her, the faster she falls. The more voters learn about him, the Vote2016 Feb 2016 #127
Share this song in support of Bernie chikub Feb 2016 #118
love it! Vote2016 Feb 2016 #120
Cannot believe those Wisconsin numbers. AllyCat Feb 2016 #119
I've seen three Sanders lawn signs in CT, none for Clinton - she'll win CT by 20+ George II Feb 2016 #121
THAT DOESN'T MATTER!!! What's important is who has the most STUPERDELEGATES!!1!! TrollBuster9090 Feb 2016 #122
Obama didn't overtake Clinton until May. Be patient; Sanders will not catch up until after March. Vote2016 Feb 2016 #124
Cheating??? billhicks76 Feb 2016 #128
There is both a "win at all costs" mentality and a "rules don't apply to us" sense of entitlement Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #137
K&FnR! MrMickeysMom Feb 2016 #130
amen to that! Vote2016 Feb 2016 #142

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
6. Clinton will perform well in the Confederacy red states and Arkansas-bordering states (except she
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 12:38 PM
Feb 2016

looks unexpectedly weak in Oklahoma and Missouri).

Sanders will pass her in March 22 through April 9 when the calendar shifts away from the Confederacy Republican red states.

global1

(26,507 posts)
9. But He'll Need Money To Continue To Fund His Effort......
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 12:40 PM
Feb 2016

make sure that you continue to contribute to his campaign.

dsc

(53,396 posts)
37. yes we know what you think of the states where blacks dominate our party
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:39 PM
Feb 2016

and it frankly is pretty sad.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
62. It's not racial; it's cultural. DC has over 50% African American voters but it's not Republican.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:36 PM
Feb 2016

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and New York all have populations including about 20% African Americans (or more) and they are not Republican states.

The ex-Confederate Republican red states I'm talking about include Arkansas and Tennessee, which both have smaller percentages of African Americans than Washington DC, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, or New York.

You can pretend this is racial, but it's not. It's political. It's a political and cultural divide. If it were racial, it would exclude Arkansas and Tennessee (with less than 20% African Americans) and it would include Washington DC, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and New York (with higher percentages of African Americans).

I am not talking about states with a high percentage of African Americans, I am talking about Republican voting states that used to be part of the Confederacy.

You are the one who is dragging race into this issue.

SwampG8r

(10,287 posts)
100. The way you switched from mind reading to
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 05:19 PM
Feb 2016

Fortune telling was too fast to measure.

MrMickeysMom

(20,453 posts)
131. It's sad that you know more about jumping to that conclusion than...
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 12:50 AM
Feb 2016

...you know about the "Southern Strategy" by the Republicans and Blue Dog Conservative Democrats that are likely to vote the same, due to that racist strategy.

Reading is good... Do some and you won't be clueless next time.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
49. I love how you put it "confederacy red states"
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:13 PM
Feb 2016

when in most of those states the majority of voters will be African-Americans. You forgot to mention that prior to March 22 are three very important big Industrial states of the Midwest where recent polls show Hillary with big leads: Michigan, Illinois and Ohio. Furthermore going into those states Hillary will have momentum from SC and Super Tuesday. Bernie needs to demonstate he can win some of these big Industrial states.

I admit that the outlook from May 22-April 9 improves somewhat for Bernie. But they are hardly big delegate states (AZ, ID, UT, Alaska, WY, for example). In fact, it will be fun to point out that they are probably on the most part (outside chance Dems can win AZ) states that will be won by the GOP in November. We keep hearing Bernie supporters saying that the states in the South that Hillary will win are red states! but heck, we probably have a better chance of winning Georgia, North Carolina and even South Carolina than we have of winning Wyoming or Utah--states that Bernie supporters are so high on believeing that they will win.

Then after this period where Bernie might eek out two or three wins there comes New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Kentucky where Hillary will likely get enough delegates to sew up the nomination.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
88. The Deep South states of the old confederacy are going to vote Republican in the GE.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:30 PM
Feb 2016

Conservatism runs deep there. That plays to Clinton's base in the primary, and Sanders will just ride it out and find smoother sailing in states more liberal or libertarian. Those states will vote red in the GE anyway, and there's no point in getting too worked up about them as a progressive candidate.

 

timmymoff

(1,947 posts)
105. Central illinois
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 06:32 PM
Feb 2016

I live in central Illinois and have yet to see one Hillary yard sign or bumper sticker. I see Bernie signs scattered throughout the city of Bloomington-Normal. This isn't on campus but in working class neighborhoods. We also have two or three college groups that work in conjunction with our local efforts. It is possible Chicago is strong for Hillary I do not know , but I do know that a large group of the aforementioned are heading to Chicago for a Bernie march. We also just opened up our new phone banking location had a decent size group bringing in Bernie swag, chips, sodas, water coffee and other snacks. We have major canvassing planned. Bernie may not win Illinois but Illinois is one of many states Hillary claims to be from so she should win but we will be doing all we can to elect Bernie.

bvar22

(39,909 posts)
107. ...and which of those will Hillary win in the GE? You know, the election that counts.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 06:45 PM
Feb 2016

If she is lucky, maybe Arkansas, though lately Democrats haven't done well in Arkansas.
Arkansas recently lost the state Congress to Republicans for the first time since the Civil War.

It doesn't really mater if Hillary wins Red States that she will NEVER carry in the GE.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
113. That is an interesting angle
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 07:38 PM
Feb 2016

thanks.

I will have to read more into it.

I am not that well versed in those politics as I am in California's

But that is indeed one that I will have to find more to read on and digest. I know of regional differences, but this gives it a very interesting angle

 

hoosierlib

(710 posts)
58. Only in states with AA populations are equal to or higher than 15% of total population
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:26 PM
Feb 2016

The primary calendar is front loaded with those states...all of the others are either competitive and becoming more each day...

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
96. Race is not the factor. New York is about 1/5th African American, and it should be a close primary,
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:19 PM
Feb 2016

but Tennessee is a Confederacy Republican red state that has a more Caucasian population than New York, and Clinton will likely over-perform in Republican Tennessee and will under-perform in Democratic New York (despite the fact that she was a Senator representing New York and she lives in New York).

Nyan

(1,192 posts)
132. Bernie has been gaining on every demographic.
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 12:52 AM
Feb 2016

At first young people via internet and social media. Millenials of all colors. And then white male. White female. Asians. Latinas and Latinos. He's been making inroads into African Americans in the South as well. Perhaps not as fast as I would have hoped, but he's been consistently gaining. He will earn more AA votes in upcoming primaries.

 

hoosierlib

(710 posts)
136. Agreed...he just doedn't have enough time to a difference in those states...
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 08:12 AM
Feb 2016

Gotta concentrate in the next week on what he can win...and regroup after Super Tuesday. Getting wins in CO, MA, MN, OK and VT with close races in TX and VA will help...

He'll lose by about 20% in AL, AR, GA, TN...and SC...anything closer is a huge win

 

Elmer S. E. Dump

(5,751 posts)
106. You're missing one CH.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 06:35 PM
Feb 2016
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
Turn and face the strain
Ch-ch-Changes
Don't have to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
Ch-ch-Changes
Don't want to be a better man
Time may change me
But I can't trace time

Fla Dem

(27,633 posts)
14. Unfortunately only 5 of those primaries will occur on or before Super Tuesday 3/1
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:07 PM
Feb 2016

Maine 3/6
Missouri 3/15
Alaska 3/26
Wisconsin 4/5
W Virginia 5/10

Hillary will dominate the delagate count after Super Tuesday 3/1.



I didn't post Minnesota, Colorado, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vermont. All of them except Vermont have HRC in the lead by 20+ points.

See them all at this link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march1dem.html

sadoldgirl

(3,431 posts)
21. How many of these states (outside of MA) have been
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:16 PM
Feb 2016

generally won by Dems in a GE?

And sorry, CO ain't +20 for HRC!

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
25. And??
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:20 PM
Feb 2016

The primaries go on through June. Nothing is done until the convention floor.
 

Vote2016

(1,198 posts)
33. if you believe your own nonsense about Clinton winning Colorado, you can win a fortune in the
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:32 PM
Feb 2016

betting markets because they are practically giving away Hillary shares in the Colorado betting market!

Put your money where your mouth is and remember us when you're rich!

Fla Dem

(27,633 posts)
138. Then what happens if Bernie doesn't get the nomination? Pick up your blocks and
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 01:08 PM
Feb 2016

go home? Like all the Obama supporters did after he was president? Didn't vote in mid-terms, leaving him with a congress he couldn't get anything through. Where will Bernie supporters be after the election? Will they continue to fight within the system for the issues Bernie thought were important? Or will they just shrug their shoulders and say "well we fought the good fight" and give up?

OilemFirchen

(7,288 posts)
19. Lovely sources... again!
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:15 PM
Feb 2016

Washington Free Beacon for Colorado. Overtime Politics for Maine and Missouri.

You're a treasure!

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
31. I suspect they are a bogus operation trying to influence voters.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:23 PM
Feb 2016

They really blew it in Nevada.

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
36. It's a couple of amateurs in Australia.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:37 PM
Feb 2016

They call people from phone listings; no weighting, no adjustment for demographics.

They're a joke.

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
22. a LOT to look forward to!
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:17 PM
Feb 2016

Keep it up, fellow Bernie supporters! Get the word out that we need to stay the course and keep fighting.

Contrary to what some here would LIKE you to think, things will not be sewn up until June.

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
32. That list doesn't look that promising
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:31 PM
Feb 2016

A number of those states have very low delegate counts (pledged): Maine has 25 delegates (in a closed primary on March 6). Alaska has only 16 (March 26). Vermont has 16 (March 1). West Virginia has 29 (a late primary on May 10).

Compare that to early primary states (Super-Tuesday or before) that have huge delegate counts and in which Clinton is very far ahead: In Florida (March 5, a closed primary), which has 214 delegates, she is ahead 62% to 26%; in Illinois (March 15), with 156 delegates, she's ahead 51% to 32%.

It looks like a steep climb to get ahead in pledged delegates, after Super Tuesday. And as long as Clinton remains even a few pledged delegates ahead, she's not going to lose many super delegates.

But let's carry on. I'm all for it.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
57. but its not winner take all
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:26 PM
Feb 2016

they will each collect delegstes according to how the people voted. so in those states with a lot of delegates, say a race is 55/45... that is not going to be a huge difference in delegstes. yes, hillary will leave ST with more total. but then the calendar becomes more favorable to bernie, and he will start getting more delegtes.

i would not be surprised to see a close race almost all the way through

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
75. It was a close race in 2008
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:04 PM
Feb 2016

But the delegate math was insurmountable. Clinton actually got more total popular votes overall than Obama in the end, but because Obama maintained his lead (however small) in pledged delegates, the super delegates also broke for him. As long as Clinton maintains a lead in pledged delegates, there is nothing to be done about it.

And 55/45 in big states like Florida does make a difference. At least 22 more delegates: I say "at least," because delegate assignment isn't strictly proportional. If you get 20% of the vote, you don't necessarily get 20% of the delegates, because it's done district by district. If you win all the delegates in a 6-delegate district, you have 3 more delegates than someone who wins 3 delegates out of the 4 in another, smaller district. The math is crazy complex. Even if she wins the bare 22 more in Florida (around 117 delegates), she will probably keep all of the Florida Super Delegates who have endorsed her as well. And there are 32 FL Super Delegates. So she could end up with 117 plus +/- 30--a more than 50-delegate lead over the candidate who got 45% of the vote. It adds up.

 

Orange Butterfly

(205 posts)
38. These are Democratic States is why
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:40 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie is a true progressive
Democratic states favor him.



The popular vote - "We The People"

The issue is that the elected Dems in these states (and lobbyists) are super delegates for Hillary.
It is rigged!

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)
53. Alaska?
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:22 PM
Feb 2016

We're not Democratic or Republican. There are more Independent and nondeclared voters here than Democrats and Republicans combined. It's cool that even though we have a Democrat-only caucus, the independents can register as Democrat for that one day and then switch back to independent afterwards.

 

Orange Butterfly

(205 posts)
63. Good clarification
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:43 PM
Feb 2016

Hi Blue_In_AK

I am very pleased your caucusing is open in Alaska. It is the way it should be in ALL states.

I guess my comment was pointing out my perspective of conservatives vote for Hillary and progressives vote for Bernie.

 

dpatbrown

(368 posts)
40. And don't pay any attention
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:53 PM
Feb 2016

to the forces who are trying to convince us that Clinton has a lock on the primaries. Put them on ignore.

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
41. true that!
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 01:56 PM
Feb 2016

I wasn't going to. I don't like doing that. But I had to because I was letting it get to me. So in two weeks I've put around 15-20 people on ignore. My blood pressure is thanking me for that. lol..

Arkana

(24,347 posts)
44. If he can maintain leads in those places,
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:04 PM
Feb 2016

then he will eventually pass Clinton in total delegate count--but Super Tuesday has a lot of Southern states in it, so be prepared.

Persondem

(2,101 posts)
46. WOW!! Cherry picking at its finest
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:06 PM
Feb 2016

I just checked out 2 of the states on your list and found that the WVA result is based on 1 poll of 159 people which is a laughably small sample. For OK you are just reporting 1 poll while the RCP average has Clinton up by 14 points.

If your other states' info is on par with those two then the whole "Bernie is doing well" meme has little validity.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
64. If by "cherry picking" you mean picking the most recent poll in each state, then you are right.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:46 PM
Feb 2016

Massachusetts is an aggregate poll and that's only because the most recent poll is a tie, but the other polls are the most recent poll for that state.

 

DrBulldog

(841 posts)
48. You missed a big one: Oregon
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:07 PM
Feb 2016

The most recent number I've seen (+22) puts Oregon up there as one of the strongest pro-Bernie states.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
67. I agree Oregon is DEFINITELY for Sanders but the most recent poll I saw was months old and I tried
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:55 PM
Feb 2016

to focus on the most recent polling.

Like in Oregon, Sanders is also going to clean up in Connecticut, Rhode Island, North and South Dakota, etc., etc. etc., but I didn't see any recent polling to report from those states so I left them out of the update.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
51. Bernie will win a few states and accumulate a stack of delegates but..
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:20 PM
Feb 2016

it simply wont be enough.

Matariki

(18,775 posts)
54. I've seen the future and Clinton loses the Dem nomination.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:22 PM
Feb 2016

In fact she's about to have a load of troubles starting in the next few weeks. Bookmark this.

CentralMass

(16,971 posts)
126. He's telling Bernie
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 12:19 AM
Feb 2016

"As long as you hit that wire with the connecting hook at precisely 88 miles per hour, the instant the lightning strikes the tower... everything wI'll be ok"

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
56. Hilli Vanilli will lose us the White House
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:25 PM
Feb 2016

I've never doubted that she'll win the primary and I've never doubted that she'll lose the general election.

Downtown Hound

(12,618 posts)
115. Polling right now indicates that both of them will win the GE
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 08:37 PM
Feb 2016

It's just that Bernie wins it by a larger margin.

 

pugetres

(507 posts)
135. Welcome to DU!
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 06:37 AM
Feb 2016

I'm afraid I'm less than informed about the number of delegates and the overall history of democratic primaries of your state.

I hope you can share more of your thoughts with us.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
139. Latest polling has Hillary leading in CA and its a proportional state.
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 01:26 PM
Feb 2016

Your comment makes zero sense.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
140. 2 points about CA. The race may be over by the time CA votes in June. A contest in June will be
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 01:49 PM
Feb 2016

heavily influenced by the 40+ contests between now and then.

If Sanders is well ahead by June, he will likely win CA, too. Same is true for Hillary.

If it is a close contest in June, we should do well in CA and that may tip the balance.

PatrynXX

(5,668 posts)
72. in a conservative state
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:00 PM
Feb 2016

and if she can't win in conservative states where can she win. This was and still is a worry from ol Bill about Super Tuesday. Something has been bugging him. And this might be why. There really should be a law against family controlled countries. Bush clinton bush .... oh please not again araghhhhhh

PatrynXX

(5,668 posts)
69. you know they are worried when they start telling you to give it up
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:57 PM
Feb 2016

when back in 2008 if Obama had done so after 3 states meh nothing changes. and the more the media ignores him the more people who hate the media pay attention to him. Word of Mouth . Don't force it but word of mouth

lark

(26,081 posts)
70. Awesome!
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 02:58 PM
Feb 2016

Now we need to get Bernie's numbers up in some of the larger states like FL, CA, NY, NJ and TX. Don't know if we can get TX, that's a stretch, but I'd think that CA and NJ should be fairly easy to pick up. FL and NY will be harder due to DWS and Florida establishment Dems being so conservative and NY being HRC's adopted state. Doesn't mean they are unwinnable, it will just take more effort.

Go, Bernie, go!

lark

(26,081 posts)
141. Excellent!
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 01:52 PM
Feb 2016

We are counting on you and the good progressives in CA to put Bernie over the top.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
83. 1st, you misstate Clinton's numbers (it's Sanders 47.4%, Clinton 44.2%). 2nd, that's an aggregate.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:19 PM
Feb 2016

Polls generally come with a published margin of error. Aggregates generally do not.

PS - The betting markets have Sanders as a 2-to-1 favorite in Massachusetts so you may want to refinance your house and buy up Clinton futures on the betting market while they are still low.

kstewart33

(6,552 posts)
82. AT, I am not seeing those numbers. Consider the quality of the pollster and poll.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:14 PM
Feb 2016

538.com is probably the best prediction site because it predictions are based on weighted poll results wherein the timeliness (recency) of the poll and the pollster's past accuracy are big factors in the formula.

Nate Silver, who developed the formula, accurately called every state in the 2012 presidential race.

Check it out and take a look at his predictions. A very different picture.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
90. Don't confuse 538's polling analysis with Nate Silver's state-by-state analysis.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:53 PM
Feb 2016

On the one hand, when 538 has "primary forecasts," they are putting data (mainly polling analysis but other data, too, like endorsements and facebook activity) into a mathematical model. It's like what Pollster and RCP do, but it's one level more complicated.

The problem is that most of these states are sparsely polled so the forecast is only as good as the data.

On the other hand, Nate Silver has also done a state-by-state analysis (mostly demographic, but also including other data such as fundraising, etc.):



You will see that 538's primary forecasts sometime line up with Silver's state-by-state analysis (for example, they both show Vermont as a blowout for Sanders and Arkansas as a blowout for Clinton) and sometimes they don't line up (for example, Silver's analysis suggests Massachusetts is a good state for Sanders -- a state Sanders should win if the national polling has Sanders within 5% or 6% of Clinton -- and the 538 polls-only forecast says Sanders has a 68% chance of winning whereas the polls-plus forecast which puts weight on endorsements, etc., gives Clinton a 57% chance of winning).

Silver would be the first to say that 538's forecasts of caucuses and primaries are inexact (he would not want 538's primary inaccuracy averaged with his past general election accuracy and he has said as much on more than a few occasions). For example, 538's polling analysis missed Iowa by about 5% and missed New Hampshire by about 8%, with both errors in Clinton's favor (maybe Silver should do a house effect analysis on 538's forecasts). 538 has done even worse on the Republican side this primary season.

In short, 538 has consistently underestimated Sanders, and Silver's state-by-state analysis is generally validated by the most recent polling cited in the OP.

If the suspense is killing you, just tune out and check back on April 10.

If the voter-allocated-delegate total is close on April 10, we're in for an exciting summer. If one or the other candidate is well ahead by then, we'll probably know who will be our nominee. Keep in mind, Sanders is the underdog in this process, and Clinton is the favorite -- Sanders would have to do everything right to pull off the upset (or Clinton would have to mismanage her campaign) but, so far, Sanders has done everything right (and Clinton has helped with some mismanagement here and there).

gordyfl

(598 posts)
89. One Month Ago Clinton Was Crushing Bernie By 34 Points
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:40 PM
Feb 2016

Hmmm...?

http://www.citypages.com/news/hillary-clinton-is-crushing-bernie-sanders-in-new-minnesota-poll-7990984

I noticed Bernie with 83% in Vermont. Not bad for a (so-called) do-nothing Senator, representing the state of Vermont.

gordyfl

(598 posts)
99. Republicans and Independents - Bernie Sanders Does Better Than Clinton
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 05:14 PM
Feb 2016

That Same Poll...

QUESTION: Looking ahead to the general election in November, for
whom would you vote if the choice were between Bernie Sanders,
the Democrat and Donald Trump, the Republican?

PARTY ID SANDERS:

DFL/Democrat 87%

Republican 14%

Independent 49%

Same question - Clinton

PARTY ID CLINTON

DFL/Democrat 83%

Republican 1%

Independent 36%


http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Star+Tribune+Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race+Jan+2016.pdf

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
101. We cannot win without ticket splitting Republicans and independents and yet they hate Hillary
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 05:33 PM
Feb 2016

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
109. Clinton wont qualify for delegates at 9%
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 07:24 PM
Feb 2016

Vermont doesn't have a huge number of delegates but winning them all would sure help his tally.

 

Cheap_Trick

(3,918 posts)
91. For the first time I will caucus.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:04 PM
Feb 2016

Hopefully we can win Kansas for Bernie. And we won't even have to cheat to do it.

Enthusiast

(50,983 posts)
108. Kicked and recommended! If the people are allowed to hear Bernie, he will win!
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 07:00 PM
Feb 2016


We are sick to death of the status quo!
 

SciDude

(79 posts)
114. Once the lies and corruption catch up to the oligarch candidate Bernie will be the last candidate
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 08:28 PM
Feb 2016

standing! We have to hang in there because you know the Clinton campaign is going to hid the skids before long.

The corporate media is treating her with kid gloves but as soon as there is blood in the water the media will go into a feeding frenzy and Bernie will be well positioned to finish strong and take the nomination.

 

Vote2016

(1,198 posts)
127. The more the voters learn about her, the faster she falls. The more voters learn about him, the
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 12:22 AM
Feb 2016

higher she rises.

chikub

(3 posts)
118. Share this song in support of Bernie
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 09:25 PM
Feb 2016

Help keep the momentum going—enjoy and share this live recording of “Go Bernie Go” by Samm Bennett. Keep it on the airwaves!

https://soundcloud.com/samm-bennett/go-bernie-go

#feelthebern #bernie2016 #bernie #berniesanders #GoBernieGo #hotlicksforbernie

AllyCat

(18,842 posts)
119. Cannot believe those Wisconsin numbers.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 09:33 PM
Feb 2016

I have seen TWO Clinton bumper stickers and a yard sign. Sanders is EVERYWHERE.

TrollBuster9090

(6,128 posts)
122. THAT DOESN'T MATTER!!! What's important is who has the most STUPERDELEGATES!!1!!
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 10:25 PM
Feb 2016

The Stupordelegates always back the establishment candidate...
...oh wait...

?w=575&h=465

 

Vote2016

(1,198 posts)
124. Obama didn't overtake Clinton until May. Be patient; Sanders will not catch up until after March.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 11:32 PM
Feb 2016
 

billhicks76

(5,082 posts)
128. Cheating???
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 12:34 AM
Feb 2016

Staffers for Bernie told me Clinton campaign steamrolled votes in Nevada and that new videos will be coming out. And it will be ugly. On another note Clinton supporters are flagging and comment they can that doesn't support Hillary and just waits for a jury that has more Hillary supporters on the jury to get people banned. A 20% success rate can end up quickly getting commenting privileges frozen. Rigging the game once again.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
137. There is both a "win at all costs" mentality and a "rules don't apply to us" sense of entitlement
Wed Feb 24, 2016, 09:22 AM
Feb 2016
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