2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe list grows! Sanders leads Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Vermont, and is
ahead in the betting market for Minnesota, and the polls are closing and tight in Oklahoma, Missouri, Wisconsin, and beyond!
Alaska - (Sanders 48%, Clinton 34%)
Colorado - (Sanders 49%, Clinton 43%)
Maine - (Sanders 56%, Clinton 41%)
Massachusetts - (Sanders 47.5%, Clinton 44%)
Minnesota - (Sanders 59% chance, Clinton 41% chance)
Missouri - (Clinton 47%, Sanders 42%)
Oklahoma - (Clinton 46%, Sanders 44%)
Vermont - (Sanders 83%, Clinton 9%)
West Virginia - (Sanders 57%, Clinton 29%)
Wisconsin - (Clinton 45%, Sanders 43.5%)
The race also looks favorable in Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, Utah, Hawaii, and Arizona.
This list is growing! Keep fighting! Keep donating! Keep phone banking!
cali
(114,904 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)looks unexpectedly weak in Oklahoma and Missouri).
Sanders will pass her in March 22 through April 9 when the calendar shifts away from the Confederacy Republican red states.
artislife
(9,497 posts)But I look forward to the month of March!
global1
(26,507 posts)make sure that you continue to contribute to his campaign.
demwing
(16,916 posts)we have to get him ALL the way through the primary.
ejbr
(5,892 posts)Duval
(4,280 posts)My husband is for Bernie, too.
donate to Bernie often!
dsc
(53,396 posts)and it frankly is pretty sad.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and New York all have populations including about 20% African Americans (or more) and they are not Republican states.
The ex-Confederate Republican red states I'm talking about include Arkansas and Tennessee, which both have smaller percentages of African Americans than Washington DC, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, or New York.
You can pretend this is racial, but it's not. It's political. It's a political and cultural divide. If it were racial, it would exclude Arkansas and Tennessee (with less than 20% African Americans) and it would include Washington DC, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and New York (with higher percentages of African Americans).
I am not talking about states with a high percentage of African Americans, I am talking about Republican voting states that used to be part of the Confederacy.
You are the one who is dragging race into this issue.
beltanefauve
(1,784 posts)And didn't take the bait.
dsc
(53,396 posts)SwampG8r
(10,287 posts)Fortune telling was too fast to measure.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)ALBliberal
(3,339 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)...you know about the "Southern Strategy" by the Republicans and Blue Dog Conservative Democrats that are likely to vote the same, due to that racist strategy.
Reading is good... Do some and you won't be clueless next time.
appalachiablue
(44,022 posts)
book_worm
(15,951 posts)when in most of those states the majority of voters will be African-Americans. You forgot to mention that prior to March 22 are three very important big Industrial states of the Midwest where recent polls show Hillary with big leads: Michigan, Illinois and Ohio. Furthermore going into those states Hillary will have momentum from SC and Super Tuesday. Bernie needs to demonstate he can win some of these big Industrial states.
I admit that the outlook from May 22-April 9 improves somewhat for Bernie. But they are hardly big delegate states (AZ, ID, UT, Alaska, WY, for example). In fact, it will be fun to point out that they are probably on the most part (outside chance Dems can win AZ) states that will be won by the GOP in November. We keep hearing Bernie supporters saying that the states in the South that Hillary will win are red states! but heck, we probably have a better chance of winning Georgia, North Carolina and even South Carolina than we have of winning Wyoming or Utah--states that Bernie supporters are so high on believeing that they will win.
Then after this period where Bernie might eek out two or three wins there comes New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Kentucky where Hillary will likely get enough delegates to sew up the nomination.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Conservatism runs deep there. That plays to Clinton's base in the primary, and Sanders will just ride it out and find smoother sailing in states more liberal or libertarian. Those states will vote red in the GE anyway, and there's no point in getting too worked up about them as a progressive candidate.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)I live in central Illinois and have yet to see one Hillary yard sign or bumper sticker. I see Bernie signs scattered throughout the city of Bloomington-Normal. This isn't on campus but in working class neighborhoods. We also have two or three college groups that work in conjunction with our local efforts. It is possible Chicago is strong for Hillary I do not know , but I do know that a large group of the aforementioned are heading to Chicago for a Bernie march. We also just opened up our new phone banking location had a decent size group bringing in Bernie swag, chips, sodas, water coffee and other snacks. We have major canvassing planned. Bernie may not win Illinois but Illinois is one of many states Hillary claims to be from so she should win but we will be doing all we can to elect Bernie.
YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)bvar22
(39,909 posts)If she is lucky, maybe Arkansas, though lately Democrats haven't done well in Arkansas.
Arkansas recently lost the state Congress to Republicans for the first time since the Civil War.
It doesn't really mater if Hillary wins Red States that she will NEVER carry in the GE.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)thanks.
I will have to read more into it.
I am not that well versed in those politics as I am in California's
But that is indeed one that I will have to find more to read on and digest. I know of regional differences, but this gives it a very interesting angle
hoosierlib
(710 posts)The primary calendar is front loaded with those states...all of the others are either competitive and becoming more each day...
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)but Tennessee is a Confederacy Republican red state that has a more Caucasian population than New York, and Clinton will likely over-perform in Republican Tennessee and will under-perform in Democratic New York (despite the fact that she was a Senator representing New York and she lives in New York).
ALBliberal
(3,339 posts)Nyan
(1,192 posts)At first young people via internet and social media. Millenials of all colors. And then white male. White female. Asians. Latinas and Latinos. He's been making inroads into African Americans in the South as well. Perhaps not as fast as I would have hoped, but he's been consistently gaining. He will earn more AA votes in upcoming primaries.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)Gotta concentrate in the next week on what he can win...and regroup after Super Tuesday. Getting wins in CO, MA, MN, OK and VT with close races in TX and VA will help...
He'll lose by about 20% in AL, AR, GA, TN...and SC...anything closer is a huge win
dragonfly301
(399 posts)Faux pas
(16,356 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)PonyUp
(1,680 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)is there a high quality version somewhere?
PonyUp
(1,680 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)just try and remake it so a nice version exists...
cui bono
(19,926 posts).
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Turn and face the strain
Ch-ch-Changes
Don't have to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
Ch-ch-Changes
Don't want to be a better man
Time may change me
But I can't trace time
MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)K&R
kgnu_fan
(3,021 posts)Fla Dem
(27,633 posts)Maine 3/6
Missouri 3/15
Alaska 3/26
Wisconsin 4/5
W Virginia 5/10
Hillary will dominate the delagate count after Super Tuesday 3/1.

I didn't post Minnesota, Colorado, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vermont. All of them except Vermont have HRC in the lead by 20+ points.
See them all at this link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march1dem.html
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)generally won by Dems in a GE?
And sorry, CO ain't +20 for HRC!
The primaries go on through June. Nothing is done until the convention floor.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)betting markets because they are practically giving away Hillary shares in the Colorado betting market!
Put your money where your mouth is and remember us when you're rich!
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Fla Dem
(27,633 posts)go home? Like all the Obama supporters did after he was president? Didn't vote in mid-terms, leaving him with a congress he couldn't get anything through. Where will Bernie supporters be after the election? Will they continue to fight within the system for the issues Bernie thought were important? Or will they just shrug their shoulders and say "well we fought the good fight" and give up?
leftcoastmountains
(2,968 posts)Matariki
(18,775 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,288 posts)Washington Free Beacon for Colorado. Overtime Politics for Maine and Missouri.
You're a treasure!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It's revealing.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)They really blew it in Nevada.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)They call people from phone listings; no weighting, no adjustment for demographics.
They're a joke.
It is.
Duval
(4,280 posts)dana_b
(11,546 posts)Keep it up, fellow Bernie supporters! Get the word out that we need to stay the course and keep fighting.
Contrary to what some here would LIKE you to think, things will not be sewn up until June.
erlewyne
(1,115 posts)I will vote for Bernie !!!
840high
(17,196 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)great post!!
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)frazzled
(18,402 posts)A number of those states have very low delegate counts (pledged): Maine has 25 delegates (in a closed primary on March 6). Alaska has only 16 (March 26). Vermont has 16 (March 1). West Virginia has 29 (a late primary on May 10).
Compare that to early primary states (Super-Tuesday or before) that have huge delegate counts and in which Clinton is very far ahead: In Florida (March 5, a closed primary), which has 214 delegates, she is ahead 62% to 26%; in Illinois (March 15), with 156 delegates, she's ahead 51% to 32%.
It looks like a steep climb to get ahead in pledged delegates, after Super Tuesday. And as long as Clinton remains even a few pledged delegates ahead, she's not going to lose many super delegates.
But let's carry on. I'm all for it.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)they will each collect delegstes according to how the people voted. so in those states with a lot of delegates, say a race is 55/45... that is not going to be a huge difference in delegstes. yes, hillary will leave ST with more total. but then the calendar becomes more favorable to bernie, and he will start getting more delegtes.
i would not be surprised to see a close race almost all the way through
frazzled
(18,402 posts)But the delegate math was insurmountable. Clinton actually got more total popular votes overall than Obama in the end, but because Obama maintained his lead (however small) in pledged delegates, the super delegates also broke for him. As long as Clinton maintains a lead in pledged delegates, there is nothing to be done about it.
And 55/45 in big states like Florida does make a difference. At least 22 more delegates: I say "at least," because delegate assignment isn't strictly proportional. If you get 20% of the vote, you don't necessarily get 20% of the delegates, because it's done district by district. If you win all the delegates in a 6-delegate district, you have 3 more delegates than someone who wins 3 delegates out of the 4 in another, smaller district. The math is crazy complex. Even if she wins the bare 22 more in Florida (around 117 delegates), she will probably keep all of the Florida Super Delegates who have endorsed her as well. And there are 32 FL Super Delegates. So she could end up with 117 plus +/- 30--a more than 50-delegate lead over the candidate who got 45% of the vote. It adds up.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)the daily word is from Camp Weathervane is when they lose these.
George II
(67,782 posts)Orange Butterfly
(205 posts)Bernie is a true progressive
Democratic states favor him.
The popular vote - "We The People"
The issue is that the elected Dems in these states (and lobbyists) are super delegates for Hillary.
It is rigged!
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)We're not Democratic or Republican. There are more Independent and nondeclared voters here than Democrats and Republicans combined. It's cool that even though we have a Democrat-only caucus, the independents can register as Democrat for that one day and then switch back to independent afterwards.
Orange Butterfly
(205 posts)Hi Blue_In_AK
I am very pleased your caucusing is open in Alaska. It is the way it should be in ALL states.
I guess my comment was pointing out my perspective of conservatives vote for Hillary and progressives vote for Bernie.
dpatbrown
(368 posts)to the forces who are trying to convince us that Clinton has a lock on the primaries. Put them on ignore.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)I wasn't going to. I don't like doing that. But I had to because I was letting it get to me. So in two weeks I've put around 15-20 people on ignore. My blood pressure is thanking me for that. lol..
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... Super Tuesday is almost upon us.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)that doesn't mean a thing. Not until the convention floor!
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Arkana
(24,347 posts)then he will eventually pass Clinton in total delegate count--but Super Tuesday has a lot of Southern states in it, so be prepared.
Persondem
(2,101 posts)I just checked out 2 of the states on your list and found that the WVA result is based on 1 poll of 159 people which is a laughably small sample. For OK you are just reporting 1 poll while the RCP average has Clinton up by 14 points.
If your other states' info is on par with those two then the whole "Bernie is doing well" meme has little validity.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Massachusetts is an aggregate poll and that's only because the most recent poll is a tie, but the other polls are the most recent poll for that state.
MynameisBlarney
(2,979 posts)According to the internets Bernie should be throwing in the towel right now!
DrBulldog
(841 posts)The most recent number I've seen (+22) puts Oregon up there as one of the strongest pro-Bernie states.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)to focus on the most recent polling.
Like in Oregon, Sanders is also going to clean up in Connecticut, Rhode Island, North and South Dakota, etc., etc. etc., but I didn't see any recent polling to report from those states so I left them out of the update.
berniepdx420
(1,784 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)it simply wont be enough.

Matariki
(18,775 posts)In fact she's about to have a load of troubles starting in the next few weeks. Bookmark this.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,957 posts)Ouija Board? Crystal ball? Tardis?
The Redheaded Guy
(90 posts)
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,957 posts)Good one! Love me some Christopher Lloyd!
CentralMass
(16,971 posts)"As long as you hit that wire with the connecting hook at precisely 88 miles per hour, the instant the lightning strikes the tower... everything wI'll be ok"
cali
(114,904 posts)I've never doubted that she'll win the primary and I've never doubted that she'll lose the general election.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)because Bernie is going to win the nomination.
nashville_brook
(20,958 posts)Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)It's just that Bernie wins it by a larger margin.
Your forgetting the Jackpot in CA. We win it is all over for her.
pugetres
(507 posts)I'm afraid I'm less than informed about the number of delegates and the overall history of democratic primaries of your state.
I hope you can share more of your thoughts with us.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Your comment makes zero sense.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)heavily influenced by the 40+ contests between now and then.
If Sanders is well ahead by June, he will likely win CA, too. Same is true for Hillary.
If it is a close contest in June, we should do well in CA and that may tip the balance.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)are the clown princes of political divination!
Matariki
(18,775 posts)Well said, Attorney in Texas!!
senz
(11,945 posts)kath
(10,565 posts)PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)and if she can't win in conservative states where can she win. This was and still is a worry from ol Bill about Super Tuesday. Something has been bugging him. And this might be why. There really should be a law against family controlled countries. Bush clinton bush .... oh please not again araghhhhhh
iloveObama12
(425 posts)Yeah Right!
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)when back in 2008 if Obama had done so after 3 states meh nothing changes. and the more the media ignores him the more people who hate the media pay attention to him. Word of Mouth . Don't force it but word of mouth
nashville_brook
(20,958 posts)lark
(26,081 posts)Now we need to get Bernie's numbers up in some of the larger states like FL, CA, NY, NJ and TX. Don't know if we can get TX, that's a stretch, but I'd think that CA and NJ should be fairly easy to pick up. FL and NY will be harder due to DWS and Florida establishment Dems being so conservative and NY being HRC's adopted state. Doesn't mean they are unwinnable, it will just take more effort.
Go, Bernie, go!
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Guaranteed! We've been working on this since July.
lark
(26,081 posts)We are counting on you and the good progressives in CA to put Bernie over the top.
TheBlackAdder
(29,981 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)C 49.4 - S 47.4 within MOE
as of this morning
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Polls generally come with a published margin of error. Aggregates generally do not.
PS - The betting markets have Sanders as a 2-to-1 favorite in Massachusetts so you may want to refinance your house and buy up Clinton futures on the betting market while they are still low.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)RKP5637
(67,112 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)And Send Bernie another $25 Today!

Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Great post!
kstewart33
(6,552 posts)538.com is probably the best prediction site because it predictions are based on weighted poll results wherein the timeliness (recency) of the poll and the pollster's past accuracy are big factors in the formula.
Nate Silver, who developed the formula, accurately called every state in the 2012 presidential race.
Check it out and take a look at his predictions. A very different picture.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)On the one hand, when 538 has "primary forecasts," they are putting data (mainly polling analysis but other data, too, like endorsements and facebook activity) into a mathematical model. It's like what Pollster and RCP do, but it's one level more complicated.
The problem is that most of these states are sparsely polled so the forecast is only as good as the data.
On the other hand, Nate Silver has also done a state-by-state analysis (mostly demographic, but also including other data such as fundraising, etc.):

You will see that 538's primary forecasts sometime line up with Silver's state-by-state analysis (for example, they both show Vermont as a blowout for Sanders and Arkansas as a blowout for Clinton) and sometimes they don't line up (for example, Silver's analysis suggests Massachusetts is a good state for Sanders -- a state Sanders should win if the national polling has Sanders within 5% or 6% of Clinton -- and the 538 polls-only forecast says Sanders has a 68% chance of winning whereas the polls-plus forecast which puts weight on endorsements, etc., gives Clinton a 57% chance of winning).
Silver would be the first to say that 538's forecasts of caucuses and primaries are inexact (he would not want 538's primary inaccuracy averaged with his past general election accuracy and he has said as much on more than a few occasions). For example, 538's polling analysis missed Iowa by about 5% and missed New Hampshire by about 8%, with both errors in Clinton's favor (maybe Silver should do a house effect analysis on 538's forecasts). 538 has done even worse on the Republican side this primary season.
In short, 538 has consistently underestimated Sanders, and Silver's state-by-state analysis is generally validated by the most recent polling cited in the OP.
If the suspense is killing you, just tune out and check back on April 10.
If the voter-allocated-delegate total is close on April 10, we're in for an exciting summer. If one or the other candidate is well ahead by then, we'll probably know who will be our nominee. Keep in mind, Sanders is the underdog in this process, and Clinton is the favorite -- Sanders would have to do everything right to pull off the upset (or Clinton would have to mismanage her campaign) but, so far, Sanders has done everything right (and Clinton has helped with some mismanagement here and there).
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
gordyfl
(598 posts)Hmmm...?
http://www.citypages.com/news/hillary-clinton-is-crushing-bernie-sanders-in-new-minnesota-poll-7990984
I noticed Bernie with 83% in Vermont. Not bad for a (so-called) do-nothing Senator, representing the state of Vermont.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)gordyfl
(598 posts)That Same Poll...
QUESTION: Looking ahead to the general election in November, for
whom would you vote if the choice were between Bernie Sanders,
the Democrat and Donald Trump, the Republican?
PARTY ID SANDERS:
DFL/Democrat 87%
Republican 14%
Independent 49%
Same question - Clinton
PARTY ID CLINTON
DFL/Democrat 83%
Republican 1%
Independent 36%
http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Star+Tribune+Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race+Jan+2016.pdf
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Vermont doesn't have a huge number of delegates but winning them all would sure help his tally.
Cheap_Trick
(3,918 posts)Hopefully we can win Kansas for Bernie. And we won't even have to cheat to do it.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)We are sick to death of the status quo!
SciDude
(79 posts)standing! We have to hang in there because you know the Clinton campaign is going to hid the skids before long.
The corporate media is treating her with kid gloves but as soon as there is blood in the water the media will go into a feeding frenzy and Bernie will be well positioned to finish strong and take the nomination.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Vote2016
(1,198 posts)higher she rises.
chikub
(3 posts)Help keep the momentum goingenjoy and share this live recording of Go Bernie Go by Samm Bennett. Keep it on the airwaves!
https://soundcloud.com/samm-bennett/go-bernie-go
#feelthebern #bernie2016 #bernie #berniesanders #GoBernieGo #hotlicksforbernie
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)AllyCat
(18,842 posts)I have seen TWO Clinton bumper stickers and a yard sign. Sanders is EVERYWHERE.
George II
(67,782 posts)TrollBuster9090
(6,128 posts)The Stupordelegates always back the establishment candidate...
...oh wait...
?w=575&h=465
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)billhicks76
(5,082 posts)Staffers for Bernie told me Clinton campaign steamrolled votes in Nevada and that new videos will be coming out. And it will be ugly. On another note Clinton supporters are flagging and comment they can that doesn't support Hillary and just waits for a jury that has more Hillary supporters on the jury to get people banned. A 20% success rate can end up quickly getting commenting privileges frozen. Rigging the game once again.