Gallup tracking: Obama 47% , Romney 48% , Likely Voters (Thursday)

[Blue Yorker]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

[hrmjustin]

1. I hate this back and forth polling.

[TroyD]

2. I thought Obama would go up in Gallup today

He did in Rasmussen.

[Ace Rothstein]

10. Gallup Is A 7 Day Average

What most likely happened is a good Obama day fell off from the 3rd and replaced with something closer to an even day yesterday. Yesterday's polling release was the last data relying on a day of polling pre-debate.

Watch for Gallup to trend better for Obama over the next three days as the first three days of polling post-debate fall off. This is not taking into account anything major happening in the VP debate tonight.

[helpisontheway]

13. Thank you for the explanation! nt

[MSMITH33156]

23. This is also why I wouldn't worry about the 7 day tracking polls until Sunday.

These polls still contain the height of the Romney bounce. I was actually surprised that Obama moved up yesterday in this poll. Because it rolled off a pre-debate day of polling and rolled on a post-debate day of polling. I think it is clear that if Romney had really strong numbers on Thursday and Friday of last week (as has been reported), then Obama is actually having a really strong week thus far to keep the race basically tied, and when Thursday and Friday of this week roll off that average, you will see the polls settling in his favor.

Unless, of course, the VP debate provides another shock to the system.

[WI_DEM]

3. job numbers went down some, too (which is 3-day not 7)

My guess is that for some reason (probably all the harping about the debate by the media) Romney had a good Wednesday. Hopefully Biden can perform well tonight and change the MSM narrative.

[magical thyme]

12. Jobs numbers were UP on Friday and New Unemployment Apps DOWN to 4-year low

just this morning. And the job numbers from last Friday are expected to be corrected *upwards* sometime this month.

Good news on top of good news.

[regnaD kciN]

15. I think the poster meant "job approval numbers" in the Gallup poll.

[Fgiriun]

4. well it looks as if the zombies

are clinching to the psychopath. There must be something we could do to turn back the tide of ignorance.

[Maximumnegro]

17. We don't need to do anything. Sheesh.

We had an onslaught late last night of swing state polls that were great Obama. Worth more than all of today's national polls. Totally forgotten already. I have to scroll all the way down to see those threads and they're completely gone from Dkos now. Incredible, it's as if people really would prefer to freak out about the race. I. Just. Don't. Get it.

[Indpndnt]

21. Welcome to the club!

It's a curious phenomenon that does test one's patience and sense of humor. A lot. But, just like customer service in any store hears more complaints than people deliberately dropping by to praise the service (even if customer satisfaction in the store is rather high), I think we're hearing a lot of freak outs because those who aren't that/as/at all worried aren't posting nearly as much. It skews perception.

Just my take on it.

[speedoo]

5. Meh. Background noise.

Ohio is far more important.

[TroyD]

6. The state polls are definitely more important

BUT we can't ignore the National Polls.

They can end up having an effect, and they are definitely influencing Romney's momentum and the media narrative.

We've got to get Obama's National numbers up to match his state numbers.

[progressoid]

7. Yup.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter.

[Alekei_Firebird]

8. Romney was up by 2 yesterday, right?

[mzmolly]

16. Yesterday they were tied in the LV

category.

Obama is up 2 in the RV today.

[Alekei_Firebird]

18. Ok, thanks!

[mzmolly]

20. Welcome, by the way.

[magical thyme]

9. For the week of 10/4-10/10 -- their first that includes the full impact of the debate

with only the beginnings of the repeated two good jobs reports.

[helpisontheway]

11. Thanks for the explanation. Others like to just spread doom and gloom!nt

[regnaD kciN]

14. Exactly...

Today's survey jettisoned the day of (i.e. just before) the debate. I'm pretty sure that was a big polling day for Obama, while yesterday wasn't quite as good. I'll be interested to see the numbers that come out on Sunday, as that will be their first poll entirely from after the "Romney surge" of Thursday-Saturday.

Plus, keep in mind Gallup has a R+5 LV screen, which Nate Silver, among other, thinks is two to three points too high.

[magical thyme]

22. by Saturday we'll see the 1st full effect of last Friday's good jobs numbers

and the first couple days after today's 4-year low for New Unemployment Apps.

I'm looking forward to seeing renewed momentum for Pres O.

[magical thyme]

19. Good! On Tuesday, Gallup had Romney at 49% among likely voters

Obama holding steady with Romney's bump receding.

Both polls covered the entire debate period, but today's has 2 more days of after effects: lies revealed, Friday's good job and deficit numbers.

Today's big drop in new unemployment apps -- to 4 year low -- hasn't kicked in yet. That should bring a boost too.