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Fri Feb 26, 2016, 07:51 AM

HuffpoPollster updates national rolling average with 3 new polls.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

48.7% Clinton, 42.3% Sanders, closest they've been yet, despite one of the three polls giving Clinton a 15 point edge.

The three new ones.

Morning Consult NEW! 2/24 - 2/25 1,723 RV 50 35 - - - - - 10
Ipsos/Reuters NEW! 2/20 - 2/24 546 RV 49 44 - - - - - 7
IBD/TIPP NEW! 2/19 - 2/24 334 RV 45 43 - - - - - 6

Note that all three are 'registered voters', rather than 'likely voters'.

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Reply HuffpoPollster updates national rolling average with 3 new polls. (Original post)
Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 OP
JackInGreen Feb 2016 #1
Fast Walker 52 Feb 2016 #2
Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #3

Response to Erich Bloodaxe BSN (Original post)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 07:56 AM

1. It's something thats been vexing me

I see news all over that dem registration and turn out are down all over. I see clinton consistently ahead in registered/likely dem voter polls. It seems to me that these two would equal a GE loss. Am I wrong?

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Response to JackInGreen (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 08:07 AM

2. the enthusiasm gap is VERY disturbing between the GOP and Dems

 

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Response to JackInGreen (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 08:16 AM

3. Quite possibly.

But I think we're seeing as chaotic and unpredictable a race as we've seen in many decades. There's a lot of 'throw the bums out' sentiment, and both Clinton and Sanders are 'insiders' in one way or another. Sanders has been in Congress forever, even if he's never been in either major party that's getting such low favourables, and Clinton has been hanging around the limelight and running her perpetual Presidential Preparation Campaign since Bill set foot in the WH.

Trump is actually the only real 'outsider' in the game. And RW voters have been conditioned to vote on fear and hatred for decades, and he's providing plenty of both, but an enormous dose of braggadocio.

Clinton and Sanders, meanwhile, are being held up as standard bearers of two polar opposite camps on the left, and it may well be that a large number of primary voters are simply unwilling to move to one end or the other, and are just waiting to see who takes it. Will they come out in the GE? Is fear of a 'Gold House' enough of a motivator? I'm not sure it is, this time. The left has been demanding it be taken seriously for a number of election cycles now, and not really getting what most of the folks on the left want, which is economic stability, raised wages, and some sense of security. Toss into the mix that this is also the moment that black America has finally said 'enough is enough' to the status quo domestic terrorism employed against them by the government, and it suggests that many people on the left might opt out of the ballot box in the GE, unless whoever emerges victorious in the primary makes some serious promises and is believable enough.

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