Here on someting that happened overnight

[nadinbrzezinski]

for all of you to chew on... seriously chew on

Conservative donors have engaged a major GOP consulting firm in Florida to research the feasibility of mounting a late, independent run for president amid growing fears that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination.

A memo prepared for the group zeroes in on ballot access as a looming obstacle for any independent candidate, along with actually identifying a viable, widely known contender and coalescing financial support for that person. The two states with the earliest deadlines for independent candidates, Texas and North Carolina, also have some of the highest hurdles for independents to get on the ballot, according to the research.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/doors-gop-consulting-independent-219859#ixzz41KmBHsrQ

This potentially, with the threatened run from former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, will radically change the dynamics of this race. Potentially we could have four people vying for the presidency of the United States. This is also potentially the beginnings of a new conservative party in the United States, as one significant wing of the GOP coalition feels left out.

This will give the White House to whoever the Democrats run, short term The GOP did not do well in 1852 either, we should note. They were formed that year, when the Whig party finally collapsed. They ran some candidates, and did not do well. Now think about this for a minute. This faction of the GOP believes a Donald J Trump presidency is so dangerous to their interests, we are willing to bet this is the business faction, they are willing to give the White House to either a Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

They are willing to give the White House to somebody that they literally hate. Or give the White House to a socialist, and deal with a potential New Deal II later. This is what they are doing and if they run a woman, let's say Nicky Haley for a second, they will bleed many of the Clinton voters who are only voting on gender. And from polls, some are. The AP reports that is about 12 percent of voters for whom gender matters that much. But that will not be enough, I expect their sacrificial lamb, er candidate, to be a woman.

[tazkcmo]

1. Interesting

Thanks for this. Let me ask your professional opinion, what are the chances that this female candidate is Juliani?

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. They will go for a minority as well

[tazkcmo]

4. Thanks again!

So that rules out Rudy. No matter how much make up or how pretty the dress he/she will always be white. Thanks again for this story and others you've shared! I appreciate them.

[Raster]

7. Rudy's a mess. No one takes him seriously....

...except for Rudy.

[tazkcmo]

10. He reminds me of Uncle Milty.

Always good for a laugh!

[iAZZZo]

8. glad it rules out rudy

he has horrible taste in opera (no snark); lousy on innumerable political fronts as well

[tazkcmo]

12. Yeah BUT...

have you seen him nine inch heels?

[iAZZZo]

14. "have you seen him nine inch heels?"

no.......... i thought that was outlawed in nyc with 'stop 'n frisk'

do you have a pic?

[tazkcmo]

16. No pic

It was a private "affair". I can't say much else, I'm blushing already!

In this context, "stop and frisk" takes on a whole new meaning, huh?

[iAZZZo]

22. "In this context, "stop and frisk" takes on a whole new meaning, huh?"

when there's mention of nine-inch heels the mind wanders

[tazkcmo]

23. Mine was pretty focused!

wink wink nudge nudge elbow elbow. Know what I mean? Know what I mean?

[iAZZZo]

71. oh............ that particular "wink wink nudge nudge elbow elbow"

reminds me of a memory of wishing fawlty towers had included palin (michael, that is)

[ebayfool]

57. Umm ...

[randome]

9. Rudy in a dress! The ultimate compromise!

[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[Ferd Berfel]

39. Hey, all it takes is money

[leveymg]

3. As if it weren't already messy and unpredictable.

Remember John Anderson and the outcome in '92? Somebody may be banking on a repeat, but as they say in investing, past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. True

[leveymg]

15. Desperate times and desperate measures, and all that.

I thought that Bloomberg stated he might run if Bernie was the D candidate. What's changed since his last pronouncement? Maybe they've concluded that the Annointed One will lose the GE?

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. This is separate from Bloomberg

this is party insiders, so potentially we could have four people running for the presidency... grab that popcorn, because in that scenario NONE gets the majority of the popular vote. Three will be hard pressed,

[leveymg]

32. If no one gets a majority of the Electoral College, the House picks from the top 3

We all know what that means.

According to the Constitution: “If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most Electoral votes. Each state delegation has one vote” (Office of the Federal Register, from the 12th Amendment).Oct 30, 2012

[Barack_America]

5. I disagree that Bloomberg naturally steals votes from Trump.

I think there will be a number of centrist independents thrilled to jump from Hillary's camp.

Interesting.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. This is not bloomberg

this is Republican donors, sorry for not being that clear. But I will have to correct that at the home site, or rather edit for clarity

[Barack_America]

19. There's nothing clear about this election. Don't try.

A read it again, after seeing other responses. Curious.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. I edited for clarity

[Ferd Berfel]

40. agree - Bloomberg would attract Hillary supporters

and republicans. Splitting the thing wide open

[Raster]

6. Here's how I see it:

1. Clinton will win the Dem nomination (DWS, dirty tricks, super delegates, etc)
2. Trump will win the Rep nomination.
3. Clinton will *barely* win the election... the MNY GOP will throw their support to HRC.
4. The business end of the GOP (the money boys) will (apparently already doing so) form their own Third Party.
5. The MNY Party will run hard against HRC and win against her second term (Bloomberg/Haley)
6. The MNY Party will dominate for 12 more years.

[randome]

11. The MNY Party will have the same effect as the Tea Party has. We should welcome that.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[hedda_foil]

21. What does MNY stand for? I missed it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. money party

[hedda_foil]

27. Thanks, Nadin. I thought that was it but got confused by a post that separated MNY and "money guys"

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. You welcome

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. That is what they are banking on

and why Sanders will throw that to the dogs... but they are willing to risk it.

[Raster]

31. We live interesting times...

...perhaps too interesting...
...It Is What It Is.

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. Well I was expecting a boring primary

then Trump jumped in and after a week I knew that was the base revolt. We even went there in December and essentially called it at Reporting San Diego... this is going on in both parties.

Of course this is just a potential upsetting of the race. They still need to quality for the ballot, and after Perot, states, see Texas for example, made it considerably harder to go the independent run way.

[Raster]

35. This primary has been anything AND everything...but boring...

...and there is much more to go, for both sides.

[Ferd Berfel]

42. If clinton is the nom. She (WE) loose

[nadinbrzezinski]

43. I will not bother to keep telling them this

though I will blame every Clinton supporter (due to the toxic environment they have created) and the DNC for it, the day after Trump is elected. And I will gladly tell them, I told you so.

Never mind elite media is also starting to talk about this.

[Ferd Berfel]

44. Wonder what happens to DWS and the DNC - The Day After.....?

[nadinbrzezinski]

46. This base revolt on the D side is far from over

the OP is about the Rs, but both parties may be in for a dash for the past, and not quite 1852, but 1824. That election was the beginning of the end. Yes the democratic party survived, by nails, after a lot of reforms, and expanding the franchise, but just barely. Their counterparts disappeared. Both faced a base revolt, and their counterparts,gave way to the Whigs.

The Chinese Curse does apply here

[malokvale77]

58. Hmm.

There is definitely revolt on both sides of the aisle.

Thanks nadin.

[zappaman]

50. Lol!

[Raster]

62. I believe HRC is ballot box poison in the GE... no one on the face of the Earth conjures up...

...as much hate and ill will with the bat-shit crazy rank-and-file as Hillary. Mind you, I am not blaming Hillary for the rethuglican bat-shit crazy hate she inspires, they are, after all, BAT-SHIT FREAKIN' CRAZY, however, Bill and Hill - especially Hill - have done themselves no favors when dealing with the bat-shit crazies. That said, the rethuglicans have been rehearsing since 1992 for just this very electoral scenario. Every rethuglican shrieking head from Limpballs to Joe Scar have YEARS of hate material in the can just waiting to be used. Millions upon millions upon millions of bat-shit crazee rethuglican faithful will consider it their sole grand purpose in life TO VOTE AGAINST Hillary, and they will do so with a fervor of holy purpose; they will crawl through fire and across broken glass. I kid you not, there will be people WHO WILL POSTPONE DYING long enough to vote against Hillary. There are RABID, REDNECK RACISTS that would rather vote for President Obama than vote for Hillary Clinton.

[nadinbrzezinski]

64. Yeah,, but at this point a certain group does not want to hear it

hell, from time to time I get the lovely talking points when we go cover a news story... so it is what it is

[Raster]

68. of course not...The good Ship Destiny will sail with Bill and Hill no matter...

...the Clinton's have had a plan that started with Bill's first term as governor: He would be POTUS and then Hill would be the first female POTUS. It's a dynasty thing... they've got Kennedy stars in their eyes... It is Hillary's turn, EVERYONE owes this to her, and it would not matter if aliens were invading and intended to wipe the human race off of the face of the planet...

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. What is funny is that the SS Destiny crew is helping in the scuttling of the ship

and at this point is a Shakespearean play that we are watching.

While the will scream victory tonight, I will look for actual performance back in the engine room. I was told a few things already by actual people on the ground... low turnout was the first thing that seems to be turning to be correct. Seems those wrenches are already in the engine.

[Qutzupalotl]

26. I don't see how they would get the necessary signatures.

Many Rs are happy with Trump, or coming to terms with the idea. He is not so hated among the R population as he is among the wealthy donor class.

The wealthy hate him because he'll raise their taxes (like Bernie, which is why Bloomberg was considering a run if it were down to Trump v Sanders). The majority of R voters have been trained to pull the lever for anyone with an R by their name, and not question or even do basic research — hence the problem.

A three-person race in the OP's scenario would likely split the R vote, allowing Hillary to eke out a win. If Bernie gets the nom and Bloomberg's in, plus a dark horse against Trump, it's harder to predict, but I think Bernie would solidify the Dem vote and win — but without a majority and claim to a mandate, making his job harder. It would also lessen his ability to help down-ticket races, since you would have many more voters of all stripes participating.

I don't see Bloomberg or this dark horse gaining much traction against the party nominees, so I think they would both drop out before the election.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. Texas will be tricky because they need to find signatures that

come from people who did not vote in EITHER campaign.

This potentially is an interesting development, Also Bloomberg has been exploring this far longer than they have. The GOP is kind of waking up to this reality quite late to the party, Why I said, this potentially could change the race. It assumes they manage to do it, but this should be in everybody's radar.

[MSMITH33156]

30. I don't think they'll actually do this, but if they do

it's not about winning the Presidential Election. They will basically conclude that Trump is a lost cause, and so they want to run a candidate that will still get Republicans out to the polls. They are worried about what Trump will do down ballot if a significant percentage (think 3-5%) refuse to vote for him and don't show up to the polls. If they are looking at a race where the Dem is going to win anyway because Trump is unelectable, getting a 3rd candidate on the ballot to motivate non-racist Republicans makes sense.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. Oh trump is very electable in the current dynamics

extremely electable. This is the only way they have to upset this apple cart. And yes none of this surprises me. I have been expecting the GOP to split for ten years. The dynamics are just getting to the point where that is way too obvious.

By the way, lord bless their souls, after Perot gave the WH to Clinton in '92 (we are talking lessons learned, not wether that actually happened or not) State GOPs made it that much harder to quality, see Texas for example. So there is that.

[villager]

36. Wouldn't 1852 have been the Whigs? (Whose collapse gave rise to the GOP....)

But from that standpoint, yes, perhaps something similar is brewing....

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. Yup, the GOP, which was formed in 1852

did not do well that year

and edited for clarity at home base, and now here

[libtodeath]

38. I have just been having a similar discussion here and my feelings are this

If Hillary is the nominee the repuke establishment would be cozy with a grand bargain of having her as a center right President and them in Congress.

If Bernie is the nominee they will be in absolute panic and will back whoever they nominate to the end of time.

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. Except Trump

they are doing this (assuming it is not too late) because they fear a Trump presidency far more than either of the other two.

Let me count the ways... trade wars, ending trade treaties, closing borders... all that is extremely bad for business. The other two are better. Though there is a third possibility, given how long it took them to realize Trump is going to be the nominee (I could have told them as early as August of last year... but I read history). They might actually believe they can take the white house with a third party run.

[libtodeath]

45. It also would depend on their internals regarding coat tails for Bernie.

Or public groundswell for him.

They could always treat Trump like a third party President and align with Congressional Democrats to obstruct him but that would depend on what they think their 2018 and 2020 chances are.

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. I am counting on four years of congress blocking

anything any of the three tries to pass though. You thought they opposed Obama... they will oppose clinton on principle, they will oppose Bernie because he is a commie communist, socialist, argle bargle, and they will oppose trump on principle.

[libtodeath]

48. I dont think they will have much to oppose with Clinton,Bernie will be tooth and nail

Trump is hard to guess at,he has no real core so he may just be like Ventura was as Governor and they will humor him.

[nadinbrzezinski]

49. That is how I read this

becuase the ultimate triangulator is really hated by many republicans, It is visceral. So if they don't... their base revolt grows even faster. That is the calculus, Both parties have a base revolt and the republicans, bless their little hearts, now know it. The dems are sleep walking though it.

[libtodeath]

53. Very inciteful and thought provoking.

[NurseJackie]

51. They're screwed no matter what they do.

Looking ahead, the democratic party will be smart enough to handle whatever they morph into.

[thesquanderer]

52. They could go with Bloomberg, assuring it would not grow beyond a 3-person race

He was a Republican from 2001-2007 before becoming an independent.

They could go with Romney or Jeb! if they want someone well-known and mainstream Repub.

They could go with Sarah Palin just for the goof.

[nadinbrzezinski]

54. Not jeb

sore looser laws

[Raster]

66. JEB is officially toast. The old man is in sad shape, and burned too many bridges with his...

...angry screed at cheney* and rumsferatu*. Not that most of the background gop power rangers disagreed with Poppy's content, but they certainly disagreed with his presentation. He broke the first rule: thou shall not air the dirty laundry in public. There is very little Bush* juice left...

...and W.... ...they don't let him out much since the Bejing Olympics... he is OFFICIALLY the crazy uncle they keep locked in the attic.

Nope, no one is championing JEB, and I would not bet on JEB nor W at the GOP convention.

[PatrickforO]

55. I think the same thing is happening to the Democratic Party.

We have establishment, or pro-corporate Democrats and

Populist New Deal type Democrats.

I'm one of the latter, as I am sure many of you have noticed. There was I thought, a brilliant short essay on here just the other day that talked about how Clinton is running an election campaign and Sanders is creating a movement.

I buy that, and am very proud to be part of the Sanders movement. My hope is that Sanders gets into office and activates this huge (uuge!!) tens-of-millions strong movement so that it really becomes a political revolution. Because like many on here, I will happily sign petitions, email, write, call (every few minutes if asked) the DC offices of my Representative and Senators, or be part of a march.

Imagine, if you will, a five million person march on DC for Medicare for all Americans!

THAT is what I want.

[BillZBubb]

56. "a five million person march on DC for Medicare for all Americans"

Sorry you can't have that!

[nadinbrzezinski]

59. Yes, we have a base revolt on both sides

we went there back in December

[Raster]

70. Absolutely! As H2O Man brilliantly noted in his latest...

...Bernie Sanders is a movement for equal justice and economic equality, and it is NOT a cult of personality, at least nowhere in comparison as with Hillary.

Elect Hillary, on the other hand, has one main, overreaching purpose: to get Hillary Clinton elected. Nothing else is important. And make no mistake, IT MOST CERTAINLY IS THE CULT OF HILLARY.

[kgnu_fan]

60. I have been telling my friends about this possible GOP strategy for awhile and

often people think that is off base. However, I have been watching GOP trickery for awhile and they could execute this one at the most opportune moment--- they are waiting for Bernie's momentum to fall.

[nadinbrzezinski]

61. This is not about momentum

but a very tight legal requirement calendar. If they cannot get the necessary signatures in Texas, for example, they will not do it. I suspect Bloomberg, who has been hanging that sword of damocles, is farther along, if his is not bluster.

[kgnu_fan]

63. so what is his timeframe?

[nadinbrzezinski]

65. The politico story has the time line from a legal side

but here is the actual memo

http://static.politico.com/4b/2e/f597073c4ba18c25c6b1bc1396a4/independent-ballot-access.pdf

And I want to shake the hands of the reporter that managed to ferret this out... this was not necessarily a purposeful leak.

Though as an aside I have been predicting precisely this scenario, the party splitting, on this site for years. I have also been predicting our lovely cold civil war going hot. And for the ever loving god I hope to never be proven correct on that one. This one, last night it was like... m'kay... that has been a somewhat longish trend. These tend to be a tad shorter. But Trump finally did it.

I crack me up when I hear people like Rubio claim they are going to save the party from Trump. He came to office in one of the early waves that pointed to this process accelerating Yup, class of 2010, tea party class of 2010.

[kgnu_fan]

67. thank you for elaborating... nt