Clinton Will Build Her Biggest Lead on March 15. Bernie Sanders Will ERODE IT After That.

[Segami]

I'm keeping this short to put a very simple idea into your head. Because of the way the Democratic Party voting calendar is structured this year, Clinton's largest lead will occur on March 15. After that, most of Sanders' strongest states will vote.

What this means is simple:

* Hillary Clinton will grow her lead until the March 15 states have voted.

* Bernie Sanders will erase that lead — partly or completely — after March 15.

* How much of Clinton's lead he will erase depends on your not buying what the media is selling — that the contest is over.

* In most scenarios where Sanders wins, he doesn't retake the lead until June 7, when five states including California cast their ballots.

March 15 is the Ides of March; a good way to remember the date. The message — gear up for a battle after the Ides of March, and don't let the establishment media tell you what to think. They won't be right until the last state has voted.

~snip~

Now the data. One of the best data-stitians I've come across is a diarist at Daily Kos named MattTX. Matt is very good, professionally good, at this stuff. In a long, carefully-reasoned diary, "How Bernie Sanders can win the Democratic nomination," he lays out six scenarios for the race, in five of which Bernie Sanders wins the nomination (the other is a current baseline with no momentum). He presents them in a parallel fashion, and each presentation differs only in changing a small set of assumptions. Once you understand how to read the first one, you can read the others easily.

~snip~

Bottom line — Super Tuesday is upon us, and what's bad for Sanders supporters on March 1 is going to look worse for a few weeks. Stay heartened. Whatever the result in March, this isn't over until June, after Sanders' best states have voted as well.


cont'

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/03/clinton-will-build-her-biggest-lead-on.html

[revbones]

1. Good info. Thanks for posting. n.t

[cleopotrick]

2. I love you

[tk2kewl]

3. yup... 34 states left after today

[monmouth4]

4. This is great and reassuring news. I think I love you too..n/t

[Buddyblazon]

7. Did these places already primary/caucus?

Because I don't remember seeing anything about them already having done their thing.

[Buddyblazon]

11. Oh...

You were guessing. I didn't realize.

[yourpaljoey]

6. Agreed

[Gregorian]

8. We know all of this. The hardest part is putting up with the smug Hillary posters.

God they're a tedious bunch.

It's like right after the 2000 election, except this is with our own party. It's like we're already fighting off the soreloserman comments before we've even had an election. That's how smug they are. Yuck.

I should just stay away from this place for a while. I won't do that. They are going to have to put up with my worst, which everyone has seen now. I make no apologies since this is a noble effort to keep a corporate opportunist out of the white house.

[Lizzie Poppet]

17. The screeching of corporate minions is naught but white noise.

Filter that shit out...

[BernieforPres2016]

21. I recommend putting them on Full Ignore as fast as you see them

I have threads with 50 responses and only 10 show up. Not having to wade through the lies, deflection, gloating and complete BS makes this place much more tolerable. I also use the Trash Thread feature liberally.

[Samantha]

32. I had to do the same thing, and I highly recommend it

I always took pride in not using Ignore because I can truly handle a lot. But eventually, I felt the number of people being intentionally condescending, as well as deliberately trying to bait people into saying something that would be used to alert on them was obliterating the joy and excitement I have always felt during political elections. I just started putting these people who are deliberately obnoxious on Ignore. I have a really long Ignore list now, but I am actually starting to enjoy the race, the strategy and the thrill of a political election again. Even wrote a few threads again, and started noticing my blood pressure had returned to normal....

Anyone out there reading this who feels as I used to feel, don't let anyone chase you away from the race. Protect yourself from anyone antagonizing you and keep on enjoying the thrill of it all.

Sam

[Faux pas]

10. YES!

Yes and yes again!!!!!!!

[SidDithers]

12. And will still come up hundreds of delegates short...nt

Sid

[kristopher]

13. I expect to be making contributions to Bernie through to November.

Then I'll start saving for his inauguration party.

[SidDithers]

14. "The model currently projects Clinton to win by a bit more than 20 points in South Carolina"...

Oops.

Sid

[DCBob]

15. These big delegate states are all after 3/15 are all likely to go big for Hillary.

4/5/2016 Wisconsin
4/19/2016 New York
4/26/2016 Maryland, Pennsylvania
6/7/2016 New Jersey

Furthermore what makes you think California will go to Bernie??

[Segami]

18. It's over,..it's over.....

The Hillary/David Brock propaganda campaign reminds me of the leaflet drop propaganda tactics used by all war time military forces. Disinformation was used to confuse, break down morale & support within opposing sides.

Airborne leaflet propaganda is a form of psychological warfare in which leaflets (flyers) are scattered in the air. Military forces have used aircraft to drop leaflets to attempt to alter the behavior of combatants and non-combatants

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_leaflet_propaganda

[AzDar]

19. Hence, all the "Surrender Bernie!!" posts. Not happening...

[Blue_Tires]

22. One way or another Sanders will have to reverse his trend (so far)

in states with large non-white populations...

I don't know how that's supposed to happen...

[jfern]

30. Oklahoma and Colorado aren't super white

[xynthee]

23. Too bad the media narrative is that it's all over

It's a really effective demoralizer for me even though I know better, but everyday citizens who don't follow this closely will be especially prone to just checking out when we need them the most!

Here's hoping they're less prone to discouragement than I am (most people are, thank goodness)!!

[Segami]

24. That's their objective....its been an effective military tool...

Disinformation, misinformation, lies, distortions.......The main ingredients one should expect when they watch Clinton Theater.

See #18

[kath]

25. Kick! Important article - avoid the media SPIN!

[Merryland]

26. Great post - keep them coming.

We need to be reminded of this, the media crap is so toxic.

[retrowire]

27. KnR. nt

[kath]

28. Kick! Important article. Ignore the bullshit media SPIN!

[Bread and Circus]

29. But Daily Kos told me to shut up and grow up after March 15th!!!

[sabrina 1]

31. Yes he will and they know it. Which is why they are pulling out all the stops, lying about delegates

their online forums issueing ultimatums and declaring victory when THEY know just what a threat Bernie is.

And no, we are not fooled.

She gets the conservo Dems, Bernie gets Progressives, Indies, Moderate Repubs, Greens, Libertarians, Women, Progressive Minorities and she has ZERO crossover appeal.

[BainsBane]

33. 50.14% of pledged delegates will be determined after March 15

Which means it is mathematically impossible for Sanders to win if he is behind after those results come in. https://ballotpedia.org/2016_presidential_nominations:_calendar_and_delegate_rules#
He has to be even with her on March 15 to have a shot.

That's not the media. It's arithmetic.

[kath]

34. Kick. ignore the full-of-shit media.

[Cobalt Violet]

35. K & R!

Maybe she won't build as big of a lead as the media is hoping for.

[Cobalt Violet]

36. yeah he has been eroding it since.

Hope he keeps eroding!