Hillary Clinton’s Super Tuesday Victories Had A Major Weak Spot - ThinkProgress

[WillyT]

Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2016, 09:54 PM - Edit history (1)

Hillary Clinton’s Super Tuesday Victories Had A Major Weak Spot
by Alice Ollstein - ThinkProgress
Mar 2, 2016 4:52 pm


CREDIT: AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

<snip>

FAIRFAX, VA — When the dust had settled on Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton had won decisively in seven states, buoyed by a wave of support from female voters, voters over 45, and voters of color.

Yet Clinton lost the youth vote to rival Bernie Sanders in every single state that held a caucus or primary this week.

After also losing the millennial vote by wide margins in Iowa and New Hampshire, the results reveal a persistent weakness for Clinton. In 2012, young Americans cast the deciding votes to sweep Barack Obama to victory over Mitt Romney, even though only half of eligible voters under 29 actually turned out to vote.

Millennials could have an even bigger impact this fall, when they will make up, for the first time, as big a percentage of the electorate as baby boomers.

Though Clinton won Virginia, where she held last-minute get-out-the-vote rallies on Monday, she lost voters ages 18-29-years-old by 39 points, and lost first-time voters by 8 points.

At Clinton’s rally at George Mason University on Monday, a few hundred students and community members packed into a room in George Mason’s student “hub” to hear Clinton’s pitch. The event drew a much smaller crowd than Sanders’ appearance at the school back in October, and many of the students at Clinton’s rally told ThinkProgress they are either undecided or supporters of Bernie Sanders.

Some students, including George Mason University senior Maaz Ahmad, even said they may refuse to vote for Clinton if she wins the Democratic primary. “I wouldn’t mind going third party,” he said. “I just cant really get with her. Pretty much, out of everyone, there’s only one that I have a positive outlook on, and that’s Bernie.”

A growing online movement called “Bernie or Bust” has been urging Sanders supporters to write in his name or vote for the Green Party if Clinton advances to this fall’s general election. The threat of a splintered Democratic Party scares young voters like sophomore Criminology major William Johnson, who told ThinkProgress the Left needs to “coalesce and not fracture, no matter who wins.”

But much of the onus for unifying young progressives, he emphasized, is on Clinton...

<snip>

More: http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/02/3754874/hillary-students-virginia/

[amborin]

1. yes, and so far, i can't find vote by income breakdown; can anyone find it?

[WillyT]

2. This Has Some Of That...

Link: http://coreyrobin.com/2016/03/02/super-tuesday-march-theses/

[monicaangela]

55. Very interesting article WillyT

Thank you.

[WillyT]

56. You Are Quite Welcome !!!

[amborin]

71. this is outstanding, thanks!

especially this:

Sanders beat Clinton among voters making under $50k, and voters making between $50k and $100k.
The only income group she won was voters making over $100k.

Among first-time voters, Sanders got a whopping 71% of the vote.

Among independents, Sanders got 65% of the votes.

Sanders won among very liberal voters and moderate voters.

the income info confirms my suspicion

[WillyT]

72. You Are Quite Welcome !!!

[amborin]

73. the link wa so good that I wanted to see who the person was; found this good analysis:

it would probably be a good OP; basically, nominate Bernie or welcome President Trump

I think Dems are resting a bit too easy on ‘the Republicans really screwed it up for themselves this time.’ (A lot of Dems are not resting easy at all, but some are being a bit smug and complacent about Republican problems and disarray.) In the modern era, every Presidential contest should be a 51-49 nailbiter – even a hanging-chad-biter – by rights. I would say this one is shaping up more 65-35, to the Dem’s advantage. (I’m talking about odds of winning, overall, not predicting vote percentages.) But that still gives the Reps a 1/3 chance of shooting the moon: controlling Congress, the White House and the Supreme Court. So ‘Republicans screwed the pooch’ and ‘Dems staring down barrel of defeat and devastation’ are both true, and should be held true together. Which is why the President should do what he can to confirm anyone – even a moderate conservative – to the Scalia seat in the next year, as insurance against dire, downside risk. In this thread someone suggested Obama should nominate Richard Posner and I realized, to my own mild surprise, that I would be quite happy with that result, all things weighed and balanced and considered. I’ll take a Posner in the hand over the threat of another Scalia on the bench. I’m a moderate squish.

The reason is basically this: there isn’t anything I think we might get otherwise, which a Reaganite like Posner would squash. But I do think there are ultra-right radical results we might get, which a Reaganite like Posner would squash. The Supreme Court isn’t going to be a site of left-wing judicial activism, but it might be a site of right-wing judicial activism. So shutting down the latter, at the cost of foreclosing the former, is optimal. Erecting a Reaganite firewall against Ted Cruz is a sound Dem strategy.

But, lest you accuse me of being a moderate squish, another thought. I don’t think Hillary is more electable than Bernie. I think Bernie is more electable than Hillary. Therefore, squishes like me, freaking out about that 35% chance that the Republicans will run the table, should support Bernie on sheer safety grounds if nothing else. Being a pragmatic trimmer does not mean being most electable. There’s a reason the Whigs haven’t been doing so well in elections for some time. ‘Millard Fillmore’ is not a name to conjure with. (I also like Bernie better on substance, by the by, but if I bought Hillary’s argument that she is more electable, I would support her for that.)

There is polling data that supports this, but, being a philosopher, I’ll do it fake a priori style.

The Republican nominee is most likely to be Trump, and overwhelmingly likely to be Trump or Cruz. The establishment lane is just a pile of burning wrecks.

It seems crazy that Trump could win in the general but, then again, no one has gotten rich betting against him so far.

Suppose the rules have changed. How might they have, such that Trump is a threat not just to the GOP establishment but to Dems in the general? Answer: conservatives and establishment GOP-types all hold their noses and pull the lever for him, because negative partisanship means they fear any Democrat worse. Trump does badly among minorities but maybe no worse than Romney. (Hey, when it comes to numbers that awful, the GOP might just start humming Kris Krisofferson: “freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.” And a lot of people apparently were huge “Apprentice” fans. Go figure.) And – this is the key – Trump blows a victory-sized hole in Democratic white working class support. Basically, Sean Trende turns out to have been right, after all, even though it sounded far-fetched back in 2013. That is, the strange phenomenon we’ve seen in the GOP primary – actual economic class divisions emerging – just continues right on into the general. It turns out: there’s nothing the matter with Kansas anymore. Ergo, Trump.

http://crookedtimber.org/2016/02/17/a-few-us-election-related-thoughts/#more-37763

[Wednesdays]

4. Here's the CBS exit poll stats on income in the Oklahoma primary

http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/oklahoma/exit/

I think from there you can navigate to the stats in other states, as well.

Here's the list of states...you can click on them and another link will take you to the income stats.

A quick glance at some of them seems to show that Hillary Clinton is favored by people with income over $100,000 and Bernie Sanders favored by people with income under $100,000.

[CharlotteVale]

3. K&R

[desmiller]

5. K & R & Berned

[comradebillyboy]

6. More sour grapes. If you don't like the

results of the voting do what you will, but no one is going to kiss your ass to keep you from voting for Trump.

[TM99]

7. Are you a registered Democrat?

If so you are being foolish with this kind of trash talk.

The unregistered left has been told to kiss the New Dem party's ass for over 30 years now.

No more. You want our votes, then run someone who actually is a big tent Democrat. And right now for the first time in 30 years, that is Sanders.

If it ends up with Clinton as the nomination, expect a fall defeat. Y'all can not win without the independent vote and the youth vote. The youth feel extremely disenfranchised. They are forced into debt by a system they did not create, and when they want out, they are called naive kids who just want free shit. And we independents are damned sick of holding our noses. Sorry it ain't going to happen this time.

[marions ghost]

9. with ya

Independents + Youth + Sanders liberals = win

[comradebillyboy]

10. Indeed I am and I vote in every election

I simply don't care who you vote for. You have free will, do as you wish.

[TM99]

11. Then remember that thought and what

you say here now before you start going off on us with a condescending and arrogant tone.

I vote in every election as well. And you better believe it, I am free to vote for whomever I choose.

[Kittycat]

58. 23 years! #myvoteisnotforsale

Election after election we are forced to slide further to the right, sacrifice our values our party. We're told to get in line, it's for the best. For whom? Things aren't getting better, they're getting worse. Don't tell me, but - but - but. I tell you this, stop giving in and letting them tell you what to do. Remind them who we are, and pull them back to us. Hillary & DWS might have put a big fat for sale sign on our party, but #myvoteisnotforsale They got it wrong this time.

[billhicks76]

20. Election Over Because Independents Will Never Vote For Hillary

Why can't people get this through their heads. Its called reality. Hope a primary trophy win was worth it but it doesnt mean crap if lose the general which is all but guaranteed after seeing the lack of new democratic voters registered compared to Trump supporters. And then we have the specter of a third party candidate on either side. Gonna get weird.

[TM99]

24. It is just denial plain and simple.

I have said it several times. The Democratic Party establishment will be a penny smart and run a vile and viscous balls to the wall campaign directed against Sanders, and it is pound foolish because it will alienated the majority leftist in and out of the party that they would have needed to win the GE.

[billhicks76]

44. Most Amazing Stat Ever

Super Tuesday Voter Turnout Numbers By Party :
2008 : Republicans 5,025,685 Democrats : 8,228,763
2016 : Republicans 8,307,884 Democrats : 5,557,243

[TM99]

47. These numbers should scare the left

and terrify the Democratic Party.

[grasswire]

59. It's not good to compare 2008 and 2016 turnout.

2008 was a transformative election, once in a century. Numbers were driven for Democrats by that. The same is not true this year. First woman president apparently doesn't have that same attraction for anyone but older women.

[TM99]

60. 2008 was not a transformative election.

It was with regards to ending the Bush GOP rule. That we also had the joy of electing the first AA president who turned out to be a moderate 1980's Republican is just the gravy.

This year should be the same according to your logic. After all, Democrats are trying to now elect the 1st female President. But it is not.

[grasswire]

61. this is not, that's what I said.

But I suspect that many people here would disagree with you when you say that 2008 was not transformative for them.

[TM99]

63. Subjectivity versus objectivity.

That is all.

One thing is holding true. Americans like to turn over the reigns of power generally every eight years to the opposite party. Dems turned out strong in 2008 to do that. The GOP is turning out strong in 2016 to do the same.

Then and now, Obama needed the youth and the independents on the left to secure his victory. That became even more true in 2012.

Clinton has put down the youth while her surrogates have practically dismissed them as naive and foolish wanting 'free stuff'. And unaffiliated leftists just aren't going to hold their noses for a candidate like Clinton. She is not only a neoliberal but she lies and she is a warmonger.

[grasswire]

65. you say that GOP is turning out strong in 2016

And yet our man Bernie beats every freaking one of theirs in the polls. Hillary, not so much.



Good news.

[TM99]

66. That is why I am shocked that

Dems can't see the writing on the wall.

Sanders has a chance to extend a Democratic White House for eight more years. Against the odds and the turnout he is still beating the GOP in the GE.

Penny smart, pound foolish, I keep saying.

[billhicks76]

74. Its Transformational On Republican Side

And would be for us if Sanders were not suppressed.

[grasswire]

76. yes, you are absolutely right!

The election of a man who has been a Democratic Socialist and an early figure in the Civil Rights movement would be transformational!

Like FDR.

[GreatGazoo]

62. Because the GOP is the craziest circus in town -- big numbers fueled by Trump vs Anti-Trump

[billhicks76]

75. Elmer Season!

[grasswire]

57. at some point ya gotta wonder if that is the intent.

They persevere against all evidence. Having already lost Congress. Perhaps DWS is working for someone other than Democrats.

[2banon]

78. exactly. I had the impression today, she's beginning to realize it

she seemed to quit her condescending rhetoric against Bernie supporters (generally) and rat***King Bernie's policy positions. Turned her attention to Drumpf instead. At least from the bits and pieces I heard in various media spots. Maybe she finally got the memo. dunno.. and likely not to last with more Bernie victories coming up.

[randome]

30. Why didn't Independents vote for him on Super Tuesday?

Or if they did, it obviously wasn't enough, was it?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You have to play the game to find out why you're playing the game. -Existenz[/center][/font][hr]

[billhicks76]

41. Primaries Are Closed To Outsiders

[Stryder]

22. I have never been a registered anything.

I vote at least every 2 yrs. I've always, til now, let the primaries sort themselves out.
Ohio is a semi open primary, so come the Ides I'll choose the Dem ballot.
From what I can gather that will make me a registered Dem.
(Not feeling any great desire to remain such, but we'll see)
My first vote was for the most honorable President James Carter and in the 36 yrs since
I have nothing but "held my nose".
No more.

[TM99]

26. I registered

as a Democratic just so I could vote for Sanders here in Arizona. I will return to my independent status in a few weeks.

I have never held my nose and don't plan to start. I never voted for Bill Clinton, and I saw through Obama's Hope & Change marketing scam. I do always vote, and I vote leftist. Mostly I have voted third party at the presidential level but I have often voted for Democrats down ticket. I simply won't, however, vote for them if they are attached, affiliated, connected, or whatever with neoliberalism.

[MJJP21]

27. I am registered and

I do vote in every election. I said before I would support the nominee even if it is Hillary but now after what I have seen it is either Bernie or Trump and the rest of the votes go to dems in the senate and house. If it isn't Sanders the goal should be to tie the hands of the president by concentrating on the other offices.

[TM99]

33. There are more and more registered Democrats feeling this way.

23% last fall was the number of registered Dems. It has rising to around 30% right now because of Sanders and so many closed primary states. But it will return to that previous number or lower before the election given how Clinton, the DNC, and the party establishment have acted.

That number can never win the GE for the Democratic Party. And they will have only themselves to blame.

[Stryder]

82. Hmmm....

I've heard worse strategies. Yes I will definitely vote down ticket.
Maybe we've learned a thing or two about obstruction from the masters.
If the unthinkable happens.
As for the Pres. if Bernie don't get the nod?
I seriously don't know. I am gut wrench torn. So I will let that go
for now, this rodeo is nowhere near over. But for anyone out there
freaking on Dem loyalty crap, I will say this, My vote my choice full fucking stop.
The end of the free world on my shoulders, hold your nose bullshit's getting,
gotten waaaay old.

[JudyM]

8. Forget the grapes & ass-kissing. It's a principled objection to her lying & cheating & corruption.

We don't have to accept her win-at-all-costs ethic and self-serving above-fair play M.O.
Many genuinely find it morally repulsive.

And yes, ethics matter in a democracy.

[bvf]

16. That's twice I've seen

"repulsive" used in connection with the Clinton campaign in as many days.

Just yesterday a friend of mine (an ardent feminist in her 50s with a long history of civic volunteerism) texted me that she had just returned from early voting here in Ohio and had cast her vote for Sanders. Along with "repulsive," she had some other choice words for Clinton. Not worth the hide to share them here.

[billhicks76]

21. I Have Yet To Meet A Single Clinton Supporter At My Job

Its all Sanders or Trump.

[redstateblues]

31. Everybody I knew voted for McGovern

How is it possible that Nixon won?

[billhicks76]

45. Lol...Good Point

But I still believe only Bernie can win...this isnt Nixon vs McGovern although Hillary does remind me of Nixon with her deceitfulness.

[bvf]

49. My friend also has a wicked sense of humor

and (for a short time) had me believing she was going for Trump. She actually went to the Trump office (it was closed) to pick up a yard sign to plant in a friend's yard as a goof.

Same here wrt Sanders vs Trump. I'm cursed at the moment to be stuck in a suburban neighborhood that I'd be willing to bet is mostly Trump people. *sigh*

When I was canvassing for Obama in 2012, another canvassed who came to my house told me that my neighbor across the street had just slammed the door in her face.

[Stryder]

36. GOhio!

I like voting day of. Semi small rural setting. Most always run into someone I know.
Crazy thing is even if we're voting 180 out, nobody calls the other any words
containing the letter group "tard" or pulls a knife or nothing. A bit strange after
spending time on the boards these days. It's almost as if people are more civil
without the anonymity of the Intertubes... Go configure.

[bvf]

53. In an ideal world, we could dispense

with the anonymity.

Nothing beats real human interaction.

(Like "go configure" a ton, btw. Reminds me of a co-worker I once had in IT. We'd have drunken debates about the relative merits of "pi" vs. "tau" and similar stuff.)

[Milliesmom]

12. How many of you have went and took the pledge to secure his nomination ??

https://citizensagainstplutocracy.wordpress.com/2015/07/22/bernie-or-bust-pledge-is-the-miracle-senator-sanders-needs-to-secure-party-nomination/


it's even trending on twitter and will be on Fox news.



Pledge count to date

51,500+


Blog Stats
•154,842 hits

[kentuck]

13. I truly believe that...

..."youth shall be served".

When all the world is young, lad,
And all the trees are green;
And every goose a swan, lad,
And every lass a queen;
Then they, for boot and horse, lad,
And round the world away;
Young blood must have its course, lad,
And every dog his day.

http://proverbhunter.com/proverb/youth-will-be-served/

[Helen Borg]

14. Grotesque smile...

[RoccoR5955]

15. I wonder how much

they had to pay for that selfie?
I heard on Stephanie Miller's show, one of her guests say that she paid enough to get a picture AND talk to Hellery.

[bvf]

18. At first glance I thought they were

smiling at a check from Goldman Sachs.

And if that wasn't a typo you had there (even if it was) it was funny!

[passiveporcupine]

17. Yes, but Bernie also has a weak spot and it's older African Americans

they each need to try to find away around these weak spots. I think Bernie needs ot focus on Hispanics and union members. Who does Hillary need to focus on?

[jwirr]

19. And most of the onus is Clinton. The only effort I have seen

so far is "Be nice to Bernie supporters. We are going to need them." This to her supporters.

I suspect that will not be enough.

[George II]

23. Her weak spot is the youth vote? Exit polls also showed that voters over 45 turned out in much...

...greater numbers than voters younger than that.

[Trust Buster]

25. That's nothing compared to Bernie's weaknesses yesterday.

Hillary's lowest share of the African American vote was in Oklahoma and even there she received 71% of the African American vote. Overall, she received 66% of the Hispanic vote yesterday. In Texas, she beat Sanders with the Hispanic vote 45 percentage points. You can have the un-dependable Millenial vote. We're happy with our demographics.

[TM99]

29. You might want to look at the actual math instead of those pretty numbers.

For example in SC, yes, she won over 80% of the AA vote. What percentage of the overall vote was AA? 61%

Now for bonus points, what was the voter turnout? If you said 12% you would be right.

So think for a minute about just how paltry 80% of 61% of 12% actually is and then you can begin to see what the reality of the GE without independents and the youth vote (no matter what there race or gender) will actually be.

[thereismore]

37. That was very well said! I think her weakness is deeper than his. She benefited from the calendar.

[Trust Buster]

38. Congratulations, You are using Republican logic that has worked so well for them in the recent past.

[TM99]

40. Sorry son, math is math.

So you can't actually refute them, can you?

Instead you just insult me.

[Trust Buster]

42. I did not insult you. I made an observation.

Super Tuesday included states scattered all over the country. Hillary beat Bernie by wide margins with both the African American and Hispanic votes. Those numbers cannot be refuted. Those numbers are very bad news for Bernie IMO.

[TM99]

46. Yes, by saying it was 'GOP logic' you did indeed.

I don't dispute the primary. I am looking at the forest. You and so many others are obsessing over the trees. You are not seeing the big picture. Voter turnout is down by half compared to 2008. It doesn't matter the percentage of minority votes if the turnout is that low in the GE. Clinton does not inspire enthusiasm. Independents are bailing on the Democratic Party due to Clintons rat-fucking campaign in droves. And the youth vote is being dismissed as naive and foolish for wanting 'free stuff'. Without all of these in a low turn out election year, yes, the GOP will win and win handsomely. They are turning out the vote in this primary season at a 2 to 1 advantage over Dems and upwards of 3 to 1 over 2008 for themselves.

This is simply logic and math and seeing the whole damned picture. You are just repeating a mantra.

[Trust Buster]

48. I don't agree with your analysis. And, that IS the same analysis employed by Republicans.

Ironically, after you said I insulted you, I found a new thread whose title suggested that Massachusetts' results looks like a map of a Democrat vs. a Republican. Go check it out. Bernie is not doing well in high population areas with minorities. He's doing well in rural areas. That's not an insult, that's a fact.

[TM99]

50. It is not the same analysis. It is simply the correct one.

I saw that thread and dismissed it. Clinton barely won ONE blue state. She won all the solid red GE states in the south. She lost all of the solid blue GE states including CO, MN, and VT. She also lost a surprisingly progressive OK.

CO and MN have very large urban areas as well. So that thread and your analysis is still cherry-picking and a mantra of inevitability instead of a sound full picture analysis.

[Trust Buster]

51. With her huge advantage amongst AA and Hispanics

Hillary will win Florida, Louisiana, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. But, we'll see.

[TM99]

52. I can see her winning Louisiana and Florida

easily. One is solid red and conservative. Democrats in LA are total neoliberals. Fl will be hers because of the Cuban vote and rich whites.

I see Michigan and Ohio going for Sanders but not in a large spread.

Illinois will solidly be for Sanders. Jackson, BLM, the death of McDonald and Emmanuel being her friend are going to tank her there.

[SoapBox]

32. I keep hearing percentages...

But never saw numbers...total registered Democrats...how many actually voted, to come up with the much ballyhooed numbers.

Nevada had a pathetic turnout total...I'm assuming most of the Tuesday numbers were pathetic as well.

[thereismore]

39. I hear MN had high turnout. nt

[wyldwolf]

28. “Bernie or Bust" = Bernie Bobs!

[SoapBox]

34. Oh goody...

Another one for my large list.

[wyldwolf]

35. Bernie Roberts?

[SDJay]

43. It Doesn't Do Any Good for SBS

to have a voting bloc firmly in his corner if that voting bloc doesn't get its ass to the polls. Older folks vote in much higher percentage than younger ones. That's not news. Obama got the young folks to the polls in droves in 08 and to a lesser extent in 12 and he won the GE comfortably twice. If SBS can't get the young voters to go and, you know, vote, he's going to lose the primary.

[Warren DeMontague]

54. Apparently the answer for some of DU's HRC supporters is to insult them even more.

Damn whippersnappers need to GET IN LINE, "the dears"




So I ask- who benefits from everyone from DWS to Steinem to Albright to our fine Hillary people here, relentlessly condescending and insulting younger voters?

[Beacool]

64. Hey, come November young people can vote for the nominee or not.

I don't have college debt, I'm not looking for an abortion and neither am I starting a new career. If they think that life under a Trump presidency would be better, then they can sit on their hands or vote third party. Personally, my life wouldn't change that much either way.

BTW, AA Millenials voted for Hillary in much larger numbers than for Sanders.

[grasswire]

67. So you're okay with Trump now? nt

[Beacool]

68. No, but if Millenials can't tell the difference between a Democrat and Trump, then it's on them

if they don't vote for the party's nominee.

[WillyT]

69. It's Getting Harder And Harder To Tell The Difference Between Democrats And Republicans...

I'll Give You That.

[BainsBane]

80. Particularly true for those

who insist a minority of voters should determine the nominee and president rather than the majority, or insist there is something wrong with people of color for not voting how a particular group of voters insist they should, or argue that Donald Trump is the same as Clinton, showing a complete and total disregard for anything resembling policy. Yes, it's become increasingly clear to me that it is becoming difficult to distinguish such "Democrats" from the far right of the Republican Party, particularly since they target the same people---unions, civil rights activists, Planned Parenthood, etc. When they demonstrate that they are willing to let the SCOTUS go to the GOP because the rights of the majority of Americans are too inconsequential. Indeed, they look a lot like Republicans to me. After all, the first ones to complain about Wall Street in recent politics was the Tea Party. That is how they started as a movement, and how we are told that no other issue could possibly be important. That ironically that is used to justify the election of a billionaire who has made his fortune on Wall Street shows the entire argument is without any semblance of logic, but it also points to the far more overriding concern for such voters, which is quite obviously not about Democratic or democratic values.

EarlG apparently agrees:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=294884&sub=trans

That's about one of 7 recently PPR'd for the same thing.

[grasswire]

70. well, you see...

Millenials are pretty smart. They have strong BS detectors. They know the difference between a corporate loving opportunist and a genuine honest and trustworthy candidate.

But you keep talking like that, and alienating them further.

[Beacool]

79. They can do whatever they want.

After all, a Trump presidency will affect their lives more than they will affect mine. I would think that they would be smart enough to realize the consequences of not voting in November.

[AzDar]

77. K & R

[WillyT]

81. Kick !!!